737
FXUS63 KJKL 171018
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
618 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE INTENSE,
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY CAUSE SUDDEN DROPS
IN VISIBILITY, SLICK SPOTS OR INSTANCES OF BLACK ICE ON ROADWAYS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY.
- HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 30S TOMORROW WITH LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS, FOLLOWED BY A COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S
TUESDAY NIGHT.
- A WEAK SYSTEM BRINGS A LIGHT WINTRY MIX EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE
CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN.
- THE WINTER CHILL WONT LAST LONG. HIGHS WILL SOAR BACK INTO THE
70S BY THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
AT 09Z THIS MORNING, LIGHT FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING TROUGH
AND UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT, A SHORT WAVE OR LOB OF ENERGY DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS MORNING. THESE FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWER MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF TODAY BEFORE THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AS THIS SHORTWAVE DIGS
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, IT BRINGS MODERATE ABV, WITH A NEAR
SATURATED DGZ AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE COLUMN, TO
THE SURFACE. THAT IS WHY WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE FLURRIES AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL THE BETTER FORCING (ABV) MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH HIGHER SNOW RATIOS AROUND OR NORTH OF 20-
1, FLUFFY SNOW COULD ADD ANOTHER HALF INCH IN PLACES THROUGH THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK, BUT BE A
COUPLE DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF IT.
TUESDAY EVENING, CLOUDS BEGIN TO WORK BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST, AS ANOTHER QUICK HITTING SYSTEM IS SET TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW 20S, THOUGH IF ENOUGH
CLOUD COVER CLEARS OUT TOWARDS SUNSET, DECOUPLED VALLEYS COULD DROP
INTO THE TEENS. THE NBM WASN'T HANDLING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL TO
WELL FOR WEDNESDAY. A BLEND OF DIFFERENT MODELS WERE USED TO PUT
SCATTERED POPS IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FURTHER EAST BY
MID-WEEK.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THAT SAID, A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIPITATION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MORE
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. THE OVERALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE QUITE LIGHT WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THEN WE ARE LOOKING AT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT INTO THE LOWER 70S IN MOST SPOTS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE SUGGESTING
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY, BUT THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IF A
BOUNDARY CAN IN FACT PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER THIS, SOME
OF THE DATA SUGGESTS A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE OHIO
VALLEY BY NEXT WEEK, BUT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERNS ARE QUITE DIVERGENT
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
A COMBINATION OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD, WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. THESE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY INTO MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 15KTS. WINDS INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS 15-20 KTS. BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 00Z.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ088-
118-120.
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GINNICK
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