749
FXUS63 KJKL 180355 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1155 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM COULD BRING A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN
TO MUCH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
- THE WINTER CHILL WILL NOT LAST LONG. HIGHS WILL SOAR BACK INTO
THE 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD GRIDS. DID
ALSO FINE TUNE THE POPS THROUGH DAWN PER THE LATEST CAMS SOLUTION.
THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE SAFS AND ZONES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY EXERTING ITS
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS IS WORKING TO
SETTLE THE WINDS AND CLEAR OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS WHILE ALSO ENDING
THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST.
CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S NORTH
TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE FAR SOUTH. MEANWHILE, AMID DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 5 MPH, DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHWEST TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS IN THE
FAR NORTHEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO ADD IN THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD GRIDS WHILE ALSO TAKING OUT
THE SNOW SHOWERS, FLURRIES, AND MINIMAL POPS. THESE ADJUSTMENTS
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING
OF THE HWO, SAFS, AND ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
AS OF THE 1500Z SURFACE ANALYSIS, THE REGION REMAINS SITUATED
BETWEEN TWO PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FEATURES. TO THE NORTHEAST, A 964 MB
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN QUEBEC INTO
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR IS MAINTAINING A COLD, CYCLONIC FLOW.
SUFFICIENT WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WITHIN THIS AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. TO THE SOUTH, A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION. A THIRD FEATURE, A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM, IS CURRENTLY DRAPED
FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. LOCALLY,
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE CWA, THOUGH A CLEARING TREND
IS NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS
UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. BY
TONIGHT, LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A
CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WHICH WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID-20S. HOWEVER, AS THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES
THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER-40S. WHILE THE PRIMARY DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM REMAIN
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH, CAMS AND OTHER SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST
POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA FROM MID-
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING ALIGNS WITH THE
DIURNAL WARMING CURVE, LIKELY RESULTING IN A BRIEF ONSET OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE A QUICK TRANSITION TO RAIN.
ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION, WINDS WILL DIMINISH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD,
THOUGH LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP INSULATE
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, KEEPING LOWS IN THE MID-30S.
IN SUMMARY, THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS GIVING WAY
TO TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE. A PASSING CLIPPER WILL BRING RENEWED
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
SHORT TERM, BUT A WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE SUBSEQUENT
PERIODS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
THE LONG TERM PATTERN WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START OUT POSITIONED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE A
DEEP TROUGH IS ALIGNED ACROSS THE EAST. THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
SLIDE EAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY,
WHILE THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. THIS WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR INCREASING HEIGHT RISES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, BUT ALSO MAINTAIN
A NORTHWEST TO WEST NORTHWEST FLOW. CONSEQUENTLY, PASSING SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SOME PRECIPITATION
AFFECTING THE AREA AT TIMES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, WITH SOME RAIN
SHOWERS THREATENING FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AS
A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
SETUP ALOFT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH GENERALLY DRIER WEATHER
TAKING HOLD INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TAP.
HIGHS WILL MODERATE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY, TO
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR HIGHS BY SUNDAY. LOWS WILL MODIFY
FROM THE 40S TO THE 50S. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE PASSING
COLD FRONT. SMALL RAIN CHANCES COULD LINGER AS LATE AS TUESDAY,
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING
THIS FAR OUT. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
BUT THESE READINGS WILL STILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ACROSS ALL JKL TAF SITES WITH THIS
ISSUANCE. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ENDED THROUGHOUT THE AREA AND AS A
RESULT ANY LINGERING LOW VFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO HIGH VFR WHILE
THE WINDS DROP TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. HOWEVER, A CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE AREA WILL BRING INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW-
END VFR TO MVFR CIGS TOWARDS MIDDAY TUESDAY LASTING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN - BUT MOST LOCATIONS
STAY DRY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...VORST/GREIF
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