418
FXUS63 KJKL 151746
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
146 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM, DRY, AND WINDY WEATHER WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
TODAY.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM UNTIL 8 PM TODAY FOR THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT ENVIRONMENTAL WIND GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 40 MPH IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
- A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWEEP
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BRINGING A RISK
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND BRIEF TORNADOES.
- TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET MONDAY MORNING, QUICKLY CHANGING RAIN
TO SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY BURSTS OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS COULD
CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE MONDAY EVENING
COMMUTE.
- WINTER TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY RETURN ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
THE DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. MIXING HAS INCREASED
WITH DIURNAL HEATING, PROVIDING BETTER SMOKE DISPERSION AROUND
YESTERDAY'S CONTROLLED BURNS. AS WINDS INCREASE, EXPECT
SOUTHERLY GUSTS TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH ARE STILL EXPECTED
ALONG AND WEST OF THE POTTSVILLE ESCARPMENT. GIVEN SOUTHERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND CURRENT TRENDS, DEW POINTS WERE LOWERED A
COUPLE OF DEGREES AND AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED A
COUPLE DEGREES. FORECAST HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON NOW RANGE FROM 75
TO 80F WHILE MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT.
THE HOT-DRY-WINDY INDEX CONTINUES TO SHOW VALUES IN THE 90TH TO
95TH PERCENTILE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF
ELEVATED WILDLAND FIRE DANGER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA. WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE INVERSION MIXES OUT.
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE ACROSS CONUS, BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW AND
LIGHTNING ARE OFF OCCURRING IN NW IOWA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG SURFACE LOW, EMBEDDED IN A LONG-WAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER IOWA, AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES SOMETIME MONDAY. HOWEVER, A STRONG
LLJ WITH 850-MB WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
STRENGTH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. WARM
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S
TODAY. WINDS WILL GUST STARTING BY MID-MORNING AFTER THE INVERSION
ERODES/MIXES OUT. BUFKIT MIXED LATER MOMENTUM TRANSFER CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT MIXING POTENTIAL OF 30-40 KTS. THE HREF AND LREF ENSEMBLES
HAVE SHOWN THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES OF SEEING WIND GUSTS OVER 35
MPH WOULD BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF THE POTTSVILLE ESCARPMENT THROUGH 8 PM EDT
TODAY. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOWARDS MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING, THOUGH FORCING WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE A ORGANIZED LINE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LINE, BETTER KNOWN AS A QLCS,
WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT, AND COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS A BREIF SPIN UP TORNADO. THE SPC HAS PLACED
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER, WHILE THE EASTERN HALF IS IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1/5). THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN THE SLIGHT AND MARGINAL RISK EXTENDS
JUST WEST OF MOREHEAD AND JACKSON, BEFORE GOING EAST OF
MIDDLESBORO. ON THESE OUTLOOKS A HATCHED AREA INDICATES A LEVEL 1
INTENSITY, FOR WIND AND TORNADO THREATS ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY, INDICATING AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED
SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS (74+ MPH) AND EF-2 TORNADOES. ALTHOUGH, THE
GREATEST ENVIRONMENT IN OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF KY-15
AND OVER THE EASTERN BLUEGRASS.
SUNDAY NIGHT, WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ONCE THE QLCS LINE MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 2-5
AM EDT MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SHARPLY. BY 9 AM EDT,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOW 30S TO NEAR 50 FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 50 FROM WEST TO EAST. NOTICE HOW THERE'S
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE FROM "SUNDAY NIGHTS" LOW TEMPERATURE AND MONDAYS
HIGH TEMPERATURE. THAT'S BECAUSE THEY WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN A FEW
HOURS OF EACH OTHER MONDAY MORNING AS THIS FRONT GOES THROUGH. RAIN-
SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING
MONDAY, AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. GENERAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF INCH ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF BELL AND HARLAN COUNTIES COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW. IT IS ALSO
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT GIVEN HOW WARM ITS BEEN, IT MAY TAKE A WHILE
TO ACCUMULATE ON GRASSY SURFACES. AS THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT
BOTH LIFT TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY, WINDS ARE
FORECASTED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH.
THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE AIR
TEMPERATURE, FALLING INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 20S BY LATE AFTERNOON,
AND TRENDING COLDER THERE AFTER.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE COMMONWEALTH SITUATED BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. LINGERING SNOW FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD; HOWEVER, AS THE PARENT SURFACE LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY, ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER
OFF. ALONG WITH THESE ISOLATED POP CHANCES, BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, WINDS WILL
SLACKEN TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT A COLDER AIR MASS INTO THE AREA, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOW TO MID-30S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE PROGGED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER-TEENS TO LOWER-20S. WHILE
COLD, PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, LEADING TO
INCREASING POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. AS THIS CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH, AN
INITIAL RAIN-SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THERMAL PROFILES WARM
SUFFICIENTLY TO CAUSE A TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN. WITH THE CURRENT
STORM TRACK CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN AT 20 PERCENT OR LESS, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN CWA. A SECOND IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE
IS METEOROLOGICALLY SIMILAR TO THE WEDNESDAY CLIPPER BUT IS
DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH; CONSEQUENTLY, A 20 PERCENT POP OR LESS
EXISTS AGAIN MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
OTHERWISE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. A
THIRD PASSING SYSTEM MAY BRING ISOLATED POP CHANCES TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THOUGH CURRENT GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE BULK OF THIS SYSTEM NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
THE PERIOD IS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE ARRIVAL OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE ON
TUESDAY. A SERIES OF PASSING CLIPPERS WILL BRING ISOLATED RAIN OR
SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY. A WARMING
TREND WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH MOST TAF PERIOD. THERE MAY BE
SMOKE FROM A PREVIOUS PRESCRIBED/WILDLAND FIRE IN THE DANIEL BOONE
NATIONAL FOREST. PERIODIC VISIBILITY OBSTRUCTIONS DUE TO
SMOKE ARE POSSIBLE AT OR IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOZ AND SME
AIRFIELDS THROUGH 14Z. IN ADDITION TO THE OUTSIDE SMOKE CHANCE,
LLWS IS IN EACH TAF THROUGH 13-14Z THIS MORNING, WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. A LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT, LEADING TO THE
LLWS THREAT. AFTER 14Z SUNDAY MORNING CONDITIONS WILL BE GUSTY AT
ALL TERMINALS DUE TO THIS LOW- LEVEL JET. -SHRA START TO WORK INTO
THE AREA AROUND AND AFTER 06Z WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. -RA WILL
TAKE OVER AT MOST TAF SITES BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LOWER CEILINGS AND SOME VIS REDUCTIONS INTRO MVFR ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KTS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR KYZ044-050-051-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083-084.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
KYZ052-085>088-104-106>120.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
KYZ088-118.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GINNICK
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