928
FXUS63 KJKL 171930
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
330 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
INTENSE, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. SOME HEAVIER
SHOWERS MAY CAUSE SUDDEN DROPS IN VISIBILITY OR SLICK SPOTS.
- A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM COULD BRING A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN
TO MUCH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
- THE WINTER CHILL WONT LAST LONG. HIGHS WILL SOAR BACK INTO THE
70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
AS OF THE 1500Z SURFACE ANALYSIS, THE REGION REMAINS SITUATED
BETWEEN TWO PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FEATURES. TO THE NORTHEAST, A 964 MB
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN QUEBEC INTO
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR IS MAINTAINING A COLD, CYCLONIC FLOW.
SUFFICIENT WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WITHIN THIS AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. TO THE SOUTH, A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION. A THIRD FEATURE, A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM, IS CURRENTLY DRAPED
FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. LOCALLY,
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE CWA, THOUGH A CLEARING TREND
IS NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS
UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. BY
TONIGHT, LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A
CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WHICH WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID-20S. HOWEVER, AS THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES
THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER-40S. WHILE THE PRIMARY DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM REMAIN
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH, CAMS AND OTHER SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST
POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA FROM MID-
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING ALIGNS WITH THE
DIURNAL WARMING CURVE, LIKELY RESULTING IN A BRIEF ONSET OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE A QUICK TRANSITION TO RAIN.
ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION, WINDS WILL DIMINISH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD,
THOUGH LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP INSULATE
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, KEEPING LOWS IN THE MID-30S.
IN SUMMARY, THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS GIVING WAY
TO TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE. A PASSING CLIPPER WILL BRING RENEWED
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
SHORT TERM, BUT A WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE SUBSEQUENT
PERIODS.
LONG TERM
(AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 718 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL RIDE THROUGH A LARGER SCALE
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AS IT DEAMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. ONE OF THESE BRINGS US A SMALL POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN ON THURSDAY, ANOTHER ONE ON FRIDAY NIGHT, AND A STRONGER
WAVE WITH A WELL DEFINED ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND PRECIP POTENTIAL, BUT ALL AGREE THAT MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BE LIMITED UNDER NW OR WNW FLOW ALOFT, AND THAT ANY PRECIP
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR MOST OF THE
TIME UP UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE LATE WEEKEND COLD FRONT, RESULTING
IN AN EXTENDED WARMING TREND, WITH 70S EVENTUALLY EXPECTED. A
SHARP COOL DOWN BACK TO NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED
BY MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
A COMBINATION OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES WITH THIS ISSUANCE. SNOW SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS THE CWA AT THE MOMENT BUT THEY'RE DECREASING IN COVERAGE
WITH KSME, KLOZ, KSYM AND KIOB ALREADY STARTING TO BE FREE OF
SNOW IMPACTS. TERMINALS KJKL AND KSJS WILL STILL SEE SNOW IMPACTS
THROUGH 21Z BEFORE THE SHOWERS EXIT THE AREA. ALONG WITH
DECREASING SNOW SHOWERS, CIGS WILL START TO IMPROVE TO VFR AND
WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. BY 23Z, ALL
SITES ARE FORECAST TO BE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER, A CLIPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA WILL BRING INCREASED WINDS AND LOW-END
VFR CIGS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...VORST
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