629
FXUS63 KJKL 171732
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
132 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
INTENSE, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING, WHICH MAY CAUSE
SUDDEN DROPS IN VISIBILITY, SLICK SPOTS OR INSTANCES OF BLACK
ICE ON ROADWAYS.
- A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM COULD BRING A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN
TO MUCH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
- THE WINTER CHILL WONT LAST LONG. HIGHS WILL SOAR BACK INTO THE
70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS ASIDE FROM UPDATING POP BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LOADING IN THE LATEST SURFACE OBS.
THIS MORNING'S SPS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 18Z AND WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED A FEW MORE HOURS TO COVER THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
WORKING ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 801 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND DATA. LIGHT
FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THESE SNOW SHOWERS MAY LEAD TO MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH, POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
SLICK SPOTS OR BLACK ICE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND OVERPASSES. A
STRONGER SNOW SHOWER MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
AT 09Z THIS MORNING, LIGHT FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING TROUGH
AND UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT, A SHORT WAVE OR LOB OF ENERGY DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS MORNING. THESE FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWER MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF TODAY BEFORE THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AS THIS SHORTWAVE DIGS
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, IT BRINGS MODERATE VORTICITY, WITH
A NEAR SATURATED DGZ AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
COLUMN, TO THE SURFACE. THAT IS WHY WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE FLURRIES
AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL THE BETTER FORCING (ABSOLUTE
VORTICITY) MOVES OUT OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
HIGHER SNOW RATIOS AROUND OR NORTH OF 20- 1, FLUFFY SNOW COULD ADD
ANOTHER HALF INCH IN PLACES THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK, BUT BE A COUPLE DEGREES ON EITHER
SIDE OF IT.
TUESDAY EVENING, CLOUDS BEGIN TO WORK BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST, AS ANOTHER QUICK HITTING SYSTEM IS SET TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW 20S, THOUGH IF ENOUGH
CLOUD COVER CLEARS OUT TOWARDS SUNSET, DECOUPLED VALLEYS COULD DROP
INTO THE TEENS. THE NBM WASN'T HANDLING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL TO
WELL FOR WEDNESDAY. A BLEND OF DIFFERENT MODELS WERE USED TO PUT
SCATTERED POPS IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FURTHER EAST BY
MID-WEEK.
LONG TERM
(AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 718 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL RIDE THROUGH A LARGER SCALE
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AS IT DEAMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. ONE OF THESE BRINGS US A SMALL POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN ON THURSDAY, ANOTHER ONE ON FRIDAY NIGHT, AND A STRONGER
WAVE WITH A WELL DEFINED ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND PRECIP POTENTIAL, BUT ALL AGREE THAT MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BE LIMITED UNDER NW OR WNW FLOW ALOFT, AND THAT ANY PRECIP
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR MOST OF THE
TIME UP UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE LATE WEEKEND COLD FRONT, RESULTING
IN AN EXTENDED WARMING TREND, WITH 70S EVENTUALLY EXPECTED. A
SHARP COOL DOWN BACK TO NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED
BY MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
A COMBINATION OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES WITH THIS ISSUANCE. SNOW SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS THE CWA AT THE MOMENT BUT THEY'RE DECREASING IN COVERAGE
WITH KSME, KLOZ, KSYM AND KIOB ALREADY STARTING TO BE FREE OF
SNOW IMPACTS. TERMINALS KJKL AND KSJS WILL STILL SEE SNOW IMPACTS
THROUGH 21Z BEFORE THE SHOWERS EXIT THE AREA. ALONG WITH
DECREASING SNOW SHOWERS, CIGS WILL START TO IMPROVE TO VFR AND
WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. BY 23Z, ALL
SITES ARE FORECAST TO BE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER, A CLIPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA WILL BRING INCREASED WINDS AND LOW-END
VFR CIGS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...VORST
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...VORST
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