747
FXUS63 KJKL 122125
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
425 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MILDER
READINGS THEN RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS
WEEKEND.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING, FROM THE GREAT LAKES, ARRIVING OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE HEADING INTO THIS EVENING, UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE
VALLEYS, TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ALONG RIGE-TOPS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA,
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. SOME HIGHS CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WEEKEND SYSTEM. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE VALLEYS, TO UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S ALONG
RIDGE-TOPS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE PROGRESSIVE AND AMPLIFIED FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE MODEL
AGREEMENT IS GOOD ON THE OVERALL REGIME, SMALLER SCALE FEATURE
DIFFERENCES SHOW INCREASING SPREAD WITH TIME BY NEXT WEEK.
ON SATURDAY, A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CRUISE EAST
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO A CUTOFF LOW AS
IT REACHES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS FEATURE WILL THEN DAMPEN AS IT MIGRATES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH,
WITH STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE EXACT TRACK AS IT NEARS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL EVOLVE
SIMILARLY, DEEPENING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, BEFORE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PWATS WILL BE HIGH
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, GENERALLY 90TH
PERCENTILE OR HIGHER, BUT 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT DOES NOT LOOK
TOO IMPRESSIVE, AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE MORE MODEST AS WELL.
PROBABILITIES OF SEEING GREATER THAN AN INCH OF RAINFALL IN 24
HOURS HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING FROM RUN TO RUN IN THE MODELS, BUT
THE HIGHER PROBS GENERALLY REMAIN FOCUSED MORE ALONG THE I-75
CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST. PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 2 INCHES HAVE
CONSISTENTLY REMAINED LESS THAN 10 PERCENT EAST OF I-75 OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. AS SUCH, ANY HYDRO THREAT REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, DEEPER TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE OVER THE WEST,
WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES TO
THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH SOME BETTER CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE
ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG A TIGHTER BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT SPREADS
EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW ALL OF THIS EVOLVES, WITH NOTABLE MODEL
DIFFERENCES REGARDING TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE SMALLER SCALE
FEATURES. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS IN THE
WARM SECTOR, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. RAIN
CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT GENERALLY INCREASES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY,
BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS HANGING ON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60 SOUTH. RAIN WILL
THEN OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH SUNDAY MORNING GENERALLY THE RAINIEST PERIOD. RAINS
WILL TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ON SUNDAY,
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. DRY WEATHER TAKES HOLD
ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGHS WILL BUILD EACH DAY, WITH UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S EXPECTED
ON MONDAY, AND THEN WELL INTO THE 60S BY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS MAY BE
A SHADE COOLER ON THURSDAY, DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER, BUT STILL
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH
SOME MID LEVEL CEILINGS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...GINNICK
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