531
FXUS63 KJKL 081737
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
137 PM EDT WED APR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FROST IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.
- LOW HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
SUNDAY, WITH MAINLY RAIN-FREE WEATHER EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1108 AM EDT WED APR 8 2026
WITH TEMPERATURES HAVING WARMED WELL ABOVE FREEZING, THE FROST
ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING WERE CANCELLED EARLY. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY, CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS
ENTERING THE AREA, ALTHOUGH THEY REMAIN RELATIVELY THIN AND
WISPY. GIVEN THIS TREND, CLOUD COVER WAS DECREASED AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 747 AM EDT WED APR 8 2026
HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WERE FINE TUNED BASED ON RECENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES AT
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES HAVE BOTTOMED OUT OR NEARLY HAVE BOTTOMED
OUT AT THIS POINT AND FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE
A THREAT AFTER 10 AM EDT. OTHERWISE, THE RATHER DRY AIRMASS WILL
MODERATE TODAY AND LOW MIN HUMIDITY IS ANTICIPATED. A FEW OF THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE A BIT OF FROST TONIGHT AS
WELL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT WED APR 8 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDED FROM
THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WITH THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN CANAD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WAS IN PLACE FROM THE BAJA REGION OF MEXICO NORTH INTO
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CONUS. IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE, A RATHER WEAK
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN
BORDER WITH ND WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED INTO
THE SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE UPSTATE NY/NORTHERN PA VICINITY
WITH THIS RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND ALSO WEST
AND SOUTHWEST INTO SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO OH
VALLEY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KY WITH A
FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME WITH A FEW MID CLOUDS
UPSTREAM OVER PARTS OF IL AND IN INTO CENTRAL KY. TEMPERATURES AS
OF 5 AM EDT RANGED WIDELY FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH AND EAST TO THE 30S TO LOWS
40S ELSEWHERE. THE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WAS RATHER
DRY WITH PW ON THE ORDER OF 0.3 TO 0.5 INCHES FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST OR ROUGHLY THE 20TH TO 40TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. MORE NOTABLE WERE DEWPOINTS OUTSIDE OF THE DECOUPLED VALLEY
LOCATIONS WHICH WERE IN THE TEENS IN THE NORTH AND EAST AND RANGED
THROUGH THE 20S TO AROUND 30 IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST.
THROUGH THIS EVENING, A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AT 500 MB IS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS EASTERN KY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS TO MID ATLANTIC STATES
DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER LOW THAT MOVES INTO ONTARIO AND NEARS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE PLAINS MERGES
WITH IT RESULTING IN AN UPPER TROUGH SOUTH INTO THE UPPER TO MID
MS VALLEY REGIONS LATE THIS EVENING THAT PROGRESSES ACROSS ONTARIO
AND TO QUEBEC AS WELL AS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH
VALLEY TO PORTIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE
UPPER RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO SOUTHEAST
WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING TO NEAR OR EAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD,
BUT WEAKENS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SFC HING PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
TO EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST US COAST WITH RIDGING
EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE, THE
UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL BE PRECEDED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT TRACKS ACROSS ONTARIO AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF JAMES BAY
AND INTO ONTARIO THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WHILE THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH THE WESTERN PORTION DROPPING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
FROST WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH AROUND 10 AM EDT AS TEMPERATURES WARM
AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, THE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY
WINDS INITIALLY TODAY THAT VEER AROUND TO SOUTHEAST OR SOUTHERLY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S, BUT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HAVE A WEAK DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT AS WELL AS THIS COUPLED WITH THE DRIER THAN AVERAGE
TREND OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS SHOULD RESULT IN DEWPOINTS DRIER
TO CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN DETERMINISTIC NBM TODAY. WIDESPREAD
MIN RH BELOW 25 PERCENT IS EXPECTED WHICH MAY BE AS LOW AS 15
PERCENT IN THE LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT AND
SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER EASTERN LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE
FROST WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S THERE WITH SOME LOW 30S NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS
WELL AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL MODERATION IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES, BUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE POTTSVILLE ESCARPMENT EAST,
THESE WINDS WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S AND THIS RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH WIDESPREAD MIN RH
BELOW 25 PERCENT IF NOT BELOW 20 PERCENT IN SECTIONS OF THE
HAZARD AND MOREHEAD BRANCHES OF THE KDF.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED APR 8 2026
BY THURSDAY EVENING, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE PROGRESSED
INTO QUEBEC MEANWHILE, AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON
THURSDAY NIGHT, THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL IT THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO CENTRAL PLAINS.
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS COLD FRONT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE SOUTHEAST US INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC, INCLUDING EASTERN KENTUCKY, WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING. THIS WILL LEAD
TO CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS, AND DRY AIR
THURSDAY NIGHT. A HEALTHY RIDGE-VALLEY SPLIT IN EASTERN HOLLOWS
AND VALLEY IS ANTICIPATED, WITH VALLEYS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
30S, WHILE RIDGE TOPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
THIS COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SLOW DOWN AND PERHAPS STALL OUT IN THE
OHIO VALLEY VICINITY, NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY,
LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, DRY WEATHER, LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS, AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. FRIDAY NIGHT
THE COLD FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY SAGS SOUTH BUT WEAKENS AS IT
DOES SO. IT MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY, MOST LIKELY
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY, BUT WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT OR
MEANINGFUL IN TERMS OF RAINFALL.
SATURDAY, THIS FRONT STALLS OUT AGAIN, CURRENTLY MODELED TO STALL
OVER THE AREA. TO THE NORTH, BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES ARE
SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, WHILE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
FURTHER SOUTH. ASIDE FROM A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS, SATURDAY
REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO. AGAIN, THIS NOT APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANT
OR MEANINGFUL IN TERMS OF RAINFALL EITHER.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE SOUTHEAST US WILL RESULT
IN THE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH TO END THE WEEKEND ON
SUNDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND TEMPERATES
WARMING INTO THE 80S. THE RECORD HIGH AT JACKSON OF 83 DEGREES
FROM 2014 MAY BE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING BROKEN ON SUNDAY. NIGHTTIME
LOWS CONTINUE TO MODERATE AS WELL, WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL ARRIVES ON
TUESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW, GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO
OUR SOUTHEAST, AND THE CONTINUED OVERALL DRIER PATTERN IN PLACE.
THE COMBINATION OF WARMING, WITH CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY AND RAIN-
FREE CONDITIONS, WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS TO END THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT WED APR 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING FROM TIME TO TIME AS SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DOMINATE. VARIABLE TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GEERTSON/FAGAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GINNICK/JP
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF/JP
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