112
FXUS63 KJKL 132250
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
650 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING, AND
THIS COULD COMBINE WITH DRY AIR TO RESULT IN A THREAT OF
WILDFIRES.
- THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL OF
SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 454 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
AFTER A WINDY DAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES
ARE SUBSIDING EARLY THIS EVENING, AND THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELED OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RED FLAG
WARNING CONTINUES, THOUGH, AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN IN
THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO QUITE MILD, RANGING FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THE STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN COURTESY OF THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT JET OF A DEEP, AROUND 990 MB LOW PASSING LOWER
MICHIGAN. AN OCCLUDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
SURFACE LOW TO OVER LAKE ERIE, AND THEN THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW TO ALONG THE LOWER OHIO RIVER.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
COMMONWEALTH THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT BUT WILL STALL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL FORCING
QUICKLY DEPARTS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND. WITH VERY
LITTLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE, EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN SOME PATCHY
MID-TO-HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A SHIFT TO A
DRIER, LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE OVERNIGHT. MANY OF THE SHELTERED
VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO GO CALM TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT QUICKLY RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. AS WINDS SUBSIDE, A RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IS
LIKELY TO SET UP, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
THE EARLIEST. LOOK FOR LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN
THE SHELTERED NORTHERN HOLLOWS (LIKE WEST LIBERTY AND SANDY HOOK)
TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON RIDGES AND OVER FAR SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH A DRIER AIR MASS OVER MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY,
FEATURING DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CUMBERLAND BASIN CLOSER TO THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT
THAN TODAY, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH OF I-64 TO NEAR 70F
IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE CUMBERLAND. THE LOW DEW POINTS WILL LEAD
TO ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICALLY LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES, RANGING FROM 15 PERCENT IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY TO
NEAR 30 PERCENT IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE CUMBERLAND. WINDS WILL BE
MUCH LIGHTER, THOUGH, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH OUT OF THE NORTH
TO EAST.
THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING A SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE RETURN FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO DROP OFF QUICKLY,
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS, AFTER SUNSET WITH EARLY NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE
MID 30S IN NORTHERN HOLLOWS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S ON RIDGES
NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND, HOLDING STEADY OR RISING OVERNIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW OVER THE
CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A STRENGTHENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
START OUT PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS/ROCKIES EARLY SUNDAY, WHILE A SEASONABLY STRONG EASTERN
PACIFIC RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE WEST COAST. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH A FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE FROM THE MIDWEST INTO PORTIONS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY, BEFORE CURLING NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A POWERFUL COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE
DEEP TROUGH WILL THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND BROADEN WITH TIME
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHILE BROAD RIDGING WORKS IN OVER
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES. MODEL GUIDANCE DISAGREES
MORE SO ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT AND SHARPNESS OF THE RIDGING
TOWARDS THE END OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK, WHICH WILL DICTATE HOW
QUICKLY 500 MB HEIGHTS RECOVER OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
AFTER WEDNESDAY.
ON SUNDAY, BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MIGRATING FROM THE MIDWEST TO
PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE CONTINUED TO MODIFY THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE UPWARD FOR THIS PATTERN, USING MORE OF A 90TH PERCENTILE
FOR SURFACE WINDS/GUSTS. CONSEQUENTLY, ALSO WENT MORE AGGRESSIVE
ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURES, USING A 75TH PERCENTILE, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THAT THE FLOW IS DOWNSLOPED. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AREA-WIDE. SUNDAY NIGHT, AN INTENSE SQUALL LINE
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AN INBOUND POWERFUL COLD FRONT. THIS
LINE WILL LIKELY SHEAR AND LOSE LIGHTNING WITH TIME AS IT WORKS
FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, WHERE
THE SURFACE-850 MB FLOW WILL REMAIN DOWNSLOPED. STILL, THE 850 MB
JET IS AS HIGH AS 70 KTS IN SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE, SO THIS
MAY OVERCOME THE WEAK INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. AS IS
TYPICAL IN THIS SETUP, LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF I-75 WILL STAND
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
WITH CHANCES DROPPING OFF TO THE EAST. STILL, IT WILL BE WINDY
EITHER WAY, AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE 925-850 MB WIND FIELD,
35-45 MPH+ WIND GUSTS JUST AHEAD OF AND ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW
VERTICALLY STACKED THETA SURFACES REMAIN IN A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BELOW 700 MB. THE NAM/ECMWF ARE MORE BULLISH,
WHILE THE GFS IS MORE MUTED WITH THIS SIGNAL. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BLENDED GUIDANCE IS USUALLY TOO
SLOW WITH THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS, SO HAVE FAVORED A FASTER TIMING
WITH THE POPS.
WINTER WILL RETURN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ESTABLISHED EARLY IN THE DAY ON MONDAY, RANGING FROM THE 40S
WEST, TO AROUND 60 IN THE EAST (HIGHLY TIMING DEPENDENT).
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN FALL THROUGH THE 30S FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST. THIS CHANGEOVER WILL ALSO OCCUR EARLIER ACROSS OUR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES
WILL LIMIT THE IMPACTS, BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON ELEVATED SURFACES, AND SOME IMPACT ABOVE 2500 FEET CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT. MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY, WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
COULD THREATEN MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS, GENERALLY IN THE
MID 30S, PARTICULARLY IF CLOUDS HOLD ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TUESDAY, WITH LOWS
AROUND 20, ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUD COVER COULD THWART THESE READINGS.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS
WILL MODERATE FROM THE 40S AND 50S ON WEDNESDAY, TO THE LOW TO MID
60S BY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A SMALL POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION
ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE WINDS. SW GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE SLACKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND SUNSET. ANY
CEILINGS WILL BE LIMITED TO PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-104-106>112-114-119-120.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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