994
FXUS63 KJKL 151446
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1046 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM, DRY, AND WINDY WEATHER WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
TODAY.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM UNTIL 8 PM TODAY FOR THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT ENVIRONMENTAL WIND GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 40 MPH IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
- A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWEEP
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BRINGING A RISK
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND BRIEF TORNADOES.
- TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET MONDAY MORNING, QUICKLY CHANGING RAIN
TO SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY BURSTS OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS COULD
CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE MONDAY EVENING
COMMUTE.
- WINTER TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY RETURN ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
THE DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. MIXING HAS INCREASED
WITH DIURNAL HEATING, PROVIDING BETTER SMOKE DISPERSION AROUND
YESTERDAY'S CONTROLLED BURNS. AS WINDS INCREASE, EXPECT
SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH ARE STILL
EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE POTTSVILLE ESCARPMENT. GIVEN
SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND CURRENT TRENDS, DEW POINTS WERE
LOWERED A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WERE RAISED A COUPLE DEGREES. FORECAST HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON NOW
RANGE FROM 75 TO 80F WHILE MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES RANGE FROM 25
TO 35 PERCENT. THE HOT-DRY-WINDY INDEX CONTINUES TO SHOW VALUES IN
THE 90TH TO 95TH PERCENTILE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WHICH IS
SUPPORTIVE OF ELEVATED WILDLAND FIRE DANGER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA. WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE INVERSION MIXES OUT.
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE ACROSS CONUS, BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW AND
LIGHTNING ARE OFF OCCURRING IN NW IOWA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG SURFACE LOW, EMBEDDED IN A LONG-WAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER IOWA, AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES SOMETIME MONDAY. HOWEVER, A STRONG
LLJ WITH 850-MB WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
STRENGTH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. WARM
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S
TODAY. WINDS WILL GUST STARTING BY MID-MORNING AFTER THE INVERSION
ERODES/MIXES OUT. BUFKIT MIXED LATER MOMENTUM TRANSFER CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT MIXING POTENTIAL OF 30-40 KTS. THE HREF AND LREF ENSEMBLES
HAVE SHOWN THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES OF SEEING WIND GUSTS OVER 35
MPH WOULD BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF THE POTTSVILLE ESCARPMENT THROUGH 8 PM EDT
TODAY. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOWARDS MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING, THOUGH FORCING WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE A ORGANIZED LINE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LINE, BETTER KNOWN AS A QLCS,
WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT, AND COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS A BREIF SPIN UP TORNADO. THE SPC HAS PLACED
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER, WHILE THE EASTERN HALF IS IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1/5). THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN THE SLIGHT AND MARGINAL RISK EXTENDS
JUST WEST OF MOREHEAD AND JACKSON, BEFORE GOING EAST OF
MIDDLESBORO. ON THESE OUTLOOKS A HATCHED AREA INDICATES A LEVEL 1
INTENSITY, FOR WIND AND TORNADO THREATS ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY, INDICATING AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED
SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS (74+ MPH) AND EF-2 TORNADOES. ALTHOUGH, THE
GREATEST ENVIRONMENT IN OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF KY-15
AND OVER THE EASTERN BLUEGRASS.
SUNDAY NIGHT, WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ONCE THE QLCS LINE MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 2-5
AM EDT MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SHARPLY. BY 9 AM EDT,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOW 30S TO NEAR 50 FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 50 FROM WEST TO EAST. NOTICE HOW THERE'S
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE FROM "SUNDAY NIGHTS" LOW TEMPERATURE AND MONDAYS
HIGH TEMPERATURE. THAT'S BECAUSE THEY WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN A FEW
HOURS OF EACH OTHER MONDAY MORNING AS THIS FRONT GOES THROUGH. RAIN-
SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING
MONDAY, AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. GENERAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF INCH ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF BELL AND HARLAN COUNTIES COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW. IT IS ALSO
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT GIVEN HOW WARM ITS BEEN, IT MAY TAKE A WHILE
TO ACCUMULATE ON GRASSY SURFACES. AS THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT
BOTH LIFT TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY, WINDS ARE
FORECASTED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH.
THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE AIR
TEMPERATURE, FALLING INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 20S BY LATE AFTERNOON,
AND TRENDING COLDER THERE AFTER.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION IN MOIST, BRISK UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE
ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE MIXED CONVECTIVE
LAYER EXTENDING THROUGH THE DGZ, SNOW SHOWERS TO VARYING EXTENT
WILL BE ONGOING, WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION IN THE FAVORED
TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST KY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THE NBM POP
LOOKED UNDERDONE AND THE POP WAS RAISED FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
ON MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT IT MAY NOT BE
HIGH ENOUGH. WITH TIME, THE FRONTAL INVERSION WILL BE LOWERING AND
THE MOISTURE WILL BE MIXING AWAY, AND BY TUESDAY MORNING NOTHING
MORE THAN FLURRIES SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE LAST OF THE FLURRIES THEN END ON TUESDAY AND
SKIES CLEAR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TO
START TUESDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD READILY FALL DURING THE
EVENING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVERNIGHT, WHILE WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS THE SURFACE HIGH
DEPARTS TO THE EAST. THE SHORTWAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD HALT THE FALL FOR
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE NIGHT. HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS THICKEN
WILL AFFECT HOW COLD IT GETS, WHICH LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES.
THE COLUMN WILL BE MOISTENING LARGELY FROM THE TOP DOWN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. EVENTUALLY, DRYING ALOFT WILL BEGIN ON
WEDNESDAY. WHAT IS UNCERTAIN IS WHETHER OR NOT VIRGA CAN MOISTEN
THE LOWER LEVELS ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE DRYING ALOFT OCCURS. AT THIS POINT, LOW POPS
FOR PRECIP (RAIN AND/OR SNOW) ARE BEING CARRIED ONLY IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL, A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES THEN PERSISTING DURING THE WEEKEND.
MODEL DISCREPANCIES GROW DURING THE PERIOD, PARTICULARLY
CONCERNING TIMING/PLACEMENT OF SURFACE SYSTEMS. HOWEVER,
GENERALIZED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED, WITHOUT
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN, AND THE POP
IS PLACED AT 20% OR LESS EACH PERIOD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH MOST TAF PERIOD. THERE MAY BE
SMOKE FROM A PREVIOUS PRESCRIBED/WILDLAND FIRE IN THE DANIEL BOONE
NATIONAL FOREST. PERIODIC VISIBILITY OBSTRUCTIONS DUE TO
SMOKE ARE POSSIBLE AT OR IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOZ AND SME
AIRFIELDS THROUGH 14Z. IN ADDITION TO THE OUTSIDE SMOKE CHANCE,
LLWS IS IN EACH TAF THROUGH 13-14Z THIS MORNING, WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. A LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT, LEADING TO THE
LLWS THREAT. AFTER 14Z SUNDAY MORNING CONDITIONS WILL BE GUSTY AT
ALL TERMINALS DUE TO THIS LOW- LEVEL JET. -SHRA START TO WORK INTO
THE AREA AROUND AND AFTER 06Z WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. -RA WILL
TAKE OVER AT MOST TAF SITES BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LOWER CEILINGS AND SOME VIS REDUCTIONS INTRO MVFR ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KTS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050-051-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083-084.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GINNICK
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