581
FXUS63 KJKL 102025
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
325 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK.
- AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT, PRIMARILY BETWEEN I-64 AND THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY/KY-80
CORRIDORS.
- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SOAKING RAIN THIS WEEKEND, WITH
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED TO THE WARMEST LEVELS SINCE LATE
DECEMBER FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY AND SINCE EARLY JANUARY FARTHER NORTH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
READINGS FOR THE DAY THUS FAR RANGE FROM 58F AT FLEMING MASON
AIRPORT IN THE NORTH TO 74F AT BOONEVILLE. DEW POINTS HAVE ALSO
SOARED INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE
GUSTED INTO THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE AT TIMES, HASTENING THE MELTING
OF THE SNOW THAT REMAINS. THE LONG-STANDING DAILY RECORD HIGH OF
69F AT LONDON, SET IN 1959, WAS BROKEN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH WFO JACKSON'S DAILY RECORD HIGH OF 67F, SET IN 1993
AND TIED IN 2009. THE MILD AND MOIST AIR MASS HAS MOVED IN ON A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM AN ~1004 MB LOW NORTH OF SAULT STE. MARIE DOWN
THROUGH LOWER ONTARIO AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CLEVELAND, OH TO
INDIANAPOLIS, IN TO DALLAS-FORT WORTH, TX.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES,
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM, PROPAGATES ESE TO OVER NEW
ENGLAND/ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM WHILE THE SURFACE
LOW TRACKS TO NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. THIS WILL DRAG THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT NW-SE THROUGH THE JKL CWA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SHOW SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN THE MOIST AIR MASS FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT DROPS
IN. THE BEST CHANCES FOR A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ALONG/SOUTH OF
I-64, WHERE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT LEVELS WILL BE LESS
ATTENUATED BY LINGERING SNOW COVER, AND ALSO NORTH OF THE HAL
ROGERS PARKWAY/KY-80 CORRIDOR AS INSTABILITY WANES DEEPER INTO THE
NIGHT. (THE 10/12Z HREF SHOWED 10-25% THUNDER PROBABILITIES IN
THIS ZONE.) RAP MLCAPE OF UP TO 600 J/KG AND EBWD OF UP TO 40 TO
50 KTS COULD SUPPORT A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IF LOW-LEVELS REMAIN MIXED
AND LONG, STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS COULD PROMOTE SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
DEEPER ROTATING UPDRAFTS. MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT AROUND 0.25 INCH
OF RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THOUGH BRIEF DOWNPOURS COULD
LEAVE BEHIND A QUICK 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH LOCALLY. THE CONVECTION
SHOULD BEGIN AROUND THE I-64 CORRIDOR ~00Z AND DEPART INTO
VIRGINIA BY AROUND ~09Z. MODEST LOW-LEVEL 925 HPA CAA WILL THEN
ENSUE BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
FAIRLY PERSISTENT UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER LINGERING FOR MANY AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS ADVECTION TURNS NEUTRAL.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, A BREEZY AND VERY WARM AFTERNOON WILL
GIVE WAY TO SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING NEAR I-64 AND SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES STARTING IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE FAVORED FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH OF I-64 TO NEAR 50F
ALONG THE KY-TN BORDER. SKIES TREND CLEARER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
LOOKING AT 500-MB FEATURES ACROSS CONUS, THERE'S LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHEAST US, AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
THROUGH THURSDAY, A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER
WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S, WHILE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 30S, THE LOWEST LEVELS MAY
REMAIN TOO DRY TO SEE PRECIPITATION ALOFT MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. AT
CURRENT, POPS REMAIN UNDER 10% AND AT MOST, MAYBE SOME DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES COULD OCCUR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S
THROUGH THE DAY, COOLING INTO THE MID TO 20S FOR MOST. SOME AREAS IN
THE NORTHEAST MAY DIP INTO THE TEENS.
THROUGH FRIDAY, AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW, THE ONE OFF THE COST OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WILL PROGRESS EAST INTO THE 4-CORNERS AREA OF
THE SOUTHWEST, AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SATURDAY. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT ON THE
STRENGTH, PHASING, TRACK, AND MORE OF THE FINER DETAILS, HOWEVER THE
OVERALL THINKING IS THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL PROGRESS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST US, WITH RAIN AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT OCCURRING ACROSS
KENTUCKY. AT CURRENT, AMOUNTS ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD, BUT THAT IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOWS TRACK. CURRENT REMAINING
SNOW AND ICE SHOULD WHITTLE DOWN FROM WARMER TEMPERATURES EARLIER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD HELP MITIGATE RIVER FLOODING, WITH
NO RIVER FORECAST POINTS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REACH ACTION STAGE.
THE KENTUCKY RIVER AT HEIDELBERG IS THE CURRENTLY THE CLOSEST
FORECAST POINT TO ACTION, BUT STILL REMAINS 2 FEET UNDER. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY, WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO
LOWER 50S TO THE SOUTH. AT NIGHT, TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S ACROSS VALLEYS, AND UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ALONG RIDGE TOPS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 50S THROUGH
THE DAY AND NEAR 40 AT NIGHT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE QUIET WEATHER AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD
TO TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO MID 50S TO LOW 60S MONDAY, AND THE LOW
TO MID 60S ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, AND WILL LAST
THROUGH TODAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME DIPS INTO IFR CONDITIONS. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT SJS, JKL, SYM, OR IOB BUT
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPORAL/SPATIAL DETAIL WAS TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN THE TAF. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
OVERNIGHT, BUT MVFR (PERHAPS SOME IFR) CEILINGS WILL LAST LONGER.
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR ON WEDNESDAY COULD BE SLOW, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON/HAL
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