319
FXUS63 KJKL 062225
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
625 PM EDT MON APR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND SETTLES IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY
MORNING.
- FROST IS ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A FEW OF THE
NORMALLY COLDER AND SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING A FREEZE TONIGHT AND/OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
SUNDAY, WITH MAINLY RAIN-FREE WEATHER EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT MON APR 6 2026
A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST ARRIVES THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT, AND WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE
AREA. THE SECOND CROSSES THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY AND WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE OF A MUCH DRIER
AIR MASS. MEANWHILE, ALOFT, A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST CONUS WILL LIFT OUT AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
TUESDAY, WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE BIG FORECASTING CHALLENGES ARE WITH THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
FORECAST, BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT, AND ASSOCIATED
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. WITH ONE DRY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A SECOND
APPROACHING SHORTLY THEREAFTER, THE PRESENT THINKING IS THAT THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN JUST MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING TOO LOW. HAVE THUS OPTED TO KEEP MOST COALFIELDS
VALLEYS IN THE LOWER 30S RATHER THAN UPPER 20S, WITH LOWER 30S TO
NEAR 40 DEGREES OTHERWISE. HAVE THUS OPTED TO GO WITH A FROST
ADVISORY ONCE AGAIN FOR TONIGHT OVER ANY FREEZE HEADLINES, THOUGH
THERE IS CERTAINLY A CHANCE SOME OF THE COLDEST VALLEY LOCATIONS
COULD HIT FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA.
IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER AIR MASS WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING
THE 50S FOR HIGHS, THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TUESDAY INVOLVES THE
DEW POINT AND RH FORECAST, WITH SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND
WRF-ARW DEPICTING DEW POINTS PLUMMETING IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
LOWER TEENS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, THUS RESULTING IN CRITICALLY LOW RH
VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS IN THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. A
FIRE WEATHER STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN TIMING AND SEVERITY OF THE DRY AIR ARRIVING
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A FREEZE BECOMES MUCH MORE LIKELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A VERY DRY AIR MASS ARRIVING TUESDAY WITH THE
SECOND DRY COLD FRONT. WITH A DRY AIR MASS, CLEAR SKIES, AND LIGHT
WINDS, THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN WINDS DECOUPLING ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PRESENT HIGHER
CHANCES FOR SOME, IF NOT MANY, LOCATIONS REACHING FREEZE CRITERIA,
WITH FORECAST LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT MON APR 6 2026
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH
FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH CONTINUED DRY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY WARMER AFTERNOONS, WHILE NIGHTS WILL SEE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THUS COOLER NIGHTS.
TOWARD THE WEEKEND, A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE VICINITY OF THE OHIO RIVER BEFORE LIKELY LIFTING BACK
NORTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THUS, LOW POPS ARE INCLUDED
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BUT MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
THE COMBINATION OF WARMING, WITH CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY AND RAIN-
FREE CONDITIONS, WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF INCREASED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM EDT MON APR 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...HAL
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