189
FXUS63 KJKL 140811
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
411 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL OF
SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
THROUGH TODAY, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS WARM AIR
WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA ALOFT, FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS AREA,
AND LOW TO UPPER 60S FUTHER SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE, LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS WILL SLOWLY ALIGN WITH FLOW ALOFT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN BLENDED TOWARDS
THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM TO ACCOUNT FOR A SEASONAL BIAS.
DECOUPLED VALLEYS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S IN THE EAST, AND MID TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE. RIDGE TOPS MAY
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S. ALL THIS OCCURS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH, THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY, THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, AS THE
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE OZARKS. WITH A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER, AND A 40-
60 KT LLJ, GUSTY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE 00Z HREF GRAND ENSEMBLE SHOWS AN AREA
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR, WITH A 90% CHANCE OF
SEEING WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH OR GREATER. THESE PROBABILITIES DROP THE
FURTHER EAST ONE GETS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT
SOMERSET SHOW MOMENTUM TRANSFER POTENTIAL AS HIGH AS 33 KTS (38
MPH). THE NBM WAS SUGGESTING WIND GUST IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE.
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS WERE ADJUSTED UP BY BLENDING TOWARDS THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF THE NBM. NEIGHBORING OFFICES ALSO BLENDED WIND GUSTS
UPWARD THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH ARE NOW IN
THE FORECAST, WITH ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE. STERN
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION, LEADING TO
TEMPERATURE CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 70S. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THE LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE OZARKS, INCLUDING WESTERN KENTUCKY.
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE (DEW POINTS IN THE 60S), INSTABILITY, AND A
STRENGTHENING LLJ, THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED INITIATE
STORMS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY FORM INTO A QLCS. THIS QLCS WILL THEN
SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY EAST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW OVER THE
CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A STRENGTHENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
START OUT PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS/ROCKIES EARLY SUNDAY, WHILE A SEASONABLY STRONG EASTERN
PACIFIC RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE WEST COAST. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH A FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE FROM THE MIDWEST INTO PORTIONS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY, BEFORE CURLING NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A POWERFUL COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE
DEEP TROUGH WILL THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND BROADEN WITH TIME
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHILE BROAD RIDGING WORKS IN OVER
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES. MODEL GUIDANCE DISAGREES
MORE SO ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT AND SHARPNESS OF THE RIDGING
TOWARDS THE END OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK, WHICH WILL DICTATE HOW
QUICKLY 500 MB HEIGHTS RECOVER OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
AFTER WEDNESDAY.
ON SUNDAY, BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MIGRATING FROM THE MIDWEST TO
PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE CONTINUED TO MODIFY THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE UPWARD FOR THIS PATTERN, USING MORE OF A 90TH PERCENTILE
FOR SURFACE WINDS/GUSTS. CONSEQUENTLY, ALSO WENT MORE AGGRESSIVE
ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURES, USING A 75TH PERCENTILE, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THAT THE FLOW IS DOWNSLOPED. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AREA-WIDE. SUNDAY NIGHT, AN INTENSE SQUALL LINE
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AN INBOUND POWERFUL COLD FRONT. THIS
LINE WILL LIKELY SHEAR AND LOSE LIGHTNING WITH TIME AS IT WORKS
FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, WHERE
THE SURFACE-850 MB FLOW WILL REMAIN DOWNSLOPED. STILL, THE 850 MB
JET IS AS HIGH AS 70 KTS IN SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE, SO THIS
MAY OVERCOME THE WEAK INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. AS IS
TYPICAL IN THIS SETUP, LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF I-75 WILL STAND
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
WITH CHANCES DROPPING OFF TO THE EAST. STILL, IT WILL BE WINDY
EITHER WAY, AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE 925-850 MB WIND FIELD,
35-45 MPH+ WIND GUSTS JUST AHEAD OF AND ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW
VERTICALLY STACKED THETA SURFACES REMAIN IN A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BELOW 700 MB. THE NAM/ECMWF ARE MORE BULLISH,
WHILE THE GFS IS MORE MUTED WITH THIS SIGNAL. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BLENDED GUIDANCE IS USUALLY TOO
SLOW WITH THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS, SO HAVE FAVORED A FASTER TIMING
WITH THE POPS.
WINTER WILL RETURN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ESTABLISHED EARLY IN THE DAY ON MONDAY, RANGING FROM THE 40S
WEST, TO AROUND 60 IN THE EAST (HIGHLY TIMING DEPENDENT).
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN FALL THROUGH THE 30S FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST. THIS CHANGEOVER WILL ALSO OCCUR EARLIER ACROSS OUR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES
WILL LIMIT THE IMPACTS, BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON ELEVATED SURFACES, AND SOME IMPACT ABOVE 2500 FEET CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT. MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY, WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
COULD THREATEN MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS, GENERALLY IN THE
MID 30S, PARTICULARLY IF CLOUDS HOLD ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TUESDAY, WITH LOWS
AROUND 20, ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUD COVER COULD THWART THESE READINGS.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS
WILL MODERATE FROM THE 40S AND 50S ON WEDNESDAY, TO THE LOW TO MID
60S BY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A SMALL POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION
ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BECOMING EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA, WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...GINNICK
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