937
FXUS63 KJKL 182000
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM COULD BRING A FLURRY OR A SPRINKLE THE
AREA TODAY.
- THE WINTER CHILL WILL NOT LAST LONG. HIGHS WILL SOAR BACK INTO
THE 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
- A LATE WEEKEND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
AS OF THE 1500Z SURFACE ANALYSIS, YESTERDAYS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
HAS SHIFTED FROM THE GULF COAST NORTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTICS
CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER REMAINS, TIED
TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. ALONG WITH THE FRONT, WEAK RADAR RETURNS ARE DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA. DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AT
THE SURFACE, THESE SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY VIRGA; HOWEVER, A STRAY FLURRY
OR SPRINKLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHERE PRECIPITATION RATES ARE
SLIGHTLY HEAVIER.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AS THE COVERAGE OF VIRGA SHOWERS DECREASES.
BY TONIGHT, THOSE SHOWERS WILL HAVE DISSIPATED AND CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. WHILE POST-FRONTAL CLEARING AND CAA
WOULD TYPICALLY SUPPORT A NOTABLE RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT,
LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS RELATIVELY MILD,
FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. IN ADDITION TO THE WESTERLY FLOW,
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF A SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL HELP
INSULATE THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY, THE SECOND SYSTEM
WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION, CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAY INCREASE; HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY LIMITING
FACTOR IS A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR FORECAST FROM THE SURFACE UP TO
APPROXIMATELY 700 MB. VERY HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES WOULD BE
REQUIRED TO REACH THE GROUND THROUGH SUCH A DRY COLUMN. THEREFORE,
THE HIGHEST POP CHANCES WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW.
NONETHELESS, THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES, WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID-60S. BEHIND THE FRONT, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS, BUT LINGERING CLOUD COVER MAY AGAIN LIMIT THE
RIDGE-VALLEY SPLIT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOWS ARE CURRENTLY
PROGGED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A PAIR OF PASSING, MOISTURE-
STARVED CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THEM. THE REGION WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH A WARMING TREND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 611 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES LOOKS
TO REMAIN AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. EASTERN
KENTUCKY WILL BE POSITIONED IN BETWEEN AN ATLANTIC COAST TROUGH AND
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE RESULTANT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS FOR A FEW MORE DAYS BEFORE THESE
FEATURES FLATTEN OUT LATER IN THE WEEKEND. AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS,
MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS FAVOR A
WARMING TREND. A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES PASSING
TO THE NORTH WILL YIELD LOW-END RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS BEFORE A BETTER-DEFINED SYSTEM BRINGS GREATER RAIN CHANCES TO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THAT SYSTEM,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES AS A QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW REGIME SETS UP ALOFT. THIS COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT COMPOUNDING FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE IN
THE PERIOD MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT SPECIFIC DETAILS.
THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR SOME POTENTIALLY STRONGER CONVECTION WITH THAT
SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM. THE CAPE CONTOURS IN EFI/SOT DATA HAVE
STEADILY INCREASED WITH EACH PASSING MODEL RUN, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THAT GUIDANCE'S PARENT MODEL ALIGNS THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH DIURNAL HEATING MORE EFFECTIVELY. THE AFOREMENTIONED
WARMING TREND SHOULD CULMINATE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND THIS CORRESPONDS WITH MEAN MUCAPE
VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THAT FRONT IN THE 00Z ENS
DATA. THAT SET OF GUIDANCE ALSO RESOLVES 40-50 KNOTS OF MEAN BULK
SHEAR PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY'S WEST/EAST ORIENTATION. OTHER PIECES
OF GUIDANCE ARE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND RESOLVE IT WITH A MORE
MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION. THIS WOULD RELEGATE THE RELATED
PRECIPITATION TO PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT, AS IT WOULD BE
A LESS FAVORABLE SHEAR ORIENTATION AND A LESS FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. WHILE THE OVERARCHING SYNOPTIC SET-UP
ALOFT DOES NOT NECESSARILY FAVOR WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, A MARGINAL GUSTY-TO-LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND EVENT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHER PIECES OF CONVECTIVE GUIDANCE (NCAR AI,
CSU ML, AND CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE) SUPPORT THIS NOTION, WITH 5-15%
SEVERE PROBABILITY CONTOURS DRAWN OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
SPC NOTES THAT A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK MAY EMERGE IN THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY IN THIS TIME FRAME, ALBEIT WITH TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR A
DAY 4 OR 5 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. LONG STORY SHORT, IF SUFFICIENT
FRONTAL FORCING OVERLAPS WITH THE BETTER DIURNAL INSTABILITY,
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES COULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED
WIND GUSTS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS TOWARDS OR AWAY FROM
THE MORE FAVORABLE SET-UP IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES, AS THESE
STORM CHANCES POISE THE GREATEST RISK FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
TAFS ARE VFR AT THIS ISSUANCE AND WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP AT SITES FOR
THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA BUT
THERE'S A LOT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AND CONFIDENCE IS LACKING ON IF
THEY'LL HOLD TOGETHER BY TIME THEY ARRIVE; THEREFORE, DIDN'T
INCLUDE FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE TAF BUT WANTED TO MENTION IT
HERE. ASIDE FROM THE WAVE OF PRECIPITATION, THE AREA WILL BE DRY
AND VFR TAFS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...VORST
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