797
FXUS63 KJKL 141750
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
150 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL OF
SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
THROUGH THE 60S SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY AND TOWARD 60F
FURTHER NORTH. LOW DEW POINTS ARE LEADING TO ARID RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS -- 15 TO 35 PERCENT AT PRESENT ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1051 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING RAPIDLY UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND WERE RUNNING ABOVE THE HOURLY FORECAST. WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE AND ONGOING STRONG SENSIBLE HEATING, THE AFTERNOON MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS RAISED TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F
NORTH OF I-64 AND TO AROUND 70F IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE
CUMBERLAND. THE MILD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL
YIELD A DELIGHTFUL EARLY SPRING AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN
KENTUCKY COALFIELDS AND ADJACENT REGIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 747 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
UPDATED THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM
AROUND THE ARE. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. DEW
POINTS WERE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST. DECIDED TO
GO WITH THE 5TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
THROUGH TODAY, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS WARM AIR
WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA ALOFT, FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS AREA,
AND LOW TO UPPER 60S FUTHER SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE, LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS WILL SLOWLY ALIGN WITH FLOW ALOFT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN BLENDED TOWARDS
THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM TO ACCOUNT FOR A SEASONAL BIAS.
DECOUPLED VALLEYS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S IN THE EAST, AND MID TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE. RIDGE TOPS MAY
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S. ALL THIS OCCURS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH, THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY, THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, AS THE
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE OZARKS. WITH A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER, AND A 40-
60 KT LLJ, GUSTY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE 00Z HREF GRAND ENSEMBLE SHOWS AN AREA
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR, WITH A 90% CHANCE OF
SEEING WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH OR GREATER. THESE PROBABILITIES DROP THE
FURTHER EAST ONE GETS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT
SOMERSET SHOW MOMENTUM TRANSFER POTENTIAL AS HIGH AS 33 KTS (38
MPH). THE NBM WAS SUGGESTING WIND GUST IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE.
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS WERE ADJUSTED UP BY BLENDING TOWARDS THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF THE NBM. NEIGHBORING OFFICES ALSO BLENDED WIND GUSTS
UPWARD THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH ARE NOW IN
THE FORECAST, WITH ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE. STERN
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION, LEADING TO
TEMPERATURE CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 70S. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THE LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE OZARKS, INCLUDING WESTERN KENTUCKY.
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE (DEW POINTS IN THE 60S), INSTABILITY, AND A
STRENGTHENING LLJ, THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED INITIATE
STORMS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY FORM INTO A QLCS. THIS QLCS WILL THEN
SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY EAST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH A SHARP, HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH PUNCHING
SOUTHEAST OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS, AND A NORTHEAST MOVING,
INTENSE, SURFACE LOW NEAR CHICAGO. THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW AND WILL BE MOVING EAST
THROUGH THE JKL FORECAST AREA VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY ON
MONDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY AT BEST IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK CAPPED TO CONVECTION UNTIL
PERHAPS RIGHT AT FROPA, WITH FORCING ALONG THE FRONT GIVING A
POTENTIAL FOR A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. IF CONVECTION CAN
BE GENERATED FROM MARGINAL INSTABILITY, SHEAR LOOKS TO BE
EXTREMELY STRONG AND SPC HAS PLACED THE FORECAST AREA IN A
MARGINAL (EAST) TO SLIGHT (WEST) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. OUR
PREFRONTAL LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA ALSO LOOKS TO BE DOWNSLOPE OFF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS,
WHICH COULD LIMIT MOISTURE (AND INSTABILITY) BEFORE FROPA. AFTER
FROPA, A PERIOD OF STRATIFORM PRECIP SHOULD SET IN.
LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ON MONDAY STILL LOOK
PROBLEMATIC DUE TO A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THE START OF THE DAY ON MONDAY, WITH
ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL TIMING HAVING A POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN LOWS/HIGHS. NBM LOWS/HIGHS FOR THAT
TIME PERIOD DID NOT LOOK REALISTIC AND A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND
NAM WAS USED TO DERIVE THE VALUES FROM THE HOURLY FORECAST.
AFTER THE INITIAL SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT,
READINGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON MONDAY SHOULD BE NEAR
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING. THIS WILL ALLOW ANY PRECIP WHICH HOLDS
ON LONG ENOUGH TO CHANGE TO SNOW AND THEN SNOW SHOWERS AS UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOST AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN IN
UPSLOPE COLD AIR ADVECTION. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHEAST KY. HOWEVER, IT
WOULD BE LIMITED IN MOST OF THE AREA BY MARGINAL TEMPERATURES AND
WARM GROUND. CONTINUED ADVECTION OF COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL TAPER SNOW SHOWERS DOWN TO
FLURRIES ON MONDAY NIGHT. READING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20
BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE HARSH FOR ANY EARLY FLOWERS/BLOSSOMS
PRESENT AFTER OUR PLENTIFUL WARM WEATHER OF THE LAST COUPLE OF
WEEKS.
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL LEAVE BEHIND A GENERALIZED EASTERN
CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND WESTERN CONUS RIDGE FOR MID TO LATE WEEK,
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR AREA. AFTER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, MILDER TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN. A
COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS SHOULD CROSS THROUGH THE MIDWEST
MID TO LATE WEEK AND COULD BRING SOME PRECIP TO OUR AREA. HOWEVER,
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THERE WON'T BE STRONG MOISTURE RETURN,
AND THE POP LOOKS LOW AND ANY PRECIP AMOUNTS LIGHT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
SMOKE FROM ONGOING PRESCRIBED/WILDLAND FIRE IN THE DANIEL BOONE
NATIONAL FOREST. EVENTUAL VISIBILITY OBSTRUCTIONS DUE TO SMOKE ARE
POSSIBLE AT OR IN THE VICINITY OF THE SME AIRFIELD AND AMENDMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN GENERALLY VEERING TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TONIGHT. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA, WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT. ADDITIONALLY, LLWS
OUT OF THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY AS A LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ044-050-051-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083-084.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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