042
FXUS63 KJKL 141128
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
728 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL OF
SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
THROUGH TODAY, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS WARM AIR
WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA ALOFT, FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS AREA,
AND LOW TO UPPER 60S FUTHER SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE, LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS WILL SLOWLY ALIGN WITH FLOW ALOFT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN BLENDED TOWARDS
THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM TO ACCOUNT FOR A SEASONAL BIAS.
DECOUPLED VALLEYS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S IN THE EAST, AND MID TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE. RIDGE TOPS MAY
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S. ALL THIS OCCURS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH, THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY, THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, AS THE
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE OZARKS. WITH A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER, AND A 40-
60 KT LLJ, GUSTY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE 00Z HREF GRAND ENSEMBLE SHOWS AN AREA
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR, WITH A 90% CHANCE OF
SEEING WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH OR GREATER. THESE PROBABILITIES DROP THE
FURTHER EAST ONE GETS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT
SOMERSET SHOW MOMENTUM TRANSFER POTENTIAL AS HIGH AS 33 KTS (38
MPH). THE NBM WAS SUGGESTING WIND GUST IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE.
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS WERE ADJUSTED UP BY BLENDING TOWARDS THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF THE NBM. NEIGHBORING OFFICES ALSO BLENDED WIND GUSTS
UPWARD THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH ARE NOW IN
THE FORECAST, WITH ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE. STERN
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION, LEADING TO
TEMPERATURE CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 70S. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THE LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE OZARKS, INCLUDING WESTERN KENTUCKY.
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE (DEW POINTS IN THE 60S), INSTABILITY, AND A
STRENGTHENING LLJ, THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED INITIATE
STORMS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY FORM INTO A QLCS. THIS QLCS WILL THEN
SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY EAST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH A SHARP, HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH PUNCHING
SOUTHEAST OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS, AND A NORTHEAST MOVING,
INTENSE, SURFACE LOW NEAR CHICAGO. THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW AND WILL BE MOVING EAST
THROUGH THE JKL FORECAST AREA VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY ON
MONDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY AT BEST IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK CAPPED TO CONVECTION UNTIL
PERHAPS RIGHT AT FROPA, WITH FORCING ALONG THE FRONT GIVING A
POTENTIAL FOR A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. IF CONVECTION CAN
BE GENERATED FROM MARGINAL INSTABILITY, SHEAR LOOKS TO BE
EXTREMELY STRONG AND SPC HAS PLACED THE FORECAST AREA IN A
MARGINAL (EAST) TO SLIGHT (WEST) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. OUR
PREFRONTAL LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA ALSO LOOKS TO BE DOWNSLOPE OFF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS,
WHICH COULD LIMIT MOISTURE (AND INSTABILITY) BEFORE FROPA. AFTER
FROPA, A PERIOD OF STRATIFORM PRECIP SHOULD SET IN.
LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ON MONDAY STILL LOOK
PROBLEMATIC DUE TO A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THE START OF THE DAY ON MONDAY, WITH
ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL TIMING HAVING A POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN LOWS/HIGHS. NBM LOWS/HIGHS FOR THAT
TIME PERIOD DID NOT LOOK REALISTIC AND A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND
NAM WAS USED TO DERIVE THE VALUES FROM THE HOURLY FORECAST.
AFTER THE INITIAL SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT,
READINGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON MONDAY SHOULD BE NEAR
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING. THIS WILL ALLOW ANY PRECIP WHICH HOLDS
ON LONG ENOUGH TO CHANGE TO SNOW AND THEN SNOW SHOWERS AS UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOST AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN IN
UPSLOPE COLD AIR ADVECTION. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHEAST KY. HOWEVER, IT
WOULD BE LIMITED IN MOST OF THE AREA BY MARGINAL TEMPERATURES AND
WARM GROUND. CONTINUED ADVECTION OF COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL TAPER SNOW SHOWERS DOWN TO
FLURRIES ON MONDAY NIGHT. READING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20
BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE HARSH FOR ANY EARLY FLOWERS/BLOSSOMS
PRESENT AFTER OUR PLENTIFUL WARM WEATHER OF THE LAST COUPLE OF
WEEKS.
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL LEAVE BEHIND A GENERALIZED EASTERN
CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN CONUS RIDGE FOR MID TO LATE WEEK,
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR AREA. AFTER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, MILDER TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN. A
COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS SHOULD CROSS THROUGH THE MIDWEST
MID TO LATE WEEK AND COULD BRING SOME PRECIP TO OUR AREA. HOWEVER,
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THERE WON'T BE STRONG MOISTURE RETURN,
AND THE POP LOOKS LOW AND ANY PRECIP AMOUNTS LIGHT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 727 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY, BUT GENERALLY VEERING TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AROUND 06Z. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA, WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT. THERE
MAY BE LLWS OUT OF THE SOUTH AT ALL TERMINALS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD (05-14Z SUNDAY), HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS LOW THAT
WINDS BELOW 2KFT WOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH, SO IT WAS LEFT OUT OF THE
TAFS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GINNICK
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