944
FXUS63 KJKL 140954
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
454 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STEADY RAIN ARRIVES TONIGHT AND PEAKS SUNDAY. RAINFALL BETWEEN
0.50 AND 1.25 INCHES WILL LIKELY CAUSE LOCAL RIVERS/STREAMS TO
RISE BUT SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH THE
WARMEST READINGS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
REVIEWING THE 0600Z SURFACE ANALYSIS, A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE,
STRADDLING THE WEST VIRGINIA/VIRGINIA BORDER. ITS INFLUENCE IS
WIDESPREAD, PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. LOCALLY, EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS UNDER THE
CONTROL OF THIS HIGH, MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES. TO THE SOUTHWEST, AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IS SLOWLY
APPROACHING THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, LOW-
LEVEL WWA HAS BEGUN TO INFLUENCE THE REGION, THOUGH TEMPERATURES
HAVE STILL DROPPED INTO THE MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS AND 30S ON THE
RIDGETOPS DUE TO NOCTURNAL COOLING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY, BUT
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND FLATTEN AS THE
SURFACE LOW APPROACHES. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS ARRIVAL, THE AREA WILL
STAY DRY, AND CONTINUED WAA WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 50S
IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION AND THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE KENTUCKY-
TENNESSEE BORDER. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD
EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE COMMONWEALTH. AS THIS VERTICALLY
STACKED SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH, POP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SUPPORTING TROUGH PIVOTS EASTWARD OVER
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. WHILE A LACK OF INSTABILITY MEANS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE SYSTEMS PASSAGE. TOTAL QPF VALUES HAVE
FLUCTUATED WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL SUITE. HOWEVER, A CONSISTENT
TREND HAS EMERGED: QPF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 0.50 INCHES ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR TO 1.25 INCHES ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. WHEN
COMBINED WITH RECENT SNOWMELT, THIS RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO RISES ON
LOCAL RIVERS. HOWEVER, HYDROLOGIC THREATS REMAIN MINIMAL, AND
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD WILL BE DEFINED BY THE DEPARTURE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH AND THE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE TIED TO THE SOUTHERN TRACK
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND 60S, THOUGH THEY WILL TREND ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER ON
SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY EVENING WITH A 500 HPA TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN ONTARIO TO FLORIDA WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS SITUATED UPSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, AN
~1005MB LOW IS SITUATED NEAR/OVER GEORGIA, WITH THE BACK EDGE OF
THE RAIN SHIELD EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY. MEANWHILE, A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM TEXAS NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. FARTHER UPSTREAM, A DEEP UPPER-
LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED OFF THE WEST COAST.
LINGERING RAIN WILL END SUNDAY NIGHT AS A DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AS THE RIDGING TO OUR WEST BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY LATE MONDAY AND SHIFT EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY
MORNING. AS A RESULT, EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL END UP UNDER A
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. THIS WILL BUOY
850 HPA TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 8 TO 10C RANGE FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, THE PACIFIC LOW WILL COME
ASHORE, AND PIECES OF ENERGY WILL THEN EJECT ENE OUT OF THE TROUGH
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THE FIRST PIECE OF ENERGY WILL SUPPORT
LOW PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. A
SECOND SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL EJECT NORTHEAST AND INTO
THE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS ENERGY WILL SUPPORT
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, DROPPING A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING OUR NEXT NOTABLE RAIN CHANCE,
BUT OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR, WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH GFS BUFKIT MIXED-
LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUPPORTING GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS EACH
AFTERNOON. LREF PROBABILITIES FOR 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS OF AT
LEAST 0.25 INCH RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT ENDING 00Z SATURDAY.
A SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR ANY LEFTOVER RAIN TO MOVE OUT
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S ARE
FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS, WHILE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON MONDAY AND INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S ON TUESDAY. THE MILDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S. IT WILL LIKELY BE BREEZY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING 20-30 MPH. RAIN SHOWER CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AND PEAK
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY EXIST TO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z FROM THE WEST, FOLLOWED
BY GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. PROB30 GROUPS WERE ADDED AT MOST TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE LOW CHANCE OF -RA AND LOWER CIGS/VIZ ARRIVING FROM THE WEST
BEFORE 06Z SUNDAY, BUT ANY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR LOWER FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY AFTER THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING,
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 KTS OR LESS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
GRADUALLY BACKING TO A SOUTHEASTERLY OR EASTERLY DIRECTION
SATURDAY NIGHT.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...CMC
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