700
FXUS63 KJKL 132010
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
310 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MILDER
READINGS THEN RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS
WEEKEND.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE AREA, WHICH HAS
LEAD TO PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
TONIGHT, WILL REMAIN CLEAR, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE VALLEYS,
WITH RIDGE-TOPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THIS IS
DUE TO WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60. DURING THE DAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WORKS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHOWER
CHANCES INCREASE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WITH CLOUDY SKIES, TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD OPENS SATURDAY EVENING WITH A SOGGY STORM
SYSTEM AT OUR DOORSTEP. THE 13/00Z MODEL SUITE ANALYSIS IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC DETAILS THROUGH THE FORECAST WINDOW,
BUT SOME DISCREPANCIES LINGER IN THE SMALLER-SCALE DETAILS. A 500
HPA TROUGH WILL INITIALLY BE TO OUR WEST, STRETCHING FROM IOWA TO
TEXAS, SUPPORTING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF THE SOUTH.
THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY WHILE
SPREADING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
INTO KENTUCKY--PWATS SURGE TO AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE RELATIVE
TO CLIMATOLOGY. A SOAKING RAIN IS LIKELY WITH PROBABILITIES FOR
AT LEAST 1 INCH OF RAINFALL RANGING FROM 10 TO 20% IN THE I-64
CORRIDOR TO 60 PERCENT NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND. PROBABILITIES FOR
MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN REMAIN UNDER 10% THOUGH, AND CONFINED
ALONG/WEST OF I-75. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THE EXPECTED MAGNITUDE,
GENERALLY 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES NORTH TO SOUTH, ARE NOT SUFFICIENT TO
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS.
ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT, RIDGING WILL BUILD
BACK ACROSS THE REGION BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE, LEADING TO A
WARMING TREND HEADING INTO MID-WEEK. WITH TIME, ADDITIONAL
TROUGHS/PACIFIC ENERGY WILL RIDE UP OVER THE RIDGING ALONG A
NOTABLE BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD, BUT MOST, IF NOT
ALL, OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
COMMONWEALTH, LEAVING EASTERN KENTUCKY SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
THE ECMWF EFI IS SIGNALING THE MOST ANOMALOUSLY MILD TEMPERATURES
OF THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
IN SENSIBLE TERMS, LOOK FOR A SOGGY AND SEASONABLY COOL START TO
THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. FAIR WEATHER FOLLOWS
FOR MONDAY INTO MID-WEEK, WHEN SMALL RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 60S FOR NEARLY
ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY BY TUESDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH
THURSDAY, WHILE LOWS RANGE IN THE 30S AND 40S, EXCEPT SOME LOW 50S
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT PRESENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED. HIGH CLOUDS MAY CREEP INTO THE AREA TOWARDS
THE TAIL END OF THE TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF A WEEKEND SYSTEM.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...GINNICK/VORST
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