663
FXUS63 KJKL 180834
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
434 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM COULD BRING A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN
TO MUCH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
- THE WINTER CHILL WILL NOT LAST LONG. HIGHS WILL SOAR BACK INTO
THE 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
A LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH ITS AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IS DEPARTING TO
THE EAST. THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION WHICH WILL LAST AT LEAST LAST INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. A
COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH, WITH ONE REACHING US FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND ANOTHER
ON THURSDAY, COINCIDING WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. ALL FACTORS COMBINED WILL, AT A MINIMUM, BRING TWO PERIODS OF
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS, WITH A MIN OF SKY COVER SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN
FOR TONIGHT. GULF MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE AND NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, THE VARIOUS SUPPORT
FACTORS STILL MAY BE ABLE SQUEEZE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP
AMOUNTS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTENING FROM THE TOP
DOWN BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY, SUGGESTING VIRGA WILL BE FALLING
INTO DRIER AIR BELOW. IT WILL BE A QUESTION OF WHETHER IT CAN
MOISTEN THE DRY LOWER LEVELS ENOUGH TO GENERATE PRECIP BEFORE THE
UPPER LEVELS BEGIN DRYING AS SUPPORT WANES. DESPITE MODELS LOOKING
LARGELY DRY FOR TODAY, HAVE OPTED TO STILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WITH THE SUPPORT OF BOTH NAM MOS AND GFS MOS. THE EXPECTED
SURFACE T/TD COMBINATIONS LOOK MARGINAL FOR RAIN VS. SNOW, AT
LEAST INITIALLY AT THE POSSIBLE ONSET TODAY, WITH RAIN BEING MORE
LIKELY (CONDITIONALLY) LATER. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PERSISTING,
IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIP ON THURSDAY TO OCCUR AS
RAIN.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
AN UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER CEILINGS
WILL DEVELOP AREA WIDE AND LOWER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH LOW
END VFR ANTICIPATED. SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW MAY MAKE ITS
WAY EAST ACROSS THE JKL FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WOULD
NOT RULE OUT SOME HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS DURING THIS TIME, BUT THE
PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT. CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK UP AND EXIT EAST DURING THE EVENING.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...HAL
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