274
FXUS63 KJKL 080358 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1158 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND SETTLES IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SHELTERED VALLEYS NORTH OF CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN AND EAST
OF THE POTTSVILLE ESCARPMENT AND ALSO ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS.
- A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN KENTUCKY, PRIMARILY FOR
SHELTERED AND LOW-LYING AREAS.
- TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
SUNDAY, WITH MAINLY RAIN-FREE WEATHER EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD GRIDS.
THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE NPWS, SAFS, AND ZONES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE STATE IS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THIS IS WORKING TO SETTLE THE WINDS AND KEEP SKIES CLEAR - SETTING
UP GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. CURRENTLY, THOUGH,
TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MOST PLACES.
MEANWHILE, AMID NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH, DEWPOINTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S WEST AND THE UPPER TEENS IN THE
EAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO ADD IN THE LATEST OBS
AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF
THE ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FOUND ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AT
MID-AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTH OF
I-64 TO THE MID 60S IN THE MIDDLESBORO BASIN UNDER FULL SUNSHINE
AND A WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW. DEEP MIXING INTO THE DRY AND COOL AIR
MASS ALOFT (-3C TO +3C, NORTH TO SOUTH AT 850 HPA) IS ALSO SUPPORTING
DRY DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE 20S. AT THE SURFACE, AN ~1035 MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. A
PARENT 500 HPA RIDGE AXIS IS NOTED FURTHER UPSTREAM FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHWARD IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM TO OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
WEAK NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST WELL INTO TONIGHT
WITH 3 TO 4 MB OF SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE WINDS WILL BE
MORE FAVORABLY ORIENTED FOR MIXING INTO THE DEEPER VALLEYS FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT, BUT AS WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY TO
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY, BETTER DECOUPLING SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS. WITH THE VERY LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE,
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO FALL SHARPLY IN VALLEYS ONCE DECOUPLING
OCCURS, LEADING TO A FREEZE IN MANY SHELTERED VALLEYS NORTHEAST
OF THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN AND EAST OF THE POTTSVILLE
ESCARPMENT. CONFIDENCE IN A FREEZE IS MORE MARGINAL OVER THE
EASTERN BLUEGRASS BUT THEY HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN A FREEZE WARNING
AS TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FREEZING COMBINED WITH WIND COULD STILL
DESICCATE TENDER VEGETATION IN THE ABSENCE OF FROST. LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL VEER SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH ON WEDNESDAY,
ADVECTING WARM AIR BACK NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 850
HPA TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO 8 TO 10C BY THE END OF THE DAY.
SOME INCREASE IN MID- AND UPPER- LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME, LEADING TO THE RETURN OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
WHILE DEW POINTS SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR FREEZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW DIRECTION WILL BE AMONG THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR
VALLEY DECOUPLING SO FROST IS LIKELY AGAIN IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-75.
IN SENSIBLE TERMS, LOOK FOR SUNNY SKIES TO GIVE WAY TO A CLEAR AND
COLD NIGHT WITH A LIGHT NORTH TO EASTERLY BREEZE AT TIMES. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN THE COLDEST
EASTERN HOLLOWS TO THE MID 30S ON THERMAL BELT RIDGES. FROST
SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE DUE TO THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR MASS EVEN
WHERE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OCCUR. ON WEDNESDAY, LOOK FOR
CONTINUED DRY BUT WARMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT EXPECT A SHARPER RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE
SPLIT WITH THERMOMETERS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEYS UP TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ON RIDGES
AND OVER OPEN TERRAIN OF THE BLUEGRASS AND LAKE CUMBERLAND
REGIONS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
THE MODELS ARE GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH FAIRLY AMPLIFIED FLOW TO RULE
OVER THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT
FROM WEST OF THE ROCKIES TO EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. A RIDGE CENTER WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, BOUTS OF
EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND THEN RIDE NORTHEAST
AROUND THE RIDGE IN THE EAST. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BEFORE EASING
A BIT CLOSER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, PROVIDING OUR AREA WITH A
SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING EACH
DAY, WITH LOW TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY, AND THEN MID TO
UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY. CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT RETURN FLOW, AND DRY AIR
IN PLACE WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER HEALTHY RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. VALLEYS WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S, WHILE
RIDGETOPS STAY IN THE LOWER 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATE AS IT ATTEMPTS
TO CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT THESE WILL NOT
PROVIDE ANY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL THAT IS NEEDED ACROSS THE AREA,
ASSUMING THEY ACTUAL MATERIALIZE.
TEMPERATURES WILL STALL A BIT IN OUR NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ON SATURDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS, BUT BY SUNDAY, 500 MB
HEIGHTS WILL RISE MORE DECISIVELY, WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
WELL INTO THE 80S, POSSIBLY THREATENING SOME RECORD HIGHS FOR THAT
DATE. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 80S, ALTHOUGH MODULATED BY
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. LOWS WILL MODERATE FROM THE 50S TO
EVENTUALLY THE 60S. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL ARRIVES ON
TUESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW, GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO
OUR SOUTHEAST, AND THE CONTINUED OVERALL DRIER PATTERN IN PLACE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD AS JUST A FEW MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS PASS FROM TIME TO TIME. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5
TO 10 KTS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY VEER
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ044-050-051.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ052-060-104-
106>120.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ058-059-068-069-
079-080-083>088.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF
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