550
FXUS63 KJKL 122050
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
450 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY, AND THIS COULD
COMBINE WITH DRYING CONDITIONS TO RESULT IN A THREAT OF
WILDFIRES.
- TEMPERATURES MODERATE THIS WEEKEND UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES.
- A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RETURN GUSTY
WINDS, PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AND CHILLY CONDITIONS TO THE
FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT A DRIER AND COOLER
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FORECAST AREA IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW DEEPENS UPON APPROACH TO THE GREAT LAKES.
THE RESULTANT ISOBARIC PACKING SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE WINDS WILL
INTENSIFY HEADED INTO TOMORROW MORNING, AND WHILE THESE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION OVERNIGHT, THEY
WILL NOT YIELD MEANINGFUL MOISTURE RETURN. ANTECEDENT DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS TO LOW 20S THIS EVENING AND EFFICIENT DIURNAL MIXING WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS BETWEEN 20 AND
35 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED MIXING IS EXPECTED
TO TRANSFER SOME OF THE MOMENTUM FROM THE 40-60 KNOTS OF 850MB FLOW
ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, THIS MEANS
THAT NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40MPH ARE LIKELY. WINDS COULD
GUST AS AS STRONG AS 50MPH IN THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE CORES OF BOTH THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND THE 850MB JET STREAK. FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST, THE
STRONGEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE ATOP THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT VALLEY
LOCALES COULD STILL GUST UP IN THE 30-40MPH RANGE. WINDS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE WILL BLOW AROUND LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS, AND THEY MAY CAUSE
DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES. COMBINED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED DRYNESS, THESE WINDS MAY POSE A LOCALLY ELEVATED RISK FOR
WILDFIRES. INTERESTS ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO FOLLOW ALL LOCAL AND
STATE GUIDANCE REGARDING BURNING AND TO SECURE OUTDOOR BELONGINGS
AHEAD OF TIME. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRETY OF
THE JKL CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS RISK TOMORROW.
REGARDING THE REST OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST, EXPECT PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER STREAMING OFF THE NORTHERN SYSTEM MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT, BUT IT WILL NOT BE MET WITH ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. IT WILL ALSO NOT PROHIBIT RIDGE-VALLEY DECOUPLING, WITH THE
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS EXPECTED TO EFFICIENTLY COOL TO FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WHILE THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TOMORROW
WILL FAIL TO ADVECT MEANINGFUL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, THEY WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S
ON THE THERMOMETER, A NOTICEABLE MODERATION FROM TODAY'S BELOW-
NORMAL READINGS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 534 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
EARLIER FRIDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WORK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND AREA. FRIDAY EVENING, A TRAILING DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. WINDS WILL VEER FROM
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO NORTHEASTERLY BY SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE MID 30S IN VALLEYS AND UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S ALONG RIDGE TOPS.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS WERE ADJUSTED DOWN BY BLENDING THE NBM USING THE 10TH
PERCENTILE. THIS YIELDS DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, BECOMING DRIER, IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO SOME DRY AIR MIXING DOWNWARD AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH, TO UPPER 60S FURTHER SOUTH.
ELSEWHERE, ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED
TO DIG SOUTH AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY,
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, BY SUNDAY MORNING. THROUGH SUNDAY, THIS
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE OZARKS, WITH MANY MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF THIS TROUGH HAVING A SLIGHT NEGATIVE
TILT. A LLJ WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA, WITH 12Z LREF GRAND ENSEMBLE
SHOWING A 80-85% CHANCE OF SEEING WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 35 MPH.
BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF 30-33 KTS (34-38
MPH). AS SUCH, WIND GUSTS WERE BLENDED UP WITH A 60/40 BLEND TOWARD
THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 25-35
MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STERN
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION, LEADING TO
TEMPERATURE CLIMBING INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA. HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SHARPLY
BEHIND THE FRONT, LIKELY GOING FROM LOWER 60S AROUND MIDNIGHT, TO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST BY MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY, RAIN-SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BEING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH, CAA MAY LEAD TO TEMPERATURES EITHER
LEVELING OUT OR FALLING SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S FROM WEST TO EAST WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST
AFTER SUNRISE, BEFORE FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S MONDAY
NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS MAY LEAD TO MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.
TUESDAY, IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH, COLD-DRY AIR CONTINUES
TO WORK INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES "WARM" INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
THROUGH THE DAY. DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL LEAD TO RH'S
IN THE 20S. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM ALBERTA, LOWS
WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 20. AS MENTIONED, A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE-TROUGH FLOW AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY ON WEDNESDAY. COLD AIR REMAINS
FOR ONE LAST DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 30S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY-FORECAST CLEARING TREND COMING TO FRUITION IN TODAY'S
SATELLITE IMAGERY. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ADVECTING DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION, AND DIURNAL MIXING COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE WIND
GUSTS AT TIMES. A FEW DIURNAL CU CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT THE
GREATER COVERAGE OF THIS LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AS OF
THE TIME OF WRITING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND THEN BEGIN INTENSIFYING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSES TO THE NORTH OF KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THIS, AND ANY ASSOCIATED CEILINGS WOULD
REMAIN ABOVE VFR THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER, A LOW LEVEL JET ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THAT SYSTEM WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD OF LLWS TO TAF SITES
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE DIURNAL MIXING BRINGS THE GUSTY WINDS ALOFT
DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY MID-MORNING. THAT LLWS AND THOSE WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CHALLENGE TOMORROW, AS VISIBILITY WILL
BE WELL ABOVE 6SM FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ104-106>120.
SHORT TERM...MARCUS
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...MARCUS
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