399
FXUS63 KJKL 182114
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
514 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM COULD BRING A FLURRY OR A SPRINKLE THE
AREA TODAY.
- THE WINTER CHILL WILL NOT LAST LONG. HIGHS WILL SOAR BACK INTO
THE 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
- A PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A
STRAY STORM MAINLY TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY
EVENING TO FRIDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS PRECEDE THE SYSTEM ON
FRIDAY.
- A LATE WEEKEND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-75.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
AS OF THE 1500Z SURFACE ANALYSIS, YESTERDAYS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
HAS SHIFTED FROM THE GULF COAST NORTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTICS
CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER REMAINS, TIED
TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. ALONG WITH THE FRONT, WEAK RADAR RETURNS ARE DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA. DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AT
THE SURFACE, THESE SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY VIRGA; HOWEVER, A STRAY FLURRY
OR SPRINKLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHERE PRECIPITATION RATES ARE
SLIGHTLY HEAVIER.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AS THE COVERAGE OF VIRGA SHOWERS DECREASES.
BY TONIGHT, THOSE SHOWERS WILL HAVE DISSIPATED AND CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. WHILE POST-FRONTAL CLEARING AND CAA
WOULD TYPICALLY SUPPORT A NOTABLE RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT,
LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS RELATIVELY MILD,
FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. IN ADDITION TO THE WESTERLY FLOW,
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF A SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL HELP
INSULATE THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY, THE SECOND SYSTEM
WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION, CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAY INCREASE; HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY LIMITING
FACTOR IS A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR FORECAST FROM THE SURFACE UP TO
APPROXIMATELY 700 MB. VERY HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES WOULD BE
REQUIRED TO REACH THE GROUND THROUGH SUCH A DRY COLUMN. THEREFORE,
THE HIGHEST POP CHANCES WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW.
NONETHELESS, THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES, WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID-60S. BEHIND THE FRONT, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS, BUT LINGERING CLOUD COVER MAY AGAIN LIMIT THE
RIDGE-VALLEY SPLIT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOWS ARE CURRENTLY
PROGGED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A PAIR OF PASSING, MOISTURE-
STARVED CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THEM. THE REGION WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH A WARMING TREND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
FOLLOWING THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND LIKELY RIDGE/VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT DURING A PERIOD WHEN LOW AND MID CLOUDS SHOULD
BE MINIMAL, MIXING OUT OF THE INVERSION ON FRIDAY MORNING BY THE
10 AM TO 11 AM EDT TIMEFRAME, WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME A
BIT GUSTY. OPTED TO LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER 90TH PERCENTILE AND MOS
GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 15Z TO 00Z SATURDAY AND
ALSO INCREASE GUSTS DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. BUFKIT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER WAS ALSO IN FAVOR OF THIS UPWARD ADJUSTMENT AND RECENT
FRONTS HAVE HAD SEVERAL MPH STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS
OBSERVED WHEN THE PERIOD ROLLS AROUND COMPARED TO THE NBM
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND PASSING SFC SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA AND
PERHAPS A STORM. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE
BEST FORCING SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA WITH LESSER TO NEARLY NIL CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN
FROM THIS NEARER TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND WEST.
PRIOR TO THE FRIDAY NIGHT SYSTEM, THE LOWEST HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED IN LOCATIONS GENERALLY FROM THE POTTSVILLE ESCARPMENT TO
WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CUMBERLAND MOUNTAINS ALONG THE VA
BORDER. IF PRECIPITATION IS MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST THURSDAY LEADING INTO THIS PERIOD OR FRIDAY NIGHT, THE
MIXING HEIGHTS, TRANSPORT WINDS, AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE LOWER,
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY HIGHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LIGHTER
WINDS AND TRANSPORT WINDS FOLLOW ON SATURDAY WITH A WEAKER
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES TREND
HIGHER FOR SATURDAY WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW AND SLIGHT UPTICK IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFFSETTING THE TEMPERATURE INCREASE AND
RESULTING SIMILAR MIN RH AS COMPARED TO FRIDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S OR 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. FOR SATURDAY, HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WITH
DEPARTURES OF AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTING ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS
AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DOMINATE THE WEATHER WELL INTO SUNDAY
IF NOT THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. HIGHS IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ON SUNDAY SHOULD RESULT IN EVEN HIGHER HIGHS ON THE ORDER OF
15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MOISTURE WILL NOT INCREASE MUCH AND
MIN RH MAY BE THE LOWEST OF THE NEXT 4 DAYS FOR MOST AREAS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT THEN DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TO END THE WEEKEND AND
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A STRONG STORM
OR TWO PER SEVERAL VERSION OF ENS AND GEFS BASED AI CONVECTIVE
HAZARD GUIDANCE WITH THE FOCUS FOR MANY NORTH AND/OR NORTHEAST OF
EASTERN KY ON THE 00Z RUNS. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND QPF REMAINS
LOW AND AVERAGE QPF APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME AS WELL AS HOW LONG
CHANCES LINGER. CONVECTION SUN EVENING TO MONDAY SHOULD FOCUS
MAINLY EAST OF I-75. RECENT DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE TRENDED THE
SYSTEM THROUGH QUICKER WITH CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WHILE
THE NBM BASED GUIDANCE HOLDS ONTO POPS LONGER. AS THIS PERIOD GETS
CLOSER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS AND TIMING SHOULD INCREASE. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MORE NORTH TO EAST WINDS LATER MONDAY TO
TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES NEARER TO OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
BY WEDNESDAY, RETURN FLOW MAY BRING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE
NORMAL. PASSING DISTURBANCES IN WNW TO NW FLOW ALOFT FROM LATE
MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY BRING PERIODIC INCREASES IN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS
TOWARD MIDNIGHT MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
TAFS ARE VFR AT THIS ISSUANCE AND WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP AT SITES FOR
THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA BUT
THERE'S A LOT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AND CONFIDENCE IS LACKING ON IF
THEY'LL HOLD TOGETHER BY TIME THEY ARRIVE; THEREFORE, DIDN'T
INCLUDE FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE TAF BUT WANTED TO MENTION IT
HERE. ASIDE FROM THE WAVE OF PRECIPITATION, THE AREA WILL BE DRY
AND VFR TAFS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...VORST
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