766
FXUS63 KJKL 141837
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
237 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL OF
SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
THROUGH THE 60S SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY AND TOWARD 60F
FURTHER NORTH. LOW DEW POINTS ARE LEADING TO ARID RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS -- 15 TO 35 PERCENT AT PRESENT ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1051 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING RAPIDLY UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND WERE RUNNING ABOVE THE HOURLY FORECAST. WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE AND ONGOING STRONG SENSIBLE HEATING, THE AFTERNOON MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS RAISED TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F
NORTH OF I-64 AND TO AROUND 70F IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE
CUMBERLAND. THE MILD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL
YIELD A DELIGHTFUL EARLY SPRING AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN
KENTUCKY COALFIELDS AND ADJACENT REGIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 747 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
UPDATED THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM
AROUND THE ARE. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. DEW
POINTS WERE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST. DECIDED TO
GO WITH THE 5TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
THROUGH TODAY, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS WARM AIR
WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA ALOFT, FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS AREA,
AND LOW TO UPPER 60S FUTHER SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE, LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS WILL SLOWLY ALIGN WITH FLOW ALOFT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN BLENDED TOWARDS
THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM TO ACCOUNT FOR A SEASONAL BIAS.
DECOUPLED VALLEYS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S IN THE EAST, AND MID TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE. RIDGE TOPS MAY
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S. ALL THIS OCCURS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH, THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY, THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, AS THE
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE OZARKS. WITH A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER, AND A 40-
60 KT LLJ, GUSTY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE 00Z HREF GRAND ENSEMBLE SHOWS AN AREA
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR, WITH A 90% CHANCE OF
SEEING WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH OR GREATER. THESE PROBABILITIES DROP THE
FURTHER EAST ONE GETS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT
SOMERSET SHOW MOMENTUM TRANSFER POTENTIAL AS HIGH AS 33 KTS (38
MPH). THE NBM WAS SUGGESTING WIND GUST IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE.
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS WERE ADJUSTED UP BY BLENDING TOWARDS THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF THE NBM. NEIGHBORING OFFICES ALSO BLENDED WIND GUSTS
UPWARD THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH ARE NOW IN
THE FORECAST, WITH ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE. STERN
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION, LEADING TO
TEMPERATURE CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 70S. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THE LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE OZARKS, INCLUDING WESTERN KENTUCKY.
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE (DEW POINTS IN THE 60S), INSTABILITY, AND A
STRENGTHENING LLJ, THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED INITIATE
STORMS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY FORM INTO A QLCS. THIS QLCS WILL THEN
SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY EAST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE COMMONWEALTH IN THE MIDST OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS STRONG FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
LOW CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE CONUS. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AND ITS VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW MOVE FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
TRAJECTORY, THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE CWA.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH FROPA. HOWEVER, AS COLDER
AIR WRAPS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO FALL RAPIDLY BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
QUICK TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO A RAIN-SNOW MIX, AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL
SNOW BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY
PRECIPITATION, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WINDY
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. BLUSTERY WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
APPROXIMATELY 10 TO 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS FOR MONDAY WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING PRECIPITOUSLY FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
FORECAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH, WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH ALONG AND
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LREF PROBABILITIES SUPPORT THESE HIGHER WINDS,
INDICATING A 70 TO 90% CHANCE OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH.
PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH DECREASE TO 10 TO 40% FOR
MOST OF THE AREA, THOUGH A 50% CHANCE EXISTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
CWA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER. COUPLED WITH
PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS, THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SQUALLS INCREASES RAPIDLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE SQUALLS MAY OCCUR FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
EVENING, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE MONDAY EVENING COMMUTE. GIVEN
THESE IMPACTS, AN SPS OR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED TO
HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SQUALLS MATERIALIZE, AS WELL AS WITHIN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS
OF THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG THE VA BORDER.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION, ALLOWING SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN BREEZY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS
THROUGH AND THE AREA STAYS WITHIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT;
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL SLACKEN AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY. NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION, WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOW TO MID-30S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE PROGGED
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER-TEENS TO LOWER-20S, THOUGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR A RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM DIVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, INCREASING POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. AS THE CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH, AN INITIAL RAIN-SNOW MIX IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE WARMING TEMPERATURES CAUSE A TRANSITION TO RAIN.
WITH THE CURRENT TRACK ALIGNED MORE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN AT 20% OR LESS, WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE CLIPPER, BRINGING WARMING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
THE PERIOD IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGING RAIN,
FOLLOWED BY A QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW BY MID-MORNING MONDAY. SNOW
SQUALLS AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE COLD HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES TUESDAY. A PASSING CLIPPER BRINGS RENEWED RAIN
CHANCES WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
SMOKE FROM ONGOING PRESCRIBED/WILDLAND FIRE IN THE DANIEL BOONE
NATIONAL FOREST. EVENTUAL VISIBILITY OBSTRUCTIONS DUE TO SMOKE ARE
POSSIBLE AT OR IN THE VICINITY OF THE SME AIRFIELD AND AMENDMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN GENERALLY VEERING TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TONIGHT. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA, WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT. ADDITIONALLY, LLWS
OUT OF THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY AS A LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ044-050-051-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083-084.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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