436
FXUS63 KJKL 131059
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
659 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY, AND THIS COULD
COMBINE WITH DRYING CONDITIONS TO RESULT IN A THREAT OF
WILDFIRES.
- TEMPERATURES MODERATE THIS WEEKEND UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES.
- A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RETURN GUSTY
WINDS, PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AND CHILLY CONDITIONS TO THE
FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS
AS HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND THICKEN. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE SAFS AND ZONES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS IS WORKING TO SETTLE THE WINDS AND
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR, THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE INBOUND FROM
THE NORTHWEST. CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S - WITH SOME UPPER 30S NOTED IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE, AMID LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY
QUITE DRY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST MAINLY TO ADD IN THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE
T/TD/SKY GRIDS. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE SAFS AND ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT A DRIER AND COOLER
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FORECAST AREA IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW DEEPENS UPON APPROACH TO THE GREAT LAKES.
THE RESULTANT ISOBARIC PACKING SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE WINDS WILL
INTENSIFY HEADED INTO TOMORROW MORNING, AND WHILE THESE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION OVERNIGHT, THEY
WILL NOT YIELD MEANINGFUL MOISTURE RETURN. ANTECEDENT DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS TO LOW 20S THIS EVENING AND EFFICIENT DIURNAL MIXING WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS BETWEEN 20 AND
35 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED MIXING IS EXPECTED
TO TRANSFER SOME OF THE MOMENTUM FROM THE 40-60 KNOTS OF 850MB FLOW
ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, THIS MEANS
THAT NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40MPH ARE LIKELY. WINDS COULD
GUST AS AS STRONG AS 50MPH IN THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE CORES OF BOTH THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND THE 850MB JET STREAK. FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST, THE
STRONGEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE ATOP THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT VALLEY
LOCALES COULD STILL GUST UP IN THE 30-40MPH RANGE. WINDS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE WILL BLOW AROUND LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS, AND THEY MAY CAUSE
DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES. COMBINED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED DRYNESS, THESE WINDS MAY POSE A LOCALLY ELEVATED RISK FOR
WILDFIRES. INTERESTS ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO FOLLOW ALL LOCAL AND
STATE GUIDANCE REGARDING BURNING AND TO SECURE OUTDOOR BELONGINGS
AHEAD OF TIME. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRETY OF
THE JKL CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS RISK TOMORROW.
REGARDING THE REST OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST, EXPECT PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER STREAMING OFF THE NORTHERN SYSTEM MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT, BUT IT WILL NOT BE MET WITH ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. IT WILL ALSO NOT PROHIBIT RIDGE-VALLEY DECOUPLING, WITH THE
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS EXPECTED TO EFFICIENTLY COOL TO FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WHILE THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TOMORROW
WILL FAIL TO ADVECT MEANINGFUL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, THEY WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S
ON THE THERMOMETER, A NOTICEABLE MODERATION FROM TODAY'S BELOW-
NORMAL READINGS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS WARM
AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA ALOFT, FROM THE SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE,
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY ALIGN WITH FLOW ALOFT AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S.
SUNDAY, THIS TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE OZARKS, WITH MANY MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THIS TROUGH HAVING A SLIGHT NEGATIVE
TILT. A LLJ WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA, WITH 12Z LREF GRAND ENSEMBLE
SHOWING A 70-95% CHANCE OF SEEING WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 35 MPH.
BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF 30-33 KTS (34-38
MPH)AT SOMERSET. AS SUCH, WIND GUSTS WERE BLENDED UP USING THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF THE NBM. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 25-35 MPH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STERN SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION, LEADING TO TEMPERATURE
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S.
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM REMAINS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM
OF A QLCS, AND COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE IN NATURE. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED ALL OF WAYNE, MOST OF PULASKI, AND
ROCKCASTLE, AND SMALL PORTIONS OF MCCREARY, MONTGOMERY, AND FLEMING
IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SHARPLY BEHIND THE FRONT, SOME 10-
15 DEGREES IN THE MATTER OF A FEW HOURS. A SHIFT IN TIMING IN EITHER
DIRECTION COULD LEAD TO A "BUSTED FORECAST" FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY. THIS IS BECAUSE THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MONDAY
WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN A 2-4 HOUR WINDOW IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
MONDAY. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT,
WHICH WOULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE THE UPPER 30S ALONG
THE I-75 CORRIDOR, TO LOW 50S IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES LIKE PIKE,
MARTIN, FLOYD AND OTHERS. MEANWHILE, A SLOWER SOLUTION (EVEN BY JUST
AN HOUR OR TWO) AS MODELED BY THE NAM AND GFS, WOULD LEAD TO LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR, TO
THE LOW TO MID 60S FURTHER EAST. AT CURRENT, THE FORECAST WILL SAY
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S FARTHER EAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHTS LOW. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR
AND MID 50S TO MID 60S FARTHER EAST. THE FACT OF THE MATTER IS BOTH
WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND IN A 2-4 HOUR WINDOW, BETWEEN 6-10 AM
MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH MONDAY ONCE
THAT FRONT MOVES THROUGH, LEADING TO MID TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THE
MORNING, AND UPPER 30S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY, AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, RAIN TRANSITIONS TO A
WINTRY MIX IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SNOW SHOWERS SLOWLY TAPER OFF
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LEAD TO MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA
LEADING TO LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
TUESDAY, IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH, COLD-DRY AIR CONTINUES
TO WORK INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES "WARM" INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 30S
THROUGH THE DAY. DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL LEAD TO RH'S
IN THE 20S. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM ALBERTA, LOWS
WILL RANGE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20'S. AS MENTIONED, A SHORTWAVE WILL
RIDE THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE-TROUGH FLOW AND BRING A LOW END
ISOLATED CHANCE OF RAIN-SNOW TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY ON
WEDNESDAY. COLD AIR REMAINS FOR ONE LAST DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. THURSDAY LOOKS TO
REMAIN QUIET, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LEADING TO TEMPERATURE WARMING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, BEFORE COOLING INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S AT NIGHT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE WINDS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY JUST OFF THE SURFACE. THIS MAY RESULT
IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR A BRIEF TIME
EARLY IN THE DAY, BEFORE HEATING/MIXING OCCURS. ONCE MIXING
OCCURS, STRONG WINDS WILL REACH GROUND LEVEL. SW-WSW GUSTS OF
35-45 KTS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AROUND 14-15Z AND THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY. SIGNIFICANT SLACKENING OF THE WIND IS EXPECTED
AROUND SUNSET.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ104-106>120.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...MARCUS
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...HAL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page