137
FXUS63 KJKL 120845
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
345 AM EST THU FEB 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MILDER
READINGS THEN RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SOAKING RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST THU FEB 12 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER OUR AREA, WITH
ONLY MINOR WAVES EMBEDDED. THE REGIME WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER WITH ONLY SOME VARIATIONS IN SKY COVER DUE TO THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVES. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION EASING, SUNSHINE
WILL BEGIN TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EST THU FEB 12 2026
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
BENEATH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. HOWEVER, THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
TOWARD THE COMMONWEALTH. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
DRY AND MILD, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.
THIS WARMTH WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE SURFACE WAVE APPROACHES BY
SATURDAY EVENING. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO THE OZARKS WHILE
ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS
SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING POPS SATURDAY EVENING, WITH
CHANCES RAMPING UP OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH. THIS TRACK KEEPS THE REGION WELL WITHIN THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DURING THE SYSTEM PASSAGE INDICATE HIGH
PW VALUES, DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE, AND A TALL, SKINNY CAPE PROFILE,
SUGGESTING EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES. CONSEQUENTLY, QPF VALUES
HAVE TRENDED UPWARD BY ABOUT HALF AN INCH COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. NEW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 INCHES ALONG
THE BLUEGRASS AND I-64 CORRIDOR TO NEARLY 1.25 INCHES ACROSS THE
CUMBERLAND BASIN AND PLATEAU. GIVEN THESE TOTALS AND RECENT
SNOWMELT, RISES ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE LIKELY.
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS
TO THE EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION, REMAINING THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY, A PASSING SHORTWAVE IN CENTRAL CANADA WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY,
BRINGING RENEWED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT, THE REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A
STRENGTHENING LLJ. LREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE A 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL, THE PERIOD REMAINS ACTIVE WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES
EXPECTED. THE FIRST SYSTEM MAY POSE HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS DUE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. AFTER A BRIEF COOL-DOWN ON SUNDAY, A WARMING TREND WILL
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 60S BY WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FOLLOW A
SIMILAR TRAJECTORY, RISING FROM THE MID 20S THIS WEEKEND TO THE
LOWER 50S BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
CONDITIONS ARE VFR ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE. HIGH
CLOUDS DO CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST, BUT THESE WILL NOT
IMPACT AVIATION CONCERNS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FREEZING FOG DEVELOPS AFTER 06Z HOWEVER CONFIDENCE TOO LOW
AT THIS TIME THAT IT WILL AFFECT ANY TAF SITES, SO IT WAS NOT
INCLUDED. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LOOK FOR WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE REST OF
THE NIGHT AND THE DAY, THURSDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GREIF
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