117
FXUS63 KJKL 111939
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
239 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MILDER
READINGS THEN FORECAST TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SOAKING RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1009 AM EST WED FEB 11 2026
UPDATED THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL DATA
FROM AROUND THE REGION. ALSO BLENDED MODELS FOR SKY CONDITION IN
AN EFFORT TO BETTER REPRESENT CURRENT AND FUTURE CONDITIONS. MORE
LOW CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH WHICH WILL AFFECT AT LEAST
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
RATHER LOW IN HOW THESE CLOUDS EVOLVE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 734 AM EST WED FEB 11 2026
RAIN HAS EXITED THE AREA AND SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN MAY PLACES.
THERE ARE MORE LOW CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH WHICH WILL
AFFECT AT LEAST THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW IN HOW THESE CLOUDS EVOLVE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EST WED FEB 11 2026
RAIN LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
FORECAST PREPARATION TIME, BEHIND A COLD FRONT DEPARTING TO THE
SOUTH OVER TN. RAIN WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WITH FAIR WEATHER WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON
THURSDAY. AFTER RECORD WARMTH ON TUESDAY, THE NEW AIR MASS WILL
BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONCERNS SKY
CONDITION. MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS OUR CURRENT CLOUDS TRY TO CLEAR
OUT, A SHALLOW, LOW CLOUD LAYER CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH
OH WILL REACH THE JKL FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON HOW LONG THEY
LINGER. THE GFS HAS ENOUGH WARMING, MIXING, AND DRYING TO LARGELY
GET RID OF THE CLOUDS BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, THE NAM
STUBBORNLY HOLDS ONTO THEM THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT FOR AT LEAST
THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. HAVE LEANED THE FORECAST A
LITTLE BIT MORE TOWARD THE NAM, WITH CLIMATOLOGY FAVORING
PROTRACTED POST COLD FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE COLD SEASON. HOWEVER,
IT IS A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE SKY FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE
IS BETTER AGREEMENT THAT BY THURSDAY THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LEAVE,
BUT MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
AFTER WORKING THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT THIS PAST WEEKEND AND SEEING THE
MODELS FOR THIS COMING WEEKEND NOT ONLY BEING OUT TO LUNCH, BUT AT
TWO SEPARATE RESTAURANTS...IT IS EXCITING REPORT THAT THEY HAVE BOTH
RECONCILED, CHANGED COURSES, AND PICKED A NEW RESTAURANT TO EAT AT
TOGETHER. THERE ARE STILL A FEW DISAGREEMENTS (KINKS TO WORK OUT),
BUT OVERALL THE PATTERN IS MUCH BETTER IN AGREEMENT, AND ALSO
COMPLETELY DIFFERENT FROM WHAT EITHER MODEL LOOKED LIKE JUST 4 DAYS
AGO.
THE PERIOD STARTS OFF FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST WELL INTO SATURDAY, KEEPING EASTERN KENTUCKY
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY,
BOTH DUE TO CONTINUED AIRMASS MODIFICATION, AND THE INTRODUCTION OF
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS
TO SHIFT EASTWARD.
MEANWHILE, BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN INTO A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW ABLE TO
FEED DEEP AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE LOW, MID, AND HIGH
LEVELS. DESPITE OUR LOCATION WELL NORTH OF THIS SYSTEM ON SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH THAT MUCH OF
THE ENTIRE STATE SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN, THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS, WITH THE GFS
BEING MUCH MORE ROBUST ON THE QPF AMOUNTS. THAT BEING SAID, THE
LATEST TRACK HAS RAMPED UP QPF ACROSS KY EVEN FOR THE ECMWF AS WELL.
STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL HAS INCREASED BY SEVERAL TENTHS TO ALMOST A
HALF OF AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS COMPARED TO THAT OF THE LAST
FORECAST PACKAGE OVERNIGHT.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE ENE TRACK, QUICKLY CROSSING THE DEEP
SOUTH ON SUNDAY, AND EXITING OUT OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER
ON THIS EXITING TRACK THAN THE GFS, HOWEVER, BOTH MODELS SHOW
PRECIPITATION EXITING THE CWA BY SUNDAY EVENING (ECWMF)/FIRST HALF
OF SUNDAY NIGHT (GFS). THIS TOO SHOULD BEGIN TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT AS WE GET CLOSER, GIVEN THAT IT'S STILL DAY 6 AT THIS
POINT.
ONCE IT DOES EXIT, BOTH THE ECWMF AND GFS AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE
AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL TAKE HOLD ONCE MORE, PERSISTING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY
WARMER ONCE AGAIN AS WELL, THOUGH OVERALL THERE WON'T BE TOO MUCH
SWING THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED, SINCE THE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
NEVER ACTUALLY PASS THROUGH THE STATE.
EXPECT GENERALLY 50S TO LOW 60S EACH AFTERNOON FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY, THEN MODIFYING WARMER INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SHOW A BIT MORE VARIATION,
STARTING OFF COLDEST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS -
GENERALLY IN THE 20S, THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S
FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WITH CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION. THEY TOO WILL THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE WARMER AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALL THIS TO SAY, TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED, SPECIFICALLY WHEN THE PRECIPITATION IS MOVING THROUGH,
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING (BOTH DURING THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT)-
SO RAINFALL IS THE ONLY PRECIPITATION TYPE EXPECTED. FURTHERMORE,
IT'S NOT QUITE WARM ENOUGH AND THERE ISN'T QUITE ENOUGH TO LIFT TO
INITIATE THE INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SO
YES, IT MAY BE A SOAKING RAIN - BUT JUST RAIN.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
SKY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON,
WITH LOWER CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN MOST TAF SITES SUCH
AS KSYM AND KSJS, ALTHOUGH THEY ARE MOSTLY SCATTERED AT THIS TIME.
THROUGH 20-21Z THE SCT020 CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY. HIGH CLOUDS BEING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS AFTER 06Z HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS TIME THAT IT WILL EFFECT ANY TAF SITES, SO FOG WAS NOT
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE THE TAF PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GINNICK
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