796
FXUS63 KJKL 171128
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
728 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE INTENSE,
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY CAUSE SUDDEN DROPS
IN VISIBILITY, SLICK SPOTS OR INSTANCES OF BLACK ICE ON ROADWAYS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY UNTIL 8 AM.
- A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM COULD BRING A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN
TO MUCH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
- THE WINTER CHILL WONT LAST LONG. HIGHS WILL SOAR BACK INTO THE
70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
AT 09Z THIS MORNING, LIGHT FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING TROUGH
AND UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT, A SHORT WAVE OR LOB OF ENERGY DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS MORNING. THESE FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWER MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF TODAY BEFORE THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AS THIS SHORTWAVE DIGS
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, IT BRINGS MODERATE VORTICITY, WITH
A NEAR SATURATED DGZ AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
COLUMN, TO THE SURFACE. THAT IS WHY WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE FLURRIES
AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL THE BETTER FORCING (ABSOLUTE
VORTICITY) MOVES OUT OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
HIGHER SNOW RATIOS AROUND OR NORTH OF 20- 1, FLUFFY SNOW COULD ADD
ANOTHER HALF INCH IN PLACES THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK, BUT BE A COUPLE DEGREES ON EITHER
SIDE OF IT.
TUESDAY EVENING, CLOUDS BEGIN TO WORK BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST, AS ANOTHER QUICK HITTING SYSTEM IS SET TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW 20S, THOUGH IF ENOUGH
CLOUD COVER CLEARS OUT TOWARDS SUNSET, DECOUPLED VALLEYS COULD DROP
INTO THE TEENS. THE NBM WASN'T HANDLING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL TO
WELL FOR WEDNESDAY. A BLEND OF DIFFERENT MODELS WERE USED TO PUT
SCATTERED POPS IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FURTHER EAST BY
MID-WEEK.
LONG TERM
(AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 718 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL RIDE THROUGH A LARGER SCALE
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AS IT DEAMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. ONE OF THESE BRINGS US A SMALL POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN ON THURSDAY, ANOTHER ONE ON FRIDAY NIGHT, AND A STRONGER
WAVE WITH A WELL DEFINED ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND PRECIP POTENTIAL, BUT ALL AGREE THAT MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BE LIMITED UNDER NW OR WNW FLOW ALOFT, AND THAT ANY PRECIP
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR MOST OF THE
TIME UP UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE LATE WEEKEND COLD FRONT, RESULTING
IN AN EXTENDED WARMING TREND, WITH 70S EVENTUALLY EXPECTED. A
SHARP COOL DOWN BACK TO NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED
BY MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 727 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
A COMBINATION OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD, WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. THESE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY INTO MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS 15-20 KTS, BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 00Z. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN -SHSN NEAR 12Z WEDNESDAY AT SITES KSME AND
KLOZ.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ088-
118-120.
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GINNICK
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