974
FXUS63 KJKL 140023
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
723 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MILDER
READINGS THEN RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS
WEEKEND.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 722 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
FRESHENED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT
AS SEVERAL SHELTERED VALLEY MESONET LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY MUCH
COLDER THAN FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 518 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATED TO ADD MINIMAL SKY COVER FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS TOWARDS NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS. ALSO FRESHENED UP HOURLY TEMPERATURE
GRIDS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE AREA, WHICH HAS
LEAD TO PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
TONIGHT, WILL REMAIN CLEAR, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE VALLEYS,
WITH RIDGE-TOPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THIS IS
DUE TO WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60. DURING THE DAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WORKS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHOWER
CHANCES INCREASE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WITH CLOUDY SKIES, TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A 500 MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH AND MS RIVERS SOUTH TO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY VICINITY. FURTHER WEST, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND
NORTH FROM MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS AS
THE PERIOD BEGINS WHILE FURTHER WEST, AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH ARE
EXPECTED TO BE INITIALLY IN PLACE WEST OF THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE LOWER
MS VALLEY AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO EASTERN KY
WILL ALREADY HAVE BEGUN WITH MEAN PW PER THE 12Z LREF ON THE
ORDER OF 0.80 TO 1.1 INCHES OR THE 90TH TO 95TH PERCENTILES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AROUND DAWN ON SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GULF STATES
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE
APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST FROM SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE,
THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF EASTERN KY. A PERIOD OF GOOD
FORCING IS ANTICIPATED TO COMBINE WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE FOR A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THAT ARRIVES AROUND OR BIT BEFORE DAWN, BUT
PICKS UP A BIT IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
THEN GRADUALLY BEGINS TO TAPER OFF DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW
LEVEL FLOW, SUCH AS AT 925 MB AND AT THE SURFACE, WILL HAVE A
DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST COMPONENT NEAR DAWN ON SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE THESE WINDS BECOME MORE
EASTERLY AND THIS AFFECT LESSENS. THIS WILL INITIALLY LIMIT QPF IN
THESE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES DOWNWIND OF PINE AND BLACK MOUNTAINS
NEAR THE VA BORDER. OVERALL, THOUGH WIDESPREAD TO SOAKING RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST HAVING TRENDED DOWN A BIT
RANGING FROM 0.4 IN THE NORTH TO ABOUT 1.4 INCHES NEAR THE TN
BORDER. 12Z LREF PROBABILTIES FOR 1 INCH OF EVENT TOTAL RAINFALL
RANGES FROM 10% OR LESS NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR TO 50 TO 60% NEAR
THE LAKE CUMBERLAND VICINITY. CHANCES FOR 2 INCHES OR MORE OF RAIN
REMAIN VERY LOW AT GENERALLY 5% OR LESS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
AT THIS TIME, RAINFALL ON SUNDAY IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS.
ONCE THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF EASTERN KY ON SUNDAY
EVENING AND THE SFC LOW NEARS THE SOUTHEAST COAST, SFC AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS AND ACROSS EASTERN KY FOR LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE NEW WEEK. DOWNSTREAM, THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING GENERALLY FLATTENS/BECOMES CENTERED FROM MEXICO
ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AT MIDWEEK. THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVES EJECTING
FROM THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
HOWEVER, THE OVERALL PATTER WILL RESULT IN WSW TO SW FLOW ALOFT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THEN
INTO EASTERN CONUS, INCLUDING THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
SHORTWAVES IN THIS FLOW MAY CROSS EASTERN KY AS EARLY AS
MIDWEEK. AT THE SURFACE, AN INITIAL SFC LOW SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE
PLAINS/CENTRAL CONUS TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN SHORTWAVE TIMING/EVOLUTION
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT AND
WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT TO THE
EAST TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AT MIDWEEK. THE OVERALL
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE IS FOR EASTERN KY TO GET INTO THE WARM
SECTOR AT MIDWEEK AS THIS FIRST SFC LOW MOVES EAST, TRACKING
NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS AND LIKELY NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE
COMMONWEALTH/EASTERN KY TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST AS THAT SYSTEM
PASSES.
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MEANS POINTS TOWARD THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EMERGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS ON THURSDAY, WITH THAT
SHORTWAVE ALSO GENERALLY TRACKING NORTHWEST OF THE COMMONWEALTH
AND TOWARD OR INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
YET ANOTHER SFC LOW SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL CONUS/PLAINS
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE PROBABLE TRACK OF THAT
SFC LOW ALSO NORTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH/EASTERN KY. SHOWER CHANCES
INCREASE WITH THE POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF THIS SFC LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AT THIS TIME, RAINFALL FROM THE MID
TO LATE WEEK SYSTEMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, WITH BETTER FORCING
PASSING NORTH AND PW ACROSS EASTERN KY EXPECTED TO BE NO HIGHER
THAN AROUND 0.75 INCHES OR THE 80TH TO 85TH PERCENTILE PER THE 00Z
LREF AND LIKELY SHORT RESIDENCE TIME OF ANY SHOWERS.
AFTER A BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY, THOUGH STILL NEAR
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, TEMPERATURES WARM TO
ABOVE NORMAL FROM MONDAY ONWARD. HIGHS OF AROUND 10 OR MORE
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY, WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS FOR TUESDAY TO THURSDAY.
DEPARTING SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT ON MONDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE DEEPER EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN VALLEYS. COOP MOS GUIDANCE HAD SOME MID 30S FOR
VALLEYS AND OPTED TO DEVIATE FROM NBM DETERMINISTIC MIN T FOR
EASTERN VALLEY LOWS MONDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 612 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT PRESENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z SATURDAY, WITH LOWERING CIGS FROM THE
WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...CMC
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