225
FXUS63 KJKL 111234
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
734 AM EST WED FEB 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MILDER
READINGS THEN FORECAST TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SOAKING RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 734 AM EST WED FEB 11 2026
RAIN HAS EXITED THE AREA AND SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN MAY PLACES.
THERE ARE MORE LOW CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH WHICH WILL
AFFECT AT LEAST THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW IN HOW THESE CLOUDS EVOLVE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EST WED FEB 11 2026
RAIN LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
FORECAST PREPARATION TIME, BEHIND A COLD FRONT DEPARTING TO THE
SOUTH OVER TN. RAIN WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WITH FAIR WEATHER WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON
THURSDAY. AFTER RECORD WARMTH ON TUESDAY, THE NEW AIR MASS WILL
BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONCERNS SKY
CONDITION. MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS OUR CURRENT CLOUDS TRY TO CLEAR
OUT, A SHALLOW, LOW CLOUD LAYER CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH
OH WILL REACH THE JKL FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON HOW LONG THEY
LINGER. THE GFS HAS ENOUGH WARMING, MIXING, AND DRYING TO LARGELY
GET RID OF THE CLOUDS BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, THE NAM
STUBBORNLY HOLDS ONTO THEM THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT FOR AT LEAST
THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. HAVE LEANED THE FORECAST A
LITTLE BIT MORE TOWARD THE NAM, WITH CLIMATOLOGY FAVORING
PROTRACTED POST COLD FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE COLD SEASON. HOWEVER,
IT IS A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE SKY FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE
IS BETTER AGREEMENT THAT BY THURSDAY THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LEAVE,
BUT MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EST WED FEB 11 2026
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, PROMPTING THE ADVECTION OF COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION. THEREFORE, WHILE THE PERIOD WILL START DRY, COLD AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH THE VERTICAL COLUMN WILL LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES; NONETHELESS, THESE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD, AIDING IN
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS. THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY, THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
EASTWARD. WHILE THIS INITIALLY LEADS TO RISING HEIGHTS, THE RIDGE
WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO THE EAST AS THE REGION MOVES INTO THE
DIFFLUENT DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH, FAVORING LARGE-
SCALE ASCENT. THIS SHIFT IS DRIVEN BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED
TO EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE COMMONWEALTH. BY
SATURDAY EVENING, A SURFACE WAVE WILL TRACK INTO THE OZARKS, WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE REGION. THIS SYNOPTIC
SETUP WILL BRING INCREASING POPS BEGINNING SATURDAY EVENING. POP
CHANCES WILL RAMP UP OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE
UPPER-DEEP SOUTH, KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. WHILE THIS POSITIONING WOULD TYPICALLY FAVOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW, THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN TOO WARM TO SUPPORT
FROZEN PRECIPITATION AS FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. THROUGH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM, TOTAL QPF VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.40 INCHES ALONG THE BLUEGRASS AND I-64
CORRIDOR TO NEARLY ONE INCH ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND BASIN AND
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY, BUT BY MONDAY MORNING,
THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY NUDGE BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, BRINGING RENEWED
THREATS FOR RAIN STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OVERALL, THE PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SANDWICHING A SLOW-MOVING SURFACE LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER
IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S BEGINNING FRIDAY AND PERSISTING INTO
MONDAY, BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BRINGS MID 50S AND MID
60S BY WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL START IN THE MID 20S BUT WILL
FOLLOW A SIMILAR UPWARD TRAJECTORY, EVENTUALLY CAPPING OUT IN THE
UPPER 40S BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 726 AM EST WED FEB 11 2026
THE START OF THE PERIOD SAW LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE JKL
FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTIONS INCLUDE SOME SMALL AREAS OF MVFR IN FAR
SOUTHEAST KY AND ALSO AROUND KSYM NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD. THE
REGIME WILL OVERALL SHIFT SOUTH TODAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING IN SOUTHEAST KY THIS MORNING, BUT MVFR CEILINGS ALSO
EXPECTED TO MAKE A RETURN OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND LAST AT LEAST UNTIL
TONIGHT. THAT AREA WOULD INCLUDE KSYM, KJKL, AND KSJS. A SLOW
EASTWARD RETREAT OF CEILINGS IS THEN FORECAST DURING THE NIGHT.
WITH ALL THAT SAID, IT IS A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST, WITH A
LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE WESTERN EDGE OF CEILINGS
WILL BE AND HOW QUICKLY THEY WILL RETREAT. AT THIS POINT, ALL
EXCEPT THE FAR EASTERN TIP OF THE AREA (EAST OF KPBX) IS FORECAST
TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...HAL
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