239
FXUS63 KJKL 161222
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
822 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL CRASH TODAY, TURNING RAIN TO SNOW. SUDDEN,
HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD CAUSE
LOCALIZED HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND RAPID DROPS IN
VISIBILITY.
- WINTER-LIKE COLD LASTS ONLY BRIEFLY, WITH A WARMING TREND
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 822 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
AN UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.
LONG TERM
(AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 822 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS. LAST NIGHT'S MODEL RUNS
STARTED TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP FOR OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS
THIS REGIME SETS UP. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS AREA WIDE. INITIAL
TEMPS COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW, BUT WARMING WOULD PROBABLY
CAUSE IT TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN SHOULD PRECIP OCCUR. THIS
EXITS EAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT. MILDER AIR THEN PERSISTS, WITH NO
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. MODELS
DO HAVE A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON THURSDAY, AND THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THAT. MODELS DISAGREE ON WHEN THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ACTUALLY OCCURS, BUT POSSIBLY DURING THE
WEEKEND. THIS COULD RESULT IN PRECIP POTENTIAL NEEDING TO BE
EXPANDED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
A COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SQUALL LINE IS CURRENTLY ENTERING
EASTERN KENTUCKY. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT MARCHES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. A RAPID DETERIORATION IN CEILINGS WILL OCCUR
WITH AND BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE AS A LIGHTER STRATIFORM RAIN
LINGERS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY MORNING, SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP TOWARD MIDDAY
WITH ORGANIZED SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. POST-
FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED WEST SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ON MONDAY. ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
KYZ088-118.
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GREIF/GINNICK
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