176
FXUS63 KJKL 161235
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
835 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL CRASH TODAY, TURNING RAIN TO SNOW. SUDDEN,
HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD CAUSE
LOCALIZED HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND RAPID DROPS IN
VISIBILITY.
- WINTER-LIKE COLD LASTS ONLY BRIEFLY, WITH A WARMING TREND
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 822 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
AN UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.
LONG TERM
(AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 822 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS. LAST NIGHT'S MODEL RUNS
STARTED TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP FOR OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS
THIS REGIME SETS UP. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS AREA WIDE. INITIAL
TEMPS COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW, BUT WARMING WOULD PROBABLY
CAUSE IT TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN SHOULD PRECIP OCCUR. THIS
EXITS EAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT. MILDER AIR THEN PERSISTS, WITH NO
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. MODELS
DO HAVE A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON THURSDAY, AND THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THAT. MODELS DISAGREE ON WHEN THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ACTUALLY OCCURS, BUT POSSIBLY DURING THE
WEEKEND. THIS COULD RESULT IN PRECIP POTENTIAL NEEDING TO BE
EXPANDED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 836 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING, AFTER
WHICH SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP TOWARD MIDDAY WITH ORGANIZED SNOW SQUALLS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED
WEST SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 25-30 KTS. ONLY
SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHEWST BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z. A MIX OF IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING SOME. VISIBILITIES WILL BE UP AND DOWN
THROUGH THE DAY LIKELY BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. IF ONE WERE UNDERNEATH
A SNOW SQUALL, VISIBILITY MAY DROP UNDER A MILE.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
KYZ088-118.
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GREIF/GINNICK
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