882
FXUS63 KJKL 181207
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
807 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM COULD BRING A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN
TO MUCH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
- THE WINTER CHILL WILL NOT LAST LONG. HIGHS WILL SOAR BACK INTO
THE 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
- A LATE WEEKEND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 807 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
HAVE BLENDED EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST WITHOUT ANY
SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
A LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH ITS AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IS DEPARTING TO
THE EAST. THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION WHICH WILL LAST AT LEAST LAST INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. A
COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH, WITH ONE REACHING US FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND ANOTHER
ON THURSDAY, COINCIDING WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. ALL FACTORS COMBINED WILL, AT A MINIMUM, BRING TWO PERIODS OF
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS, WITH A MIN OF SKY COVER SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN
FOR TONIGHT. GULF MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE AND NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, THE VARIOUS SUPPORT
FACTORS STILL MAY BE ABLE SQUEEZE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP
AMOUNTS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTENING FROM THE TOP
DOWN BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY, SUGGESTING VIRGA WILL BE FALLING
INTO DRIER AIR BELOW. IT WILL BE A QUESTION OF WHETHER IT CAN
MOISTEN THE DRY LOWER LEVELS ENOUGH TO GENERATE PRECIP BEFORE THE
UPPER LEVELS BEGIN DRYING AS SUPPORT WANES. DESPITE MODELS LOOKING
LARGELY DRY FOR TODAY, HAVE OPTED TO STILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WITH THE SUPPORT OF BOTH NAM MOS AND GFS MOS. THE EXPECTED
SURFACE T/TD COMBINATIONS LOOK MARGINAL FOR RAIN VS. SNOW, AT
LEAST INITIALLY AT THE POSSIBLE ONSET TODAY, WITH RAIN BEING MORE
LIKELY (CONDITIONALLY) LATER. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PERSISTING,
IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIP ON THURSDAY TO OCCUR AS
RAIN.
LONG TERM
(AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 611 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES LOOKS
TO REMAIN AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. EASTERN
KENTUCKY WILL BE POSITIONED IN BETWEEN AN ATLANTIC COAST TROUGH AND
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE RESULTANT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS FOR A FEW MORE DAYS BEFORE THESE
FEATURES FLATTEN OUT LATER IN THE WEEKEND. AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS,
MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS FAVOR A
WARMING TREND. A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES PASSING
TO THE NORTH WILL YIELD LOW-END RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS BEFORE A BETTER-DEFINED SYSTEM BRINGS GREATER RAIN CHANCES TO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THAT SYSTEM,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES AS A QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW REGIME SETS UP ALOFT. THIS COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT COMPOUNDING FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE IN
THE PERIOD MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT SPECIFIC DETAILS.
THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR SOME POTENTIALLY STRONGER CONVECTION WITH THAT
SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM. THE CAPE CONTOURS IN EFI/SOT DATA HAVE
STEADILY INCREASED WITH EACH PASSING MODEL RUN, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THAT GUIDANCE'S PARENT MODEL ALIGNS THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH DIURNAL HEATING MORE EFFECTIVELY. THE AFOREMENTIONED
WARMING TREND SHOULD CULMINATE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND THIS CORRESPONDS WITH MEAN MUCAPE
VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THAT FRONT IN THE 00Z ENS
DATA. THAT SET OF GUIDANCE ALSO RESOLVES 40-50 KNOTS OF MEAN BULK
SHEAR PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY'S WEST/EAST ORIENTATION. OTHER PIECES
OF GUIDANCE ARE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND RESOLVE IT WITH A MORE
MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION. THIS WOULD RELEGATE THE RELATED
PRECIPITATION TO PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT, AS IT WOULD BE
A LESS FAVORABLE SHEAR ORIENTATION AND A LESS FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. WHILE THE OVERARCHING SYNOPTIC SET-UP
ALOFT DOES NOT NECESSARILY FAVOR WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, A MARGINAL GUSTY-TO-LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND EVENT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHER PIECES OF CONVECTIVE GUIDANCE (NCAR AI,
CSU ML, AND CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE) SUPPORT THIS NOTION, WITH 5-15%
SEVERE PROBABILITY CONTOURS DRAWN OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
SPC NOTES THAT A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK MAY EMERGE IN THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY IN THIS TIME FRAME, ALBEIT WITH TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR A
DAY 4 OR 5 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. LONG STORY SHORT, IF SUFFICIENT
FRONTAL FORCING OVERLAPS WITH THE BETTER DIURNAL INSTABILITY,
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES COULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED
WIND GUSTS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS TOWARDS OR AWAY FROM
THE MORE FAVORABLE SET-UP IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES, AS THESE
STORM CHANCES POISE THE GREATEST RISK FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 807 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER CEILINGS
WILL DEVELOP AREA WIDE AND LOWER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH LOW
END VFR ANTICIPATED. SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW MAY MAKE ITS
WAY EAST ACROSS THE JKL FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK UP AND EXIT EAST DURING THE EVENING.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...HAL
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