455
FXUS63 KJKL 140835
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
335 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MILDER
READINGS THEN RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS
WEEKEND.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1126 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
CONTINUED TO FRESHEN HOURLY TEMPERATURES GIVEN SIGNIFICANT RIDGE-
VALLEY SPLITS FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. A FEW LOCATIONS WERE
ALREADY AT FORECAST MINTS FOR THE NIGHT, SO LOWERED A FEW OF THE
COLDEST LOCATIONS ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 722 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
FRESHENED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT
AS SEVERAL SHELTERED VALLEY MESONET LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY MUCH
COLDER THAN FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 518 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATED TO ADD MINIMAL SKY COVER FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS TOWARDS NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS. ALSO FRESHENED UP HOURLY TEMPERATURE
GRIDS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE AREA, WHICH HAS
LEAD TO PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
TONIGHT, WILL REMAIN CLEAR, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE VALLEYS,
WITH RIDGE-TOPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THIS IS
DUE TO WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60. DURING THE DAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WORKS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHOWER
CHANCES INCREASE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WITH CLOUDY SKIES, TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY EVENING WITH A 500 HPA TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN ONTARIO TO FLORIDA WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS SITUATED UPSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, AN
~1005MB LOW IS SITUATED NEAR/OVER GEORGIA, WITH THE BACK EDGE OF
THE RAIN SHIELD EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY. MEANWHILE, A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM TEXAS NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. FARTHER UPSTREAM, A DEEP UPPER-
LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED OFF THE WEST COAST.
LINGERING RAIN WILL END SUNDAY NIGHT AS A DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AS THE RIDGING TO OUR WEST BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY LATE MONDAY AND SHIFT EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY
MORNING. AS A RESULT, EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL END UP UNDER A
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. THIS WILL BUOY
850 HPA TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 8 TO 10C RANGE FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, THE PACIFIC LOW WILL COME
ASHORE, AND PIECES OF ENERGY WILL THEN EJECT ENE OUT OF THE TROUGH
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THE FIRST PIECE OF ENERGY WILL SUPPORT
LOW PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. A
SECOND SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL EJECT NORTHEAST AND INTO
THE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS ENERGY WILL SUPPORT
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, DROPPING A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING OUR NEXT NOTABLE RAIN CHANCE,
BUT OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR, WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH GFS BUFKIT MIXED-
LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUPPORTING GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS EACH
AFTERNOON. LREF PROBABILITIES FOR 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS OF AT
LEAST 0.25 INCH RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT ENDING 00Z SATURDAY.
A SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR ANY LEFTOVER RAIN TO MOVE OUT
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S ARE
FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS, WHILE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON MONDAY AND INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S ON TUESDAY. THE MILDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S. IT WILL LIKELY BE BREEZY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING 20-25 MPH. RAIN SHOWER CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AND PEAK
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY EXIST TO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z FROM THE WEST, FOLLOWED
BY GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. PROB30 GROUPS WERE ADDED AT MOST TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE LOW CHANCE OF -RA AND LOWER CIGS/VIZ ARRIVING FROM THE WEST
BEFORE 06Z SUNDAY, BUT ANY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR LOWER FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY AFTER THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING,
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 KTS OR LESS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
GRADUALLY BACKING TO A SOUTHEASTERLY OR EASTERLY DIRECTION
SATURDAY NIGHT.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...CMC
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