543
FXUS63 KJKL 112345 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
645 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MILDER
READINGS THEN FORECAST TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SOAKING RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 625 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. THIS IS STARTING TO SETTLE THE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO
10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WHILE KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR - MARRED ONLY BY SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME.
CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. MEANWHILE, DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO ADD IN THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE
ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THIS EVENING, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, WHICH COULD BE VARIABLE AT TIMES. VALLEYS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE SOME HEADING INTO THE EVENING, LEADING TO
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S, WHILE RIDGE TOPS REMAIN IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S. CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW IN THE AREAL EXTENT OF
ANY PATCHY FOG THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT. RECENT RAINFALL AND CLEAR
SKIES DO FAVOR FOG DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER A STRATUS DECK MAY DEVELOP
INSTEAD, GIVEN DRY LOW LEVELS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS. FOR NOW,
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.
THURSDAY, AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, INTO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED FROM THIS PASSING SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, BEFORE CLEARING BACK
OUT HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTH TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THURSDAY EVENING, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
AFTER WORKING THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT THIS PAST WEEKEND AND SEEING THE
MODELS FOR THIS COMING WEEKEND NOT ONLY BEING OUT TO LUNCH, BUT AT
TWO SEPARATE RESTAURANTS...IT IS EXCITING REPORT THAT THEY HAVE BOTH
RECONCILED, CHANGED COURSES, AND PICKED A NEW RESTAURANT TO EAT AT
TOGETHER. THERE ARE STILL A FEW DISAGREEMENTS (KINKS TO WORK OUT),
BUT OVERALL THE PATTERN IS MUCH BETTER IN AGREEMENT, AND ALSO
COMPLETELY DIFFERENT FROM WHAT EITHER MODEL LOOKED LIKE JUST 4 DAYS
AGO.
THE PERIOD STARTS OFF FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST WELL INTO SATURDAY, KEEPING EASTERN KENTUCKY
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY,
BOTH DUE TO CONTINUED AIRMASS MODIFICATION, AND THE INTRODUCTION OF
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS
TO SHIFT EASTWARD.
MEANWHILE, BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN INTO A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW ABLE TO
FEED DEEP AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE LOW, MID, AND HIGH
LEVELS. DESPITE OUR LOCATION WELL NORTH OF THIS SYSTEM ON SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH THAT MUCH OF
THE ENTIRE STATE SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN, THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS, WITH THE GFS
BEING MUCH MORE ROBUST ON THE QPF AMOUNTS. THAT BEING SAID, THE
LATEST TRACK HAS RAMPED UP QPF ACROSS KY EVEN FOR THE ECMWF AS WELL.
STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL HAS INCREASED BY SEVERAL TENTHS TO ALMOST A
HALF OF AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS COMPARED TO THAT OF THE LAST
FORECAST PACKAGE OVERNIGHT.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE ENE TRACK, QUICKLY CROSSING THE DEEP
SOUTH ON SUNDAY, AND EXITING OUT OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER
ON THIS EXITING TRACK THAN THE GFS, HOWEVER, BOTH MODELS SHOW
PRECIPITATION EXITING THE CWA BY SUNDAY EVENING (ECWMF)/FIRST HALF
OF SUNDAY NIGHT (GFS). THIS TOO SHOULD BEGIN TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT AS WE GET CLOSER, GIVEN THAT IT'S STILL DAY 6 AT THIS
POINT.
ONCE IT DOES EXIT, BOTH THE ECWMF AND GFS AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE
AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL TAKE HOLD ONCE MORE, PERSISTING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY
WARMER ONCE AGAIN AS WELL, THOUGH OVERALL THERE WON'T BE TOO MUCH
SWING THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED, SINCE THE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
NEVER ACTUALLY PASS THROUGH THE STATE.
EXPECT GENERALLY 50S TO LOW 60S EACH AFTERNOON FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY, THEN MODIFYING WARMER INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SHOW A BIT MORE VARIATION,
STARTING OFF COLDEST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS -
GENERALLY IN THE 20S, THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S
FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WITH CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION. THEY TOO WILL THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE WARMER AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALL THIS TO SAY, TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED, SPECIFICALLY WHEN THE PRECIPITATION IS MOVING THROUGH,
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING (BOTH DURING THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT)-
SO RAINFALL IS THE ONLY PRECIPITATION TYPE EXPECTED. FURTHERMORE,
IT'S NOT QUITE WARM ENOUGH AND THERE ISN'T QUITE ENOUGH TO LIFT TO
INITIATE THE INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SO
YES, IT MAY BE A SOAKING RAIN - BUT JUST RAIN.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
CONDITIONS ARE VFR ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. HIGH
CLOUDS DO CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST, BUT THESE WILL NOT
IMPACT AVIATION CONCERNS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPS AFTER 06Z HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME THAT IT WILL EFFECT ANY TAF SITES, SO FOG WAS NOT INCLUDED
WITH THIS ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE THE TAF PERIOD. LOOK FOR WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY, THURSDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GINNICK/GREIF
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