044
FXUS63 KJKL 082345 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
745 PM EDT WED APR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY IN
SHELTERED RURAL HOLLOWS AND VALLEYS.
- LOW HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
SUNDAY, WITH MAINLY RAIN-FREE WEATHER EXPECTED.
- THE NEXT BETTER CHANCE OF RAINFALL DOESN'T ARRIVE UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT WED APR 8 2026
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
BUT STILL IS BASICALLY IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS IS WORKING TO SETTLE THE WINDS THIS EVENING WHILE
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY UNDER HIGH LEVEL ONE. CURRENTLY,
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MOST PLACES.
MEANWHILE, AMID LIGHT SOUTH WINDS, DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID
40S WEST TO THE LOWER 30S EAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY
TO ADD IN THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS. THESE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG
WITH A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT WED APR 8 2026
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER WISPY
HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES RANGE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S WHILE DEW POINTS RANGE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO
LOW AND MID 40S SOUTH, YIELDING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. A LARGE ~1036 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COAST
BUT CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN
CONUS. LOCALLY, THIS HIGH IS FEEDING A DRY DOWNSLOPED SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN KENTUCKY COALFIELDS. LOW PRESSURE IS ALSO
NOTED ALONG THE MANITOBA/US BORDER WITH A COLD FRONT ARCING
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL AND THEN SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME ELONGATED SW-NE AND
BECOME SQUASHED ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC AND LEAVES ITS COLD
FRONT DRAPED FROM THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TO MISSOURI BY 12Z
FRIDAY. ACROSS THE JKL CWA, A PASSING WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING INCREASED HIGH CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
CLOUDS AND AN ~3 MB SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP VALLEYS
FROM COMPLETELY RADIATING OUT TONIGHT. WITH THAT SAID THOUGH,
COOP MOS STILL SUGGESTS THE COLDEST SHELTERED RURAL VALLEYS AND
HOLLOWS DIPPING TO NEAR 30F, SO AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER
THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FROST IN THE COLDEST SPOTS. CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THEN RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD AS THE DRY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW PULLS DRY AIR OVER
AND AROUND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. FURTHER WARMING OF THE
OVERALL AIR MASS IS ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY BUT CONDITIONS MAY
STILL BE FAVORABLE AGAIN FOR A TOUCH OF LIGHT FROST IN THE COLDEST
SHELTERED VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS UP TO AROUND 50F ON THE THERMAL BELT
RIDGES. AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST RURAL VALLEY
AREAS AROUND PLACES LIKE WEST LIBERTY, INEZ, AND SANDY HOOK. FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT FAIR WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED APR 8 2026
MAINLY AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL CONTROL THE PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. A RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT QUICKLY FROM THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
RIDGING WILL THEN REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, A DEEPER CLOSED
LOW WILL ROTATE ONSHORE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC BY THE END OF THE
WEEK, BEFORE GRADUALLY DAMPENING AND MOVING EAST, REACHING THE
PLAINS BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. PLENTY OF LEAD SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL
BE TRAVERSING THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW SET UP ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE CONUS, WITH THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY STAYING JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE COMMONWEALTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE EDGING
CLOSER TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, PROVIDING EASTERN KENTUCKY
WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATES AS IT CROSSES THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF KY-80 FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES CREEPING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH ON
SATURDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, IF THESE DO ACTUALLY INITIATE, THEY WILL
NOT PROVIDE ANY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL THAT IS NEEDED ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STALL A BIT IN OUR NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ON SATURDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
ON SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WELL INTO THE 80S, THANKS TO
SHARPER RIDGING ALOFT. READINGS WILL THREATEN SOME RECORD HIGHS
FOR THAT DATE. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY IN THE 80S,
ALTHOUGH MODULATED BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER INTO NEXT WEEK.
LOWS WILL MODERATE FROM THE 50S TO EVENTUALLY THE 60S. SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES WILL THREATEN FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT WED APR 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DOMINATE. VARIABLE TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT AROUND 5 KTS, OR LESS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF
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