239
FXUS63 KJKL 130355 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1155 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY, AND THIS COULD
COMBINE WITH DRYING CONDITIONS TO RESULT IN A THREAT OF
WILDFIRES.
- TEMPERATURES MODERATE THIS WEEKEND UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES.
- A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RETURN GUSTY
WINDS, PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AND CHILLY CONDITIONS TO THE
FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS
AS HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND THICKEN. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE SAFS AND ZONES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS IS WORKING TO SETTLE THE WINDS AND
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR, THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE INBOUND FROM
THE NORTHWEST. CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S - WITH SOME UPPER 30S NOTED IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE, AMID LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY
QUITE DRY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST MAINLY TO ADD IN THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE
T/TD/SKY GRIDS. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE SAFS AND ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT A DRIER AND COOLER
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FORECAST AREA IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW DEEPENS UPON APPROACH TO THE GREAT LAKES.
THE RESULTANT ISOBARIC PACKING SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE WINDS WILL
INTENSIFY HEADED INTO TOMORROW MORNING, AND WHILE THESE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION OVERNIGHT, THEY
WILL NOT YIELD MEANINGFUL MOISTURE RETURN. ANTECEDENT DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS TO LOW 20S THIS EVENING AND EFFICIENT DIURNAL MIXING WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS BETWEEN 20 AND
35 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED MIXING IS EXPECTED
TO TRANSFER SOME OF THE MOMENTUM FROM THE 40-60 KNOTS OF 850MB FLOW
ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, THIS MEANS
THAT NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40MPH ARE LIKELY. WINDS COULD
GUST AS AS STRONG AS 50MPH IN THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE CORES OF BOTH THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND THE 850MB JET STREAK. FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST, THE
STRONGEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE ATOP THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT VALLEY
LOCALES COULD STILL GUST UP IN THE 30-40MPH RANGE. WINDS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE WILL BLOW AROUND LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS, AND THEY MAY CAUSE
DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES. COMBINED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED DRYNESS, THESE WINDS MAY POSE A LOCALLY ELEVATED RISK FOR
WILDFIRES. INTERESTS ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO FOLLOW ALL LOCAL AND
STATE GUIDANCE REGARDING BURNING AND TO SECURE OUTDOOR BELONGINGS
AHEAD OF TIME. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRETY OF
THE JKL CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS RISK TOMORROW.
REGARDING THE REST OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST, EXPECT PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER STREAMING OFF THE NORTHERN SYSTEM MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT, BUT IT WILL NOT BE MET WITH ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. IT WILL ALSO NOT PROHIBIT RIDGE-VALLEY DECOUPLING, WITH THE
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS EXPECTED TO EFFICIENTLY COOL TO FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WHILE THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TOMORROW
WILL FAIL TO ADVECT MEANINGFUL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, THEY WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S
ON THE THERMOMETER, A NOTICEABLE MODERATION FROM TODAY'S BELOW-
NORMAL READINGS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 535 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
THE PERIOD BEINGS WITH A BROAD TROUGH FROM THE HUDSON BAY AREA
INTO THE CONUS WITH A BIT OF A ZONAL FLAVOR INITIALLY. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD INITIALLY EXTEND FROM QUEBEC/ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
SHOULD BE OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH THE TRAILING BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEASTERN VA TO THE TN VALLEY TO PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO WY AND MT TO NORTHWEST CONUS. A SFC RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD INITIALLY EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE MID OH VALLEY AREA. AFTER A BRIEFLY ZONAL FLAVOR,
THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AND HAS A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS/PLAINS/CENTRAL CONUS TO END THE WEEKEND ON SUNDAY. THIS
TROUGH SHOULD REACH THE MS VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY. AT THAT POINT, THE A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING IS THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE WITH THAT UPPER
LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
TREKS INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BEFORE WEAKENING TO AN OPEN WAVE ON
TUESDAY. THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD CROSS EASTERN KY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHOULD REACH THE OH VALLEY LATE SUNDAY EVENING, CROSSING THE
COMMONWEALTH SUNDAY NIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
FOLLOWING THAT LATER ON MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD ORGANIZE OVER THE PLAINS AND THEN CROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT. AN INITIAL COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
SUNDAY NIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT LATER
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THE LATE WEEKEND COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING TO MONDAY
EVENING OR NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THIS RATHER VIGOROUS SYSTEM WILL
FAVOR CONVECTION INCLUDING POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WEST OF EASTERN KY THOUGH SOME 00Z GEFS AND ENS BASED AI GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT ABOUT A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS COULD EXTEND
INTO THE CWA, MAINLY THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE 70S
TO NEAR 80S WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THIS MAY
LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN AND INSTABILITY WITH EASTERN EXTENT, THOUGH
IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF PINE MTN NEAR WHITESBURG, ETC. 80 MIGHT BE
REACHABLE ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT DURING MONDAY, WHICH IS A SLOWER TREND COMPARED TO
GUIDANCE 24 TO 48 HOURS AGO. 850 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO
NEAR 7C NEAR THE VA NEAR SUNRISE ON MONDAY MORNING WITH VALUES
NEAR 0C IN THE WEST PER THE 12Z LREF MEANS. BOTH THE RECENT LREF
MEANS AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SUPPORT COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, WITH THE
COLDEST AIR ACROSS THE AREA AROUND DAWN ON TUESDAY MORNING. 850
MB TEMPERATURES FALL TOWARD IF NOT BELOW ABOUT -8C NEAR THE VA
LINE AND ABOUT -12C IN THE WEST THROUGH SUNSET ON MONDAY EVENING.
THESE COOL FURTHER TO AROUND -15C BY DAWN TUESDAY ALSO PER THE
12Z LREF. IF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS, UPSLOPE FLOW
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SUPPORT CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AND SNOW MONDAY TO MONDAY EVENING TRENDING TO PRIMARILY
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES LATER MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH MOST PLACES IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S
BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES LIKELY REACH COLDER LEVELS THAN RECENT
NIGHTS, INT HE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD AIR MASS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES ONLY MODERATING TO
AROUND THE -10C THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING PER THE 12Z LREF MEAN.
THIS OCCURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY, SHIFTING EAST
OF THE AREA AT MIDWEEK THAT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST A
MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AS IT DEPARTS. TEMPERATURES MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY TO NEARER TO,
BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING, THERE IS
A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAIN AT
MIDWEEK. FURTHER MODERATION IN TEMPS OCCURS THURSDAY.
THE MAIN DEVIATIONS FROM THE NBM DETERMINISTIC WERE TO UNDERCUT
DEWPOINTS TOWARD THE LOWER PERCENTILES FOR SATURDAY, INSERT A
PATTERN AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT FOR THE
EAST SAT NIGHT WITH DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE, AND THEN INCREASE
WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM AS
HAS BEEN THE TREND WITH SYSTEMS THIS WINTER THAT HAVE MOST
FREQUENTLY BEEN BREEZIER THAN THE NBM DETERMINISTIC. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS DOWN TO DEWPOINTS WERE MADE ON SUNDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AND MAX T WAS RAISED IN SOME AREAS JUST
DOWNWIND OF THE VA BORDER.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE START OF THE 00Z
TAF CYCLE WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND THEN BEGIN INTENSIFYING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE
NORTH OF KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TO THIS, THOUGH ANY ASSOCIATED CEILINGS WOULD REMAIN
ABOVE VFR THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER, A LOW LEVEL JET ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THAT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY INTRODUCE A PERIOD OF LLWS OF SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT UP TO 50 KTS TO THE TAF SITES FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
DAWN BEFORE DIURNAL MIXING BRINGS THE GUSTY WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO
THE SURFACE BY MID-MORNING. THE LLWS AND THOSE WIND DAYTIME GUSTS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CHALLENGE FRIDAY, AS VISIBILITY WILL
BE WELL ABOVE 6SM FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG
WITH CIGS ABOVE 10K FEET AGL.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ104-106>120.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...MARCUS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MARCUS/GREIF
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