573
FXUS63 KJKL 131757
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
157 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY, AND THIS COULD
COMBINE WITH DRY AIR TO RESULT IN A THREAT OF WILDFIRES.
- THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL OF
SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, LEADING
TO CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES. ONGOING STRONG WINDS OVERLAPPING
WITH CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, WARRANTED THE ISSUANCE
OF A RED FLAG WARNING. ASIDE FROM THE HIGH FIRE DANGER RISK, TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 834 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
AN INTENSE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON ITS SOUTHER PERIPHERY WILL BRING VERY GUSTY WINDS
TODAY, WITH MIXED LAYERS IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING GUSTS OF
40 TO PERHAPS 50 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR THIS. VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND RH
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT FROM 25-35% MOST PLACES. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD
ALSO REACH 15 MPH IN SOME PLACES, BUT AT THIS TIME CRITICAL LEVELS
OF EACH PARAMETER ARE NOT FORECAST TO OVERLAP. HOWEVER, SMALL
DEVIATIONS FROM EXPECTATIONS COULD CHANGE THIS, AND FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE HEADLINE.
REGARDLESS, THE DRY AND WINDY WEATHER PRESENTS AN INCREASED RISK
OF WILDFIRES. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, EASING WINDS, AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR
CHILLY TEMPERATURES BY DAWN ON SATURDAY.
THE FRONT WILL SETTLE JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND THEN
TRANSITION BACK TO OUR NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY SUNDAY. THE BRUNT
OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH, AND
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS WARM
AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA ALOFT, FROM THE SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE,
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY ALIGN WITH FLOW ALOFT AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S.
SUNDAY, THIS TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE OZARKS, WITH MANY MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THIS TROUGH HAVING A SLIGHT NEGATIVE
TILT. A LLJ WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA, WITH 12Z LREF GRAND ENSEMBLE
SHOWING A 70-95% CHANCE OF SEEING WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 35 MPH.
BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF 30-33 KTS (34-38
MPH)AT SOMERSET. AS SUCH, WIND GUSTS WERE BLENDED UP USING THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF THE NBM. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 25-35 MPH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STERN SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION, LEADING TO TEMPERATURE
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S.
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM REMAINS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM
OF A QLCS, AND COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE IN NATURE. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED ALL OF WAYNE, MOST OF PULASKI, AND
ROCKCASTLE, AND SMALL PORTIONS OF MCCREARY, MONTGOMERY, AND FLEMING
IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SHARPLY BEHIND THE FRONT, SOME 10-
15 DEGREES IN THE MATTER OF A FEW HOURS. A SHIFT IN TIMING IN EITHER
DIRECTION COULD LEAD TO A "BUSTED FORECAST" FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY. THIS IS BECAUSE THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MONDAY
WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN A 2-4 HOUR WINDOW IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
MONDAY. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT,
WHICH WOULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE THE UPPER 30S ALONG
THE I-75 CORRIDOR, TO LOW 50S IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES LIKE PIKE,
MARTIN, FLOYD AND OTHERS. MEANWHILE, A SLOWER SOLUTION (EVEN BY JUST
AN HOUR OR TWO) AS MODELED BY THE NAM AND GFS, WOULD LEAD TO LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR, TO
THE LOW TO MID 60S FURTHER EAST. AT CURRENT, THE FORECAST WILL SAY
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S FARTHER EAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHTS LOW. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR
AND MID 50S TO MID 60S FARTHER EAST. THE FACT OF THE MATTER IS BOTH
WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND IN A 2-4 HOUR WINDOW, BETWEEN 6-10 AM
MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH MONDAY ONCE
THAT FRONT MOVES THROUGH, LEADING TO MID TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THE
MORNING, AND UPPER 30S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY, AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, RAIN TRANSITIONS TO A
WINTRY MIX IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SNOW SHOWERS SLOWLY TAPER OFF
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LEAD TO MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA
LEADING TO LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
TUESDAY, IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH, COLD-DRY AIR CONTINUES
TO WORK INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES "WARM" INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 30S
THROUGH THE DAY. DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL LEAD TO RH'S
IN THE 20S. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM ALBERTA, LOWS
WILL RANGE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20'S. AS MENTIONED, A SHORTWAVE WILL
RIDE THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE-TROUGH FLOW AND BRING A LOW END
ISOLATED CHANCE OF RAIN-SNOW TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY ON
WEDNESDAY. COLD AIR REMAINS FOR ONE LAST DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. THURSDAY LOOKS TO
REMAIN QUIET, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LEADING TO TEMPERATURE WARMING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, BEFORE COOLING INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S AT NIGHT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE WINDS. SW GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE SLACKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND SUNSET. ANY
CEILINGS WILL BE LIMITED TO PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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