245
FXUS63 KJKL 091219 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
819 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES AVERAGE 5 TO 15 DEGREES THROUGH SATURDAY, AND 15 TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY.
- A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR STRAY STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY, BUT AVERAGE RAINFALL
FROM THESE SHOULD BE MEAGER.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MAY ARRIVE DURING THE MIDDLE TO END
OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
HOURLY GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A WARMING TREND, BUT DEWPOINTS WILL
NOT CLIMB THAT MUCH AND ANOTHER DAY WITH LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS CENTERED OVER THE SC
TO GA VICINITY AND EXTENDED INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THIS UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE MID
MS VALLEY. FURTHER WEST, WEAK RIDGING WAS CENTERED IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND EXTENDING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY TO PARTS OF
THE GREAT BASIN WITH MORE OR LESS ZONAL FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
SASKATCHEWAN TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES VICINITY. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS MEANDERING TO THE WEST OF THE WEST COAST OF
THE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WHILE THE AXIS WAS SOUTH AND EAST OF
EASTERN KY AND EXTENDED SOUTHWEST INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND
SOUTHEAST. HIGH CLOUDS AT A TIMES A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
PASSING OVERHEAD ACROSS EASTERN KY OVERNIGHT. DEEPER RURAL
VALLEYS HAVE DECOUPLED AND DROPPED OFF INTO THE UPPER 30S, WHILE
ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES RANGED THROUGH THE 40S TO MID 50S.
TODAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER
THE CAROLINAS TO VA COAST WHILE HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE LOWER TO
MID MS VALLEY THIS PROGRESSES INTO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE ALSO PROGGED TO RISE ACROSS EASTERN KY
TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO TRACKS TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN END
OF JAMES BAY AND INTO QUEBEC AND THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN 500 MB HEIGHTS ACROSS EASTERN KY CONTINUING.
MEANWHILE, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM
SASKATCHEWAN TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO REACH MANITOBA
TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE MID MS VALLEY THIS EVENING WITH THIS
TROUGH REACHING ONTARIO TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO LOWER OH
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT TO EARLY ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE JAMES BAY TO ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER AREA TO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO MID OH VALLEY/EASTERN KY BY THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON FRIDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE, THE AXIS
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM SOUTHEAST OF THE
MARITIMES TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS CANADA AND NORTH OF EASTERN KY A SFC LOW WILL TRACK
FROM ONTARIO TO QUEBEC TO THE MARITIMES THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE THE
TRIALING FRONTAL ZONE/BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST AND
SAGS INTO THE OH VALLEY REGIONS TO CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS.
IN THIS SCENARIO, SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS EASTERN
KY TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO WARMING, BUT ALSO HAVE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN TN AND SOUTHWEST VA.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ONLY A SLOW UPTICK IN DEWPOINTS TODAY WITH
HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SCENARIO CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS WELL WITH WINDS A BIT MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH LEADS TO A BIT MORE OF AN UPTICK IN DEWPOINTS
THOUGH THIS IS LARGELY OFFSET BY THE WARMING WITH ONLY A SMALL
INCREASE IN MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITY ANTICIPATED ON AVERAGE. IN
BETWEEN, VALLEYS SHOULD DECOUPLE AGAIN TONIGHT AND DROP OFF
INTO WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S IF NOT NEAR THE 40 DEGREES MARK IN THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE RIDGETOP LOCATIONS IN THE
COALFIELDS MAY NOT DROP BELOW THE 50 DEGREE MARK.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
FRIDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY BY SATURDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO MAY OCCUR
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY, HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO RAIN
IS EXPECTED ON AVERAGE. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, THE PREVIOUS
MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO 80S. IN FACT, ASIDE FROM
TEMPERATURES WARMING 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 83 IN JACKSON IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE BROKEN.
THE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOUTHERLY
WINDS THAT MAY AGAIN HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AND DEEP MIXING
SHOULD FAVOR ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF LOW MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS STRONGHOLD OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS, WHILE BEING LOCATED OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE. MULTIPLE LOWS
IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD. WHILE MOST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STAY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE AREA, SOME MAY WORK INTO AREAS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH CONFIDENCE HIGHER THAT MORE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS
REMAIN RAIN FREE. LATER MONDAY A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGS
SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY WORK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
AREA BEFORE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES HIGHS INTO THE 80S
THROUGH THURSDAY. AT NIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES ALSO TREND UPWARD IN
THE LONG-TERM, STARTING IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHTS BEFORE TRENDING INTO THE 50S FOR VALLEYS AND 60S
FOR RIDGES AND AREAS OF MORE OPEN TERRAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE CLOSER TO
AVERAGES IN THE 50S. IT WAS WRITTEN EARLIER THAT THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 83 COULD BE IN JEOPARDY ON SUNDAY AT JACKSON, BUT
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES (WARM LOWS) COULD BE IN PLAY AS
WELL.
THE COMBINATION OF WARMING, WITH CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY AND RAIN-
FREE CONDITIONS, SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED FIRE WEATHER DANGER
TO END THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST PASSING
HIGH AND PERHAPS A FEW MID CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SFC AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KT SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GINNICK/JP
AVIATION...JP
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