993
FXUS63 KJKL 150819
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
419 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON TODAY NEAR
ONGOING CONTROLLED BURNS.
- WARM, DRY, AND WINDY WEATHER WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
TODAY.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM TODAY FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. EXPECT NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH.
- A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWEEP
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BRINGING A RISK
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND BRIEF TORNADOES.
- TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET MONDAY MORNING, QUICKLY CHANGING RAIN
TO SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY BURSTS OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS COULD
CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE MONDAY EVENING
COMMUTE.
- WINTER TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY RETURN ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
AN UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION IN MOIST, BRISK UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE
ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE MIXED CONVECTIVE
LAYER EXTENDING THROUGH THE DGZ, SNOW SHOWERS TO VARYING EXTENT
WILL BE ONGOING, WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION IN THE FAVORED
TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST KY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THE NBM POP
LOOKED UNDERDONE AND THE POP WAS RAISED FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
ON MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT IT MAY NOT BE
HIGH ENOUGH. WITH TIME, THE FRONTAL INVERSION WILL BE LOWERING AND
THE MOISTURE WILL BE MIXING AWAY, AND BY TUESDAY MORNING NOTHING
MORE THAN FLURRIES SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE LAST OF THE FLURRIES THEN END ON TUESDAY AND
SKIES CLEAR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TO
START TUESDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD READILY FALL DURING THE
EVENING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVERNIGHT, WHILE WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS THE SURFACE HIGH
DEPARTS TO THE EAST. THE SHORTWAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD HALT THE FALL FOR
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE NIGHT. HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS THICKEN
WILL AFFECT HOW COLD IT GETS, WHICH LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES.
THE COLUMN WILL BE MOISTENING LARGELY FROM THE TOP DOWN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. EVENTUALLY, DRYING ALOFT WILL BEGIN ON
WEDNESDAY. WHAT IS UNCERTAIN IS WHETHER OR NOT VIRGA CAN MOISTEN
THE LOWER LEVELS ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE DRYING ALOFT OCCURS. AT THIS POINT, LOW POPS
FOR PRECIP (RAIN AND/OR SNOW) ARE BEING CARRIED ONLY IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL, A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES THEN PERSISTING DURING THE WEEKEND.
MODEL DISCREPANCIES GROW DURING THE PERIOD, PARTICULARLY
CONCERNING TIMING/PLACEMENT OF SURFACE SYSTEMS. HOWEVER,
GENERALIZED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED, WITHOUT
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN, AND THE POP
IS PLACED AT 20% OR LESS EACH PERIOD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
OUTSIDE OF SMOKE FROM ONGOING PRESCRIBED/WILDLAND FIRE IN THE
DANIEL BOONE NATIONAL FOREST. EVENTUAL VISIBILITY OBSTRUCTIONS DUE
TO SMOKE ARE POSSIBLE AT OR IN THE VICINITY OF THE SME AIRFIELD
AND AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED INTO THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, WINDS
WILL VEER TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT AT AROUND 5 MPH. SOME
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA, WITH
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT WELL INTO THE DAY, SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY, LLWS
OUT OF THE SOUTH, AT UP TO 35 KTS, IS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS A LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR KYZ044-050-051-058>060-068-069-079-080-083-084.
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR KYZ079-080-083>085-
116-117.
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF
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