012
FXUS63 KJKL 130845
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
345 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MILDER
READINGS THEN RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS
WEEKEND.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
AS OF THE 0600Z SURFACE ANALYSIS, A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. ITS INFLUENCE IS
WIDESPREAD, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER OCCURRING ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA AND THE EASTERN CONUS. LOCALLY, THE REGION UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH, AND CLEAR SKIES PERSIST. TEMPERATURES
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S OVERNIGHT AS EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD, KEEPING THE AREA DRY. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY TODAY, FAVORING COOLER TEMPERATURES AS WEAK CAA
PERSISTS. HOWEVER, AS UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE THIS AFTERNOON,
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
NONETHELESS, HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
ACROSS THE NORTH, WARMING TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RELATIVELY WARMER COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AND A WAA
REGIME DEVELOPS. FORECAST LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S
IN THE SOUTHWEST BUT COOLER TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THESE AREAS,
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE-VALLEY
SPLIT, ALLOWING THE NORTHEAST VALLEYS TO FALL INTO THE MID 20S.
SATURDAY BRINGS CONTINUED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, BUT UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND FLATTEN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND APPROACH THE COMMONWEALTH. BY SATURDAY, THE FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, BRINGING INCREASED POP AFTER THE SHORT-TERM
FORECAST WINDOW. THE AREA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH SATURDAY, THOUGH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED IN ANTICIPATION OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM A FEW DEGREES
COMPARED TO FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 50S IN THE
BLUEGRASS TO LOWER 60S NEAR THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE BORDER.
THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, KEEPING THE
FORECAST AREA DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL MAINTAIN A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF A SURFACE WAVE
BRINGS POP SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE PROGRESSIVE AND AMPLIFIED FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE MODEL
AGREEMENT IS GOOD ON THE OVERALL REGIME, SMALLER SCALE FEATURE
DIFFERENCES SHOW INCREASING SPREAD WITH TIME BY NEXT WEEK.
ON SATURDAY, A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CRUISE EAST
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO A CUTOFF LOW AS
IT REACHES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS FEATURE WILL THEN DAMPEN AS IT MIGRATES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH,
WITH STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE EXACT TRACK AS IT NEARS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL EVOLVE
SIMILARLY, DEEPENING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, BEFORE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PWATS WILL BE HIGH
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, GENERALLY 90TH
PERCENTILE OR HIGHER, BUT 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT DOES NOT LOOK
TOO IMPRESSIVE, AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE MORE MODEST AS WELL.
PROBABILITIES OF SEEING GREATER THAN AN INCH OF RAINFALL IN 24
HOURS HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING FROM RUN TO RUN IN THE MODELS, BUT
THE HIGHER PROBS GENERALLY REMAIN FOCUSED MORE ALONG THE I-75
CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST. PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 2 INCHES HAVE
CONSISTENTLY REMAINED LESS THAN 10 PERCENT EAST OF I-75 OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. AS SUCH, ANY HYDRO THREAT REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, DEEPER TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE OVER THE WEST,
WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES TO
THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH SOME BETTER CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE
ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG A TIGHTER BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT SPREADS
EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW ALL OF THIS EVOLVES, WITH NOTABLE MODEL
DIFFERENCES REGARDING TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE SMALLER SCALE
FEATURES. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS IN THE
WARM SECTOR, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. RAIN
CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT GENERALLY INCREASES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY,
BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS HANGING ON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60 SOUTH. RAIN WILL
THEN OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH SUNDAY MORNING GENERALLY THE RAINIEST PERIOD. RAINS
WILL TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ON SUNDAY,
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. DRY WEATHER TAKES HOLD
ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGHS WILL BUILD EACH DAY, WITH UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S EXPECTED
ON MONDAY, AND THEN WELL INTO THE 60S BY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS MAY BE
A SHADE COOLER ON THURSDAY, DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER, BUT STILL
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026
WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD, DESPITE SOME TIMES OF FLEETING HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...GREIF
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