524
FXUS63 KJKL 131534
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1034 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MILDER
READINGS THEN RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS
WEEKEND.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
UPDATED THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE
AREA. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST, AS HIGH PRESSURE
PROVIDES LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 757 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
JUST A QUICK LITTLE REFRESH TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST SURFACE OBS
AND INTERPOLATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SAVED AND SENT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
AS OF THE 0600Z SURFACE ANALYSIS, A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. ITS INFLUENCE IS
WIDESPREAD, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER OCCURRING ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA AND THE EASTERN CONUS. LOCALLY, THE REGION UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH, AND CLEAR SKIES PERSIST. TEMPERATURES
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S OVERNIGHT AS EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD, KEEPING THE AREA DRY. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY TODAY, FAVORING COOLER TEMPERATURES AS WEAK CAA
PERSISTS. HOWEVER, AS UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE THIS AFTERNOON,
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
NONETHELESS, HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
ACROSS THE NORTH, WARMING TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RELATIVELY WARMER COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AND A WAA
REGIME DEVELOPS. FORECAST LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S
IN THE SOUTHWEST BUT COOLER TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THESE AREAS,
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE-VALLEY
SPLIT, ALLOWING THE NORTHEAST VALLEYS TO FALL INTO THE MID 20S.
SATURDAY BRINGS CONTINUED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, BUT UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND FLATTEN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND APPROACH THE COMMONWEALTH. BY SATURDAY, THE FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, BRINGING INCREASED POP AFTER THE SHORT-TERM
FORECAST WINDOW. THE AREA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH SATURDAY, THOUGH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED IN ANTICIPATION OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM A FEW DEGREES
COMPARED TO FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 50S IN THE
BLUEGRASS TO LOWER 60S NEAR THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE BORDER.
THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, KEEPING THE
FORECAST AREA DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL MAINTAIN A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF A SURFACE WAVE
BRINGS POP SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD OPENS SATURDAY EVENING WITH A SOGGY STORM
SYSTEM AT OUR DOORSTEP. THE 13/00Z MODEL SUITE ANALYSIS IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC DETAILS THROUGH THE FORECAST WINDOW,
BUT SOME DISCREPANCIES LINGER IN THE SMALLER-SCALE DETAILS. A 500
HPA TROUGH WILL INITIALLY BE TO OUR WEST, STRETCHING FROM IOWA TO
TEXAS, SUPPORTING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF THE SOUTH.
THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY WHILE
SPREADING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
INTO KENTUCKY--PWATS SURGE TO AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE RELATIVE
TO CLIMATOLOGY. A SOAKING RAIN IS LIKELY WITH PROBABILITIES FOR
AT LEAST 1 INCH OF RAINFALL RANGING FROM 10 TO 20% IN THE I-64
CORRIDOR TO 60 PERCENT NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND. PROBABILITIES FOR
MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN REMAIN UNDER 10% THOUGH, AND CONFINED
ALONG/WEST OF I-75. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THE EXPECTED MAGNITUDE,
GENERALLY 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES NORTH TO SOUTH, ARE NOT SUFFICIENT TO
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS.
ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT, RIDGING WILL BUILD
BACK ACROSS THE REGION BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE, LEADING TO A
WARMING TREND HEADING INTO MID-WEEK. WITH TIME, ADDITIONAL
TROUGHS/PACIFIC ENERGY WILL RIDE UP OVER THE RIDGING ALONG A
NOTABLE BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD, BUT MOST, IF NOT
ALL, OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
COMMONWEALTH, LEAVING EASTERN KENTUCKY SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
THE ECMWF EFI IS SIGNALING THE MOST ANOMALOUSLY MILD TEMPERATURES
OF THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
IN SENSIBLE TERMS, LOOK FOR A SOGGY AND SEASONABLY COOL START TO
THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. FAIR WEATHER FOLLOWS
FOR MONDAY INTO MID-WEEK, WHEN SMALL RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 60S FOR NEARLY
ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY BY TUESDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH
THURSDAY, WHILE LOWS RANGE IN THE 30S AND 40S, EXCEPT SOME LOW 50S
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT PRESENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...VORST
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