278
FXUS63 KJKL 161805
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
205 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL CRASH TODAY, TURNING RAIN TO SNOW. HEAVY SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS AND RAPID DROPS IN VISIBILITY.
- WINTER-LIKE COLD LASTS ONLY BRIEFLY, WITH A WARMING TREND
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
A MESOSCALE SNOW BAND HAS DEVELOPED NORTHWARD OUT OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO AT TIMES
HEAVY SNOW. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW BAND SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST OF LAKE CUMBERLAND BY AROUND 3 PM AND EXIT THROUGH PIKE
COUNTY THROUGH 6 PM. THE MORNING DATA SUITE SUPPORTS A WIDESPREAD
0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH 1
TO 3 INCH TOTALS FOR THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE KY-VA BORDER.
CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE MORE COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY WHERE THE SNOW MAY PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES AND CAUSE IMPACTS FOR THE
EVENING COMMUTE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 946 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
DRASTIC CHANGES ARE UNDERWAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING AS
THE POWERFUL COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST NIGHT'S SQUALL LINE
DEPARTS INTO WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA. LOOKING ALOFT, THAT FRONT
PRECEDES A HIGH-AMPLITUDE 500 HPA PARENT TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION WHILE THE WELL-ADVERTISED
~ 984 MB SURFACE LOW TREKS ACROSS LAKE HURON. STRONG CAA IS UNDERWAY
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY ON WSW FLOW AS TEMPERATURES PRESENTLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S EAST OF US-23 TO THE MID 30S WEST OF I-75
AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS AND MOST AREAS ARE SEEING SOME DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN. THE MUCH COOLER AIR IS FLOODING IN ON A STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO ~30 MPH --
UPSTREAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
IOWA, NEBRASKA, MINNESOTA, AND THE DAKOTAS.
AFTER YESTERDAYS WIDESPREAD WARMTH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S,
THIS PATTERN WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ABRUPT RETURN TO WINTER THIS
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE 500 HPA TROUGH AXIS, THERE IS AN INTENSE
VORT LOBE NOTED FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AS THE PARENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT, THAT VORT LOBE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, ATTENDED BY A 2 PVU SURFACE
DIPPING TO NEAR 500 HPA, LEAVING EASTERN KENTUCKY ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF THE 250 HPA JET. WHILE SOME MODELS CAPTURED THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO FORM ALONG THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE, MORE MEMBERS ARE NOW
SHOWING THIS POTENTIAL. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOW EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF PRECIPITATION SHIELD DEVELOPING OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AROUND MIDDAY AND QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO
A PERIOD OF STRATIFORM SNOWFALL FOR MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF THE
POTTSVILLE ESCARPMENT AND PERHAPS MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATES GIVEN GOOD LIFT AND SATURATION IN A DEEP DGZ
BETWEEN 700 TO 500 HPA, AS PER THE RAP13. THIS STEADIER STRATIFORM
SNOW WILL OCCUR ATOP ONGOING MODERATE CAA AND A DEEPENING MOIST
MIXED LAYER THAT SHOULD BE INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF OROGRAPHICALLY-
ENHANCED CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. SOME QUESTION LINGERS AS TO HOW
QUICKLY DRIER AIR IS ABLE TO WORK INTO THE AREA --THE RAP13 /HRRR
SHOWS SURFACE TO 700 HPA LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO NEAR MOIST
ADIABATIC WITH SBCAPE VALUES NEAR OR EXCEEDING 100 J/KG. OTHER
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE NAM, NAMNEST, AND ECMWF IS MUCH QUICKER TO
BRING IN DRY AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION,
LEAVING US WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF FLURRIES.
THE MORE UNSTABLE SOLUTIONS FROM THE RAP AND HRRR WOULD RESULT IN
A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SNOW SQUALLS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WHILE AIR TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE 20S
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND INTO THE TEENS ABOVE 2,500 FEET. VERY WARM
GROUND TEMPERATURES STARTING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S THIS MORNING
WILL BE A STRONGLY MITIGATING FACTOR FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION.
HOWEVER, SNOWFALL RATES COULD BECOME INTENSE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
GROUND HEAT (ESPECIALLY IN ANY SQUALLS) AND AT LEAST TEMPORARILY
LEAVE SLIPPERY, SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAYS (EVEN AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS) IN ADDITION TO SUDDEN, DRASTIC REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY. WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE MIXED LAYER NEAR 30 TO 40
KNOTS, THE STRONGEST SQUALLS COULD ALSO GENERATE WIND GUSTS
NEARING SIMILAR STRENGTH. ADDITIONALLY, ELS NEAR OR EVEN COLDER
THAN -20C IN THE MORE UNSTABLE SCENARIOS COULD SUPPORT INSTANCES
OF THUNDERSNOW IN THE MOST INTENSE SQUALLS. SNOW SHOWERS AND THE
OVERALL RISK FOR SNOW SQUALLS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS GRADUALLY DRIES OUT.
CONFIDENCE IN HAZARDOUS ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAYS REMAINS
GREATEST OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE KY/VA BORDER WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL MOST QUICKLY, THE STRATIFORM SNOWFALL WILL
PERSIST THE LONGEST, AND THE GREATEST OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWER
ENHANCEMENT WILL BE PRESENT. THUS, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
CONTINUES IN HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES FROM 12 PM TODAY TO 8 AM
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS MAY NEED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SLOWER TO
ERODE AND HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER OR SQUALL ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE
NUMEROUS OR LOCALLY PERSISTENT.
LONG TERM
(AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 822 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS. LAST NIGHT'S MODEL RUNS
STARTED TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP FOR OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS
THIS REGIME SETS UP. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS AREA WIDE. INITIAL
TEMPS COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW, BUT WARMING WOULD PROBABLY
CAUSE IT TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN SHOULD PRECIP OCCUR. THIS
EXITS EAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT. MILDER AIR THEN PERSISTS, WITH NO
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. MODELS
DO HAVE A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON THURSDAY, AND THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THAT. MODELS DISAGREE ON WHEN THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ACTUALLY OCCURS, BUT POSSIBLY DURING THE
WEEKEND. THIS COULD RESULT IN PRECIP POTENTIAL NEEDING TO BE
EXPANDED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
IS SPREADING A PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW ACROSS ALL OF THE AIRFIELDS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS LIKELY. THE STEADY
SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
19Z AND 22Z. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THEREAFTER,
THOUGH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALLS COULD BRING
BRIEF IFR OR WORSE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE WESTERLY AT 7 TO 17 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KTS THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY SOME SLACKENING TONIGHT.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ088-118.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ120.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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