705
FXUS63 KJKL 071959
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
359 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND SETTLES IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SHELTERED VALLEYS NORTH OF CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN AND EAST
OF THE POTTSVILLE ESCARPMENT AND ALSO ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS.
- A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN KENTUCKY, PRIMARILY FOR
SHELTERED AND LOW-LYING AREAS.
- TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
SUNDAY, WITH MAINLY RAIN-FREE WEATHER EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FOUND ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AT
MID-AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTH OF
I-64 TO THE MID 60S IN THE MIDDLESBORO BASIN UNDER FULL SUNSHINE
AND A WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW. DEEP MIXING INTO THE DRY AND COOL AIR
MASS ALOFT (-3C TO +3C, NORTH TO SOUTH AT 850 HPA) IS ALSO SUPPORTING
DRY DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE 20S. AT THE SURFACE, AN ~1035 MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. A
PARENT 500 HPA RIDGE AXIS IS NOTED FURTHER UPSTREAM FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHWARD IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM TO OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
WEAK NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST WELL INTO TONIGHT
WITH 3 TO 4 MB OF SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE WINDS WILL BE
MORE FAVORABLY ORIENTED FOR MIXING INTO THE DEEPER VALLEYS FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT, BUT AS WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY TO
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY, BETTER DECOUPLING SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS. WITH THE VERY LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE,
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO FALL SHARPLY IN VALLEYS ONCE DECOUPLING
OCCURS, LEADING TO A FREEZE IN MANY SHELTERED VALLEYS NORTHEAST
OF THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN AND EAST OF THE POTTSVILLE
ESCARPMENT. CONFIDENCE IN A FREEZE IS MORE MARGINAL OVER THE
EASTERN BLUEGRASS BUT THEY HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN A FREEZE WARNING
AS TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FREEZING COMBINED WITH WIND COULD STILL
DESICCATE TENDER VEGETATION IN THE ABSENCE OF FROST. LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL VEER SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH ON WEDNESDAY,
ADVECTING WARM AIR BACK NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 850
HPA TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO 8 TO 10C BY THE END OF THE DAY.
SOME INCREASE IN MID- AND UPPER- LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME, LEADING TO THE RETURN OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
WHILE DEW POINTS SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR FREEZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW DIRECTION WILL BE AMONG THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR
VALLEY DECOUPLING SO FROST IS LIKELY AGAIN IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-75.
IN SENSIBLE TERMS, LOOK FOR SUNNY SKIES TO GIVE WAY TO A CLEAR AND
COLD NIGHT WITH A LIGHT NORTH TO EASTERLY BREEZE AT TIMES. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN THE COLDEST
EASTERN HOLLOWS TO THE MID 30S ON THERMAL BELT RIDGES. FROST
SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE DUE TO THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR MASS EVEN
WHERE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OCCUR. ON WEDNESDAY, LOOK FOR
CONTINUED DRY BUT WARMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT EXPECT A SHARPER RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE
SPLIT WITH THERMOMETERS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEYS UP TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ON RIDGES
AND OVER OPEN TERRAIN OF THE BLUEGRASS AND LAKE CUMBERLAND
REGIONS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD OPENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE AREA UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RIDGE-VALLEY SPLITS. EASTERN
VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S. THIS COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FROST DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE,
WESTERN VALLEYS, AND RIDGE TOPS WILL COOL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COMES OUT OF BRITISH COLOMBIA
AND ARRIVES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. AS THIS LOW
PROGRESSES INTO EASTERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC ON THURSDAY, A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, AND UPPER MIDWEST. FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY, QUIET
WEATHER REMAINS WITH RIDGING DOMINATING, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S, 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH WINDS SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY, LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPING WINDS OF OF HIGHER TERRAIN IN
SW VA AND EASTERN TN WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL INCREASES IN DEWPOINTS
AND RH BELOW CRITICAL VALUES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN VALLEYS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
RANGE WHILE RIDGETOPS AND MORE OPEN TERRAIN LOCATIONS DROP TO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.
THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH FRIDAY, AS ITS INFLUENCE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHEAST UP THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC. LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING
TREND, WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF LOW HUMIDITY SHOULD ENSUE.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS CANADA'S COLD FRONT WILL
LINGER OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY,
BEFORE GAINING AN ALMOST WEST-EAST ORIENTATION AS IT SAGS SOUTH
INTO THE OH VALLEY AND PERHAPS SETTLES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
KENTUCKY SATURDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH. PENDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY REACHES, WINDS VEER
THROUGH THE DAY FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY. TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF, WHILE TROUGHING OCCURS OFF THE WEST COAST OF
CONUS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S SOME 10 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ON SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EJECT OUT OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/ UPPER MIDWEST
THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE 80S.
THE COMBINATION OF WARMING, WITH CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY AND RAIN-
FREE CONDITIONS, WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A FEW MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS PASS FROM TIME TO TIME. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5
TO 10 KTS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY VEER SOUTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ044-050-
051.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
KYZ052-060-104-106>120.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ058-059-
068-069-079-080-083>088.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GINNICK/JP
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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