225
FXUS63 KJKL 142252
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
652 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT NEAR ONGOING
CONTROLLED BURNS.
- WARM, DRY, AND WINDY WEATHER WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
ON SUNDAY.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM SUNDAY FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. EXPECT NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH.
- A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWEEP
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BRINGING A
RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND BRIEF TORNADOES.
- TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET MONDAY MORNING, QUICKLY CHANGING RAIN
TO SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY BURSTS OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS COULD
CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE MONDAY EVENING
COMMUTE.
- WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY RETURN ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS
ONLY REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 644 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
A SEASONABLY WARM AND QUIET DAY IS COMING TO A CLOSE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES HAVE PEAKED NEAR 60F NORTH OF I-64 AND TO
AROUND 70F ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND RIVER
BASIN. IT IS QUITE DRY THOUGH, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ONLY IN
THE 15 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS JUST SOME WISPY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA,
THOUGH AREAS OF SMOKE ARE NOTED, ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND
WHERE NUMEROUS PRESCRIBED WILDLAND BURNS ARE ONGOING. THE DELIGHTFUL
WEATHER IS COURTESY OF AN ~1025 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER LOWER
ONTARIO. THIS TRANQUIL PATTERN WILL NOT LAST LONG THOUGH, AS BIG
CHANGES ARE ALREADY BREWING. A POTENT 500 HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE CYCLOGENESIS
IS ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES OVER WYOMING AND
COLORADO WHILE A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS LURKS JUST TO THE
NORTH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL DIG DEEPLY
INTO THE HEART OF THE CONUS AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD. MEANWHILE,
THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY DEEPENS AS IT EXITS
EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING AND TREKS NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR
SAULT STE. MARIE, MI BY 12Z MONDAY, DEEPENING INTO AN UNUSUALLY
INTENSE ~980 MB LOW. TO THE EAST OF THE LOW, LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL
VEER SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AND INTENSIFY IN THE DEVELOPING WARM
SECTOR, SENDING WARMTH AND MOISTURE FLOODING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH A WARM FRONT TONIGHT, THOUGH THAT MOISTENING
WILL BE MORE MUTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE DRYING
EFFECTS OFF OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL LEAD TO ONLY
FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT AND EVEN POOR RECOVERIES ON
RIDGES. GIVEN THE EXPECTED NOCTURNAL RADIATIVE INVERSION
(COMPOUNDED BY A WARM FRONTAL INVERSION), SMOKE FROM PRESCRIBED
FIRES IS LIKELY TO BECOME TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT,
WARRANTING THE ISSUANCE OF A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY NEAR THE ONGOING
PRESCRIBED BURNS. THAT SMOKE SHOULD LIFT OUT QUICKLY ON SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL MIXING. TONIGHT'S TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN HOLLOWS TO MID
50S ON THERMAL BELT RIDGES, HOLDING STEADY OR RISING SLOWLY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT UNDER A WARM AIR ADVECTIVE
REGIME.
THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WARM SECTOR WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
JUST WEST OF THE JKL CWA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY--MOST OF OUR AREA
WILL BE UNDER 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF FLOW AT 850 HPA. GFS BUFKIT MIXED
LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER GENERALLY SUGGESTS ONLY 35 TO 40 KTS OF THAT
WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN ALONG AND WEST OF THE POTTSVILLE ESCARPMENT
WITH GENERALLY WEAKER WINDS FURTHER EAST. CONFIDENCE IN AFTERNOON
GUSTS REACHING/ EXCEEDING 40 MPH WAS HIGH ENOUGH FROM THE ESCARPMENT
WESTWARD FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM
EDT SUNDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA, SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
GENERALLY IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE SHOULD BE COMMON. WITH 850
HPA TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 11C AND DEEP MIXING, EXPECT
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS A DECENT MOISTURE REBOUND ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH THE
INTENSIFYING SOUTHERLY FLOW BUT THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE GIVEN THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT. TO COMPENSATE FOR THE LIKELY OVERLY
RAPID MOISTURE RETURN IN MODEL GUIDANCE, DEW POINTS ON SUNDAY
WERE LOWERED TO A BLEND OF THE NBM 5TH PERCENTILE AND HRRR. THIS
YIELDS AN EAST-WEST GRADIENT OF MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
RANGING FROM NEAR 25 PERCENT IN FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY NEAR/EAST OF
US-23 TO AROUND 40 PERCENT NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND. OF NOTE, THE
HDWI IS FLAGGING SUNDAY AS BEING A PARTICULARLY HOT, DRY, AND
WINDY DAY WITH VALUES IN THE 90TH TO 95TH PERCENTILE. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER GIVEN THE ROBUST
DRYING OF FUELS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND MEDIOCRE MOISTURE
RECOVERIES TONIGHT.
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY SUBSIDE SUNDAY EVENING WITH SOME
LIMITED STABILIZATION WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER, THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN AS THE 850 HPA
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RAMPS UP TO 60+ KNOTS AND LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO RENEWED MOMENTUM MIXDOWN TO THE SURFACE (ANOTHER BRIEF
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED) WHILE ALSO MAINTAINING A TONGUE OF
HIGH THETA-E AIR JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WHILE THE MOST
FAVORABLE PARAMETER SPACE FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY, RECENT CAM AND RAP SOLUTIONS SEEM
TO BE SUPPORTING MINIMAL BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR INSTANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER. WHILE
EQUILIBRIUM AND INSTABILITY LEVELS MAY BE TOO MARGINAL TO SUPPORT
NOTABLE THUNDER (ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE KY-15 CORRIDOR), THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG FORCING (BOTH ALOFT VIA AN INTENSIFYING
RIGHT JET ENTRANCE REGION AND A SURGING ARCTIC FRONT WITH A STARK
SURFACE THETA-E GRADIENT) IN A HSLC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD READILY
MAINTAIN AN ORGANIZED QLCS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. (RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW 40+ KNOTS OF 0 TO 1 KM BULK SHEAR YIELDING 300+ M2/S2 OF 0 TO
1 KM SRH, AND UP TO 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE, GREATEST OVER THE
CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN.) GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS THE LINE
MOVES INTO FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY WHERE THE THETA-E TONGUE WILL
BECOME WEAKER DUE TO DOWNSLOPE DRYING EFFECTS DOWNWIND OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS (INSTABILITY MAY ONLY BE A FEW DOZEN TO 100
J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER PIKE COUNTY). THE 0 TO 3 KM BULK SHEAR VECTOR
IS APPROXIMATELY 50 TO 55 KNOTS AT AROUND 200 TO 210 DEGREES AHEAD
OF THE FRONT--THUS ANY LINE SEGMENT THAT SURGES AND BECOMES MORE
N-S OR NW-SW WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT UTILIZING THAT SHEAR TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADO. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A LEVEL 1 INTENSITY FOR
THE WIND AND TORNADO THREATS ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY, INDICATING AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS (74+ MPH) AND EF-2 TORNADOES.
AGAIN THOUGH, THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY--PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST
OF KY-15 AND ALSO OVER THE EASTERN BLUEGRASS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE LAKE CUMBERLAND AREA
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY RACES
EASTWARD, EXITING PIKE COUNTY BY AROUND 5 AM. ONCE THE FRONT
PASSES, A PERIOD OF TRAILING STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE BLUSTERY WEST, ALBEIT SUB-
ADVISORY, WINDS. ASIDE FROM THE SEVERE CONVECTIVE AND
ENVIRONMENTAL WIND HAZARDS, BALMY TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SHOULD DROP SHARPLY INTO THE 40S AS THE QLCS PASSES AND
THEN CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH DAYBREAK. IN FACT, A LITTLE SNOW
COULD BEGIN MIXING IN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE JKL CWA BY
12Z MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE COMMONWEALTH IN THE MIDST OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS STRONG FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
LOW CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE CONUS. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AND ITS VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW MOVE FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
TRAJECTORY, THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE CWA.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH FROPA. HOWEVER, AS COLDER
AIR WRAPS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO FALL RAPIDLY BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
QUICK TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO A RAIN-SNOW MIX, AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL
SNOW BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY
PRECIPITATION, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WINDY
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. BLUSTERY WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
APPROXIMATELY 10 TO 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS FOR MONDAY WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING PRECIPITOUSLY FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
FORECAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH, WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH ALONG AND
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LREF PROBABILITIES SUPPORT THESE HIGHER WINDS,
INDICATING A 70 TO 90% CHANCE OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH.
PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH DECREASE TO 10 TO 40% FOR
MOST OF THE AREA, THOUGH A 50% CHANCE EXISTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
CWA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER. COUPLED WITH
PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS, THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SQUALLS INCREASES RAPIDLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE SQUALLS MAY OCCUR FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
EVENING, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE MONDAY EVENING COMMUTE. GIVEN
THESE IMPACTS, AN SPS OR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED TO
HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SQUALLS MATERIALIZE, AS WELL AS WITHIN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS
OF THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG THE VA BORDER.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION, ALLOWING SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN BREEZY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS
THROUGH AND THE AREA STAYS WITHIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT;
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL SLACKEN AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY. NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION, WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOW TO MID-30S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE PROGGED
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER-TEENS TO LOWER-20S, THOUGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR A RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM DIVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, INCREASING POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. AS THE CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH, AN INITIAL RAIN-SNOW MIX IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE WARMING TEMPERATURES CAUSE A TRANSITION TO RAIN.
WITH THE CURRENT TRACK ALIGNED MORE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN AT 20% OR LESS, WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE CLIPPER, BRINGING WARMING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
THE PERIOD IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGING RAIN,
FOLLOWED BY A QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW BY MID-MORNING MONDAY. SNOW
SQUALLS AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE COLD HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES TUESDAY. A PASSING CLIPPER BRINGS RENEWED RAIN
CHANCES WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
SMOKE FROM ONGOING PRESCRIBED/WILDLAND FIRE IN THE DANIEL BOONE
NATIONAL FOREST. EVENTUAL VISIBILITY OBSTRUCTIONS DUE TO SMOKE ARE
POSSIBLE AT OR IN THE VICINITY OF THE SME AIRFIELD AND AMENDMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN GENERALLY VEERING TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TONIGHT. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA, WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT. ADDITIONALLY, LLWS
OUT OF THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY AS A LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ044-050-051-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083-084.
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ079-080-
083>085-116-117.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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