710
FXUS63 KJKL 162056
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
456 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW SHOWERS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE INTENSE, WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT, CAUSING SUDDEN DROPS IN VISIBILITY AND SLUSHY
ROADS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY.
- HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 30S TOMORROW WITH LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS, FOLLOWED BY A COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S
TUESDAY NIGHT.
- A WEAK SYSTEM BRINGS A LIGHT WINTRY MIX EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE
CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN.
- THE WINTER CHILL WONT LAST LONG. HIGHS WILL SOAR BACK INTO THE
70S BY THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
AFTER TEMPERATURES TOPPED 75F ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
YESTERDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING 40 TO 45F COOLER 24 HOURS
LATER, GENERALLY NOT FAR FROM THE FREEZING MARK. A MESOSCALE SNOW
BAND WITH MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOWFALL IS CURRENTLY MARCHING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, LEAVING BEHIND A
BLANKET OF MID-MARCH SNOW, ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED
SURFACES. THE BAND IS OCCURRING WITH A ZONE OF 700 TO 500 HPA
FRONTOGENESIS, NEGATIVE EPV, AND STRONG 300 HPA RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION DIVERGENCE JUST AHEAD OF AN IMPRESSIVE VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED
WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTING 500 HPA TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
THE ONGOING MESOSCALE SNOW BAND, PRESENTLY WITH A BACK EDGE
EXTENDING FROM MOREHEAD TO BOONEVILLE TO BARBOURVILLE AROUND
2015Z, WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EASTWARD THIS EVENING AS THE VORT
LOBE AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SHIFT TO THE EAST. IN ITS WAKE,
ROBUST CAA WILL CONTINUE ON WESTERLY WINDS, LEADING TO FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD FAVOR OROGRAPHICALLY-ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SQUALLS AT TIMES.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT MODEL DISCREPANCIES LINGER AS TO HOW
QUICKLY DRIER AIR IS ABLE TO WORK INTO THE AREA AND CUT OFF THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. THE RAP13 SHOWS SURFACE TO 700
HPA LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC WITH SBCAPE
VALUES OF SEVERAL DOZEN UP TO 100 J/KG LINGERING DEEP INTO THE
NIGHT UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE SURFACE TROUGH, AND THEN
BEING REJUVENATED TO SOME DEGREE ON TUESDAY WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
OTHER GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE NAM, NAMNEST, AND ECMWF IS MUCH QUICKER
TO BRING IN DRY AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING SNOW BAND, LEAVING US
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. WARM
GROUND TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50F AT 2 INCHES WILL TEND
TO FIGHT BACK AGAINST ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER, SNOWFALL RATES COULD
BECOME INTENSE ENOUGH AT TIMES TO OVERCOME GROUND HEAT (ESPECIALLY
IN THE DEPARTING MESOSCALE BAND AND IN ANY SNOW SQUALLS OVERNIGHT)
AND AT LEAST TEMPORARILY LEAVE SLIPPERY, SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ON
ROADWAYS (EVEN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS) IN ADDITION TO SUDDEN, DRASTIC
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE MIXED LAYER
NEAR 30 TO 40 KNOTS, THE STRONGEST SQUALLS COULD ALSO GENERATE
WIND GUSTS NEARING SIMILAR STRENGTH. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATION COUNTIES OF SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WHERE THERE IS THE
GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN THE MESOSCALE BANDED SNOWFALL PERSISTING
THE LONGEST THIS EVENING AND THE GREATEST OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWER
ENHANCEMENT. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS MAY
NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS
BECOME NUMEROUS OR LOCALLY PERSISTENT.
ASIDE FROM THE CONTINUED THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
FEW SQUALLS ON TUESDAY, IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONLY REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. A LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOLLOWS TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE A WEAK DISTURBANCE BRINGS
THE THREAT OF A LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOWFALL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY NIGHTS LOWS WILL REMAIN COLD, RANGING FROM THE MID-TEENS
TO MID 20S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THAT SAID, A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIPITATION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MORE
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. THE OVERALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE QUITE LIGHT WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THEN WE ARE LOOKING AT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT INTO THE LOWER 70S IN MOST SPOTS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE SUGGESTING
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY, BUT THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IF A
BOUNDARY CAN IN FACT PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER THIS, SOME
OF THE DATA SUGGESTS A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE OHIO
VALLEY BY NEXT WEEK, BUT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERNS ARE QUITE DIVERGENT
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
IS SPREADING A PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW ACROSS ALL OF THE AIRFIELDS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS LIKELY. THE STEADY
SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
19Z AND 22Z. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THEREAFTER,
THOUGH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALLS COULD BRING
BRIEF IFR OR WORSE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE WESTERLY AT 7 TO 17 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KTS THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY SOME SLACKENING TONIGHT.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ087-110-
113-115-117-119.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ088-118-
120.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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