271
FXUS63 KJKL 071738
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
138 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND SETTLES IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- A FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM
EDT WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
SUNDAY, WITH MAINLY RAIN-FREE WEATHER EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST T/TD OBSERVATIONS HAVE
BEEN BLENDED INTO THE HOURLY FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1036 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
TEMPERATURES ARE CLIMBING RAPIDLY LATE THIS MORNING UNDER STRONG
SURFACE HEATING -- INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND 50S ACROSS
THE SOUTH. WITH THE RISING TEMPERATURES, THE THREAT OF FROST ENDED
AND THE FROST ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM.
WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL KEEP 850 HPA TEMPERATURES IN THE -1C TO
+4 C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTH-SOUTH, AS PER THE RAP13.
HOWEVER, GIVEN STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND DEEP MIXING TO ABOVE
850 HPA, THIS SHOULD SUPPORT MAXIMUM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 50S NORTH OF I-64 TO THE MID 60S ALONG THE KY-VA BORDER (AN
INCREASE OF ABOUT 2 DEGREES VERSUS THE PRIOR FORECAST). OTHERWISE,
THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE LARGELY ON TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
TEMPERATURES IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS HAVE
DROPPED OFF TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. THIS HAD
LED TO SOME FROST FORMATION IN THESE AREAS. THIS FROST SHOULD MELT
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER, THE PATTERN APPEARS MORE
FAVORABLE TONIGHT FOR EITHER FROST FORMATION IN MORE LOCATIONS AND
SOME BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S FOR THE NORMALLY
COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS. AN ADDITIONAL HEADLINE WILL BE NEEDED FOR
TONIGHT (TUESDAY NIGHT) AS WELL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED
FROM EASTERN CANADA TOT HE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO SOUTHEAST CONUS. AT THE SFC AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE UPSTATE NY VICINITY IN ADVANCE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT THAT CROSSED EASTERN KY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HAS SAGGED SOUTH OF THE AREA AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MS VALLEY
VICINITY. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PASSING OVERHEAD FROM TIME
TO TIME WITH A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES. BEHIND THE FRONT
SOME LOCATIONS REMAIN MIXY WITH 4 AM EDT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS, WHILE
MORE OPEN TERRAIN LOCATIONS AND COALFIELD RIDGES WERE IN THE MID
40S.
TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP OFF
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S THROUGH AROUND DAWN AND ALLOW FOR SOME
FROST FORMATION. OTHERWISE, THE SFC HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS AND A GENERAL GRADUAL
INCREASE IN 500 MB HEIGHTS IS EXPECTED. WITH A COLDER AND DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS
TODAY WHILE HUMIDITY ALSO TRENDS LOWER. MIN RH SHOULD BE SUB 30
AREAWIDE, WITH THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE ANTICIPATED. NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT 10 MPH OR LESS TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPWARD TREND IN 500 MB HEIGHTS
ANTICIPATED. AT THE SAME TIME, THE AXIS OF THE SFC HIGH WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF EASTERN KY WITH ALL OF THIS
OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF TROUGHING IN THE PLAINS/CENTRAL CONUS.
FOLLOWING LOWER AFTERNOON MIXED DEWPOINTS THIS UPCOMING
AFTERNOON, LOWS AREAWIDE SHOULD TREND COLDER FOR TONIGHT (TUESDAY
NIGHT) WITH RIDGING DOMINATING. THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY
LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE A FREEZE WITH FROST POSSIBLE FOR MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS. FROST COULD BE SCANT ON COALFIELD RIDGETOPS AND
OTHER MORE OPEN TERRAIN LOCATIONS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS LEAD
TO A MODERATION IN HIGHS TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT
DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE AS THIS FLOW WILL
HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN SW VA AND
EASTERN TN. WIDESPREAD RH OF 25 PERCENT OR LESS WITH SOME
LOCATIONS REACHING THE TEENS IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD OPENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE AREA UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RIDGE-VALLEY SPLITS. EASTERN
VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S. THIS COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FROST DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE,
WESTERN VALLEYS, AND RIDGE TOPS WILL COOL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COMES OUT OF BRITISH COLOMBIA
AND ARRIVES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. AS THIS LOW
PROGRESSES INTO EASTERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC ON THURSDAY, A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, AND UPPER MIDWEST. FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY, QUIET
WEATHER REMAINS WITH RIDGING DOMINATING, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S, 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH WINDS SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY, LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPING WINDS OF OF HIGHER TERRAIN IN
SW VA AND EASTERN TN WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL INCREASES IN DEWPOINTS
AND RH BELOW CRITICAL VALUES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN VALLEYS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
RANGE WHILE RIDGETOPS AND MORE OPEN TERRAIN LOCATIONS DROP TO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.
THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH FRIDAY, AS ITS INFLUENCE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHEAST UP THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC. LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING
TREND, WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF LOW HUMIDITY SHOULD ENSUE.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS CANADA'S COLD FRONT WILL
LINGER OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY,
BEFORE GAINING AN ALMOST WEST-EAST ORIENTATION AS IT SAGS SOUTH
INTO THE OH VALLEY AND PERHAPS SETTLES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
KENTUCKY SATURDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH. PENDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY REACHES, WINDS VEER
THROUGH THE DAY FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY. TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF, WHILE TROUGHING OCCURS OFF THE WEST COAST OF
CONUS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S SOME 10 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ON SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EJECT OUT OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/ UPPER MIDWEST
THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE 80S.
THE COMBINATION OF WARMING, WITH CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY AND RAIN-
FREE CONDITIONS, WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A FEW MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS PASS FROM TIME TO TIME. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5
TO 10 KTS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY VEER SOUTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ044-050-
051-058-059-068-069-079-080-083>088.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
KYZ052-060-104-106>120.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GINNICK/JP
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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