183
FXUS63 KJKL 132054
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
454 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING, AND
THIS COULD COMBINE WITH DRY AIR TO RESULT IN A THREAT OF
WILDFIRES.
- THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL OF
SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 454 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
AFTER A WINDY DAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES
ARE SUBSIDING EARLY THIS EVENING, AND THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELED OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RED FLAG
WARNING CONTINUES, THOUGH, AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN IN
THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO QUITE MILD, RANGING FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THE STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN COURTESY OF THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT JET OF A DEEP, AROUND 990 MB LOW PASSING LOWER
MICHIGAN. AN OCCLUDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
SURFACE LOW TO OVER LAKE ERIE, AND THEN THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW TO ALONG THE LOWER OHIO RIVER.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
COMMONWEALTH THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT BUT WILL STALL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL FORCING
QUICKLY DEPARTS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND. WITH VERY
LITTLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE, EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN SOME PATCHY
MID-TO-HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A SHIFT TO A
DRIER, LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE OVERNIGHT. MANY OF THE SHELTERED
VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO GO CALM TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT QUICKLY RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. AS WINDS SUBSIDE, A RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IS
LIKELY TO SET UP, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
THE EARLIEST. LOOK FOR LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN
THE SHELTERED NORTHERN HOLLOWS (LIKE WEST LIBERTY AND SANDY HOOK)
TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON RIDGES AND OVER FAR SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH A DRIER AIR MASS OVER MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY,
FEATURING DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CUMBERLAND BASIN CLOSER TO THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT
THAN TODAY, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH OF I-64 TO NEAR 70F
IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE CUMBERLAND. THE LOW DEW POINTS WILL LEAD
TO ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICALLY LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES, RANGING FROM 15 PERCENT IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY TO
NEAR 30 PERCENT IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE CUMBERLAND. WINDS WILL BE
MUCH LIGHTER, THOUGH, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH OUT OF THE NORTH
TO EAST.
THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING A SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE RETURN FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO DROP OFF QUICKLY,
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS, AFTER SUNSET WITH EARLY NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE
MID 30S IN NORTHERN HOLLOWS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S ON RIDGES
NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND, HOLDING STEADY OR RISING OVERNIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS WARM
AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA ALOFT, FROM THE SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE,
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY ALIGN WITH FLOW ALOFT AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S.
SUNDAY, THIS TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE OZARKS, WITH MANY MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THIS TROUGH HAVING A SLIGHT NEGATIVE
TILT. A LLJ WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA, WITH 12Z LREF GRAND ENSEMBLE
SHOWING A 70-95% CHANCE OF SEEING WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 35 MPH.
BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF 30-33 KTS (34-38
MPH)AT SOMERSET. AS SUCH, WIND GUSTS WERE BLENDED UP USING THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF THE NBM. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 25-35 MPH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STERN SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION, LEADING TO TEMPERATURE
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S.
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM REMAINS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM
OF A QLCS, AND COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE IN NATURE. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED ALL OF WAYNE, MOST OF PULASKI, AND
ROCKCASTLE, AND SMALL PORTIONS OF MCCREARY, MONTGOMERY, AND FLEMING
IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SHARPLY BEHIND THE FRONT, SOME 10-
15 DEGREES IN THE MATTER OF A FEW HOURS. A SHIFT IN TIMING IN EITHER
DIRECTION COULD LEAD TO A "BUSTED FORECAST" FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY. THIS IS BECAUSE THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MONDAY
WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN A 2-4 HOUR WINDOW IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
MONDAY. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT,
WHICH WOULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE THE UPPER 30S ALONG
THE I-75 CORRIDOR, TO LOW 50S IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES LIKE PIKE,
MARTIN, FLOYD AND OTHERS. MEANWHILE, A SLOWER SOLUTION (EVEN BY JUST
AN HOUR OR TWO) AS MODELED BY THE NAM AND GFS, WOULD LEAD TO LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR, TO
THE LOW TO MID 60S FURTHER EAST. AT CURRENT, THE FORECAST WILL SAY
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S FARTHER EAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHTS LOW. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR
AND MID 50S TO MID 60S FARTHER EAST. THE FACT OF THE MATTER IS BOTH
WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND IN A 2-4 HOUR WINDOW, BETWEEN 6-10 AM
MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH MONDAY ONCE
THAT FRONT MOVES THROUGH, LEADING TO MID TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THE
MORNING, AND UPPER 30S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY, AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, RAIN TRANSITIONS TO A
WINTRY MIX IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SNOW SHOWERS SLOWLY TAPER OFF
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LEAD TO MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA
LEADING TO LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
TUESDAY, IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH, COLD-DRY AIR CONTINUES
TO WORK INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES "WARM" INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 30S
THROUGH THE DAY. DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL LEAD TO RH'S
IN THE 20S. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM ALBERTA, LOWS
WILL RANGE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20'S. AS MENTIONED, A SHORTWAVE WILL
RIDE THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE-TROUGH FLOW AND BRING A LOW END
ISOLATED CHANCE OF RAIN-SNOW TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY ON
WEDNESDAY. COLD AIR REMAINS FOR ONE LAST DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. THURSDAY LOOKS TO
REMAIN QUIET, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LEADING TO TEMPERATURE WARMING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, BEFORE COOLING INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S AT NIGHT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE WINDS. SW GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE SLACKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND SUNSET. ANY
CEILINGS WILL BE LIMITED TO PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-104-106>112-114-119-120.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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