480
FXUS63 KJKL 141939
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
239 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STEADY RAIN ARRIVES TONIGHT AND PEAKS SUNDAY. RAINFALL BETWEEN
0.50 AND 1.25 INCHES WILL LIKELY CAUSE LOCAL RIVERS/STREAMS TO
RISE BUT SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH THE
WARMEST READINGS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS.
THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE SAFS AND ZONES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1105 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
KENTUCKY WHILE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
IS KEEPING THE AREA DRY BUT UNDER A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER -
NEVERTHELESS OUR SOLID WARMUP IS UNDER WAY FROM THE CHILLY
READINGS SEEN AT DAWN. CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE
LOW 30S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS, AS THEY START TO MIX OUT, AND
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. MEANWHILE, AMID LIGHT WINDS
TRENDING SOUTHWESTERLY, DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
20S EAST, BUT CLOSER TO FREEZING IN THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST MAINLY TO ADD IN THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE
T/TD/SKY GRIDS. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
REVIEWING THE 0600Z SURFACE ANALYSIS, A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE,
STRADDLING THE WEST VIRGINIA/VIRGINIA BORDER. ITS INFLUENCE IS
WIDESPREAD, PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. LOCALLY, EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS UNDER THE
CONTROL OF THIS HIGH, MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES. TO THE SOUTHWEST, AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IS SLOWLY
APPROACHING THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, LOW-
LEVEL WWA HAS BEGUN TO INFLUENCE THE REGION, THOUGH TEMPERATURES
HAVE STILL DROPPED INTO THE MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS AND 30S ON THE
RIDGETOPS DUE TO NOCTURNAL COOLING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY, BUT
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND FLATTEN AS THE
SURFACE LOW APPROACHES. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS ARRIVAL, THE AREA WILL
STAY DRY, AND CONTINUED WAA WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 50S
IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION AND THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE KENTUCKY-
TENNESSEE BORDER. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD
EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE COMMONWEALTH. AS THIS VERTICALLY
STACKED SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH, POP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SUPPORTING TROUGH PIVOTS EASTWARD OVER
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. WHILE A LACK OF INSTABILITY MEANS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE SYSTEMS PASSAGE. TOTAL QPF VALUES HAVE
FLUCTUATED WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL SUITE. HOWEVER, A CONSISTENT
TREND HAS EMERGED: QPF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 0.50 INCHES ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR TO 1.25 INCHES ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. WHEN
COMBINED WITH RECENT SNOWMELT, THIS RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO RISES ON
LOCAL RIVERS. HOWEVER, HYDROLOGIC THREATS REMAIN MINIMAL, AND
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD WILL BE DEFINED BY THE DEPARTURE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH AND THE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE TIED TO THE SOUTHERN TRACK
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND 60S, THOUGH THEY WILL TREND ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER ON
SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
MONDAY, A RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY, AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL
GENERALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS,
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. HEADING INTO MONDAY
EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, POSITIONING EASTERN
KENTUCKY IN SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW, FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES, AND AFTER A FRESH RAINFALL, TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE IN THE VALLEYS, LEADING TO LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS, AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
ALONG RIDGE TOPS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE WARMER AIR ADVECT INTO THE AREA,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EACH
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO MODIFY, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S TUESDAY NIGHT, AND THE LOW 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY, A LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL FEATURE A
WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY, AS WELL AS
TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OZARKS. GUSTY WINDS ARE LOOKING
LIKELY DURING THE DAY, AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MIXED-LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUPPORTING
GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS, HOWEVER THE GEFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS STRONGEST
GUSTS NORTH OF THE AREA, WITH LOW PROBABILTIES OF REACHING THE ABOVE
WIND GUSTS. CHANCES OF SEEING STRONG WIND GUSTS INCREASE FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST. SHOWER CHANCES REMAIN SCATTERED THROUGH MOST OF
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
THROUGH THE DAY.
WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, A SOUTHERN STREAM
EJECTS OF THE OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
LREF PROBABILITIES FOR 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS OF AT LEAST 0.25 INCH
CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT ENDING 7 PM SATURDAY. A
SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH
EVENING BEFORE AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW BRINGS INCREASING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS AFTER 03Z. AS THIS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER, SHOWER
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AT WESTERN TERMINALS - KSYM, KLOZ AND KSME -
INITIALLY. BETTER CHANCES - A NEAR CERTAINTY - FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES
CLOSER TO 09Z FOR ALL SITES. ALONG WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES,
TERMINAL CIGS WILL DROP INTO CATEGORY MVFR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
FALLING TO IFR WITHIN A FEW HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST - REMAINING
THERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE WHOLE OF THE TAF WINDOW.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...VORST/GREIF
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