271
FXUS63 KJKL 091855
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
255 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES AVERAGE 5 TO 15 DEGREES THROUGH SATURDAY, AND 15 TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY.
- A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY, BUT AVERAGE RAINFALL FROM THESE SHOULD
BE MEAGER.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME RAINFALL MAY ARRIVE DURING THE MIDDLE
TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. EXPECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO BUMP HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO RECENT OBSERVATIONS, BUT
THIS WILL STILL RESULT IN WARM AND DRY WEATHER TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
HOURLY GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A WARMING TREND, BUT DEWPOINTS WILL
NOT CLIMB THAT MUCH AND ANOTHER DAY WITH LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS CENTERED OVER THE SC
TO GA VICINITY AND EXTENDED INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THIS UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE MID
MS VALLEY. FURTHER WEST, WEAK RIDGING WAS CENTERED IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND EXTENDING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY TO PARTS OF
THE GREAT BASIN WITH MORE OR LESS ZONAL FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
SASKATCHEWAN TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES VICINITY. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS MEANDERING TO THE WEST OF THE WEST COAST OF
THE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WHILE THE AXIS WAS SOUTH AND EAST OF
EASTERN KY AND EXTENDED SOUTHWEST INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND
SOUTHEAST. HIGH CLOUDS AT A TIMES A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
PASSING OVERHEAD ACROSS EASTERN KY OVERNIGHT. DEEPER RURAL
VALLEYS HAVE DECOUPLED AND DROPPED OFF INTO THE UPPER 30S, WHILE
ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES RANGED THROUGH THE 40S TO MID 50S.
TODAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER
THE CAROLINAS TO VA COAST WHILE HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE LOWER TO
MID MS VALLEY THIS PROGRESSES INTO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE ALSO PROGGED TO RISE ACROSS EASTERN KY
TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO TRACKS TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN END
OF JAMES BAY AND INTO QUEBEC AND THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN 500 MB HEIGHTS ACROSS EASTERN KY CONTINUING.
MEANWHILE, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM
SASKATCHEWAN TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO REACH MANITOBA
TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE MID MS VALLEY THIS EVENING WITH THIS
TROUGH REACHING ONTARIO TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO LOWER OH
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT TO EARLY ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE JAMES BAY TO ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER AREA TO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO MID OH VALLEY/EASTERN KY BY THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON FRIDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE, THE AXIS
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM SOUTHEAST OF THE
MARITIMES TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS CANADA AND NORTH OF EASTERN KY A SFC LOW WILL TRACK
FROM ONTARIO TO QUEBEC TO THE MARITIMES THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE THE
TRIALING FRONTAL ZONE/BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST AND
SAGS INTO THE OH VALLEY REGIONS TO CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS.
IN THIS SCENARIO, SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS EASTERN
KY TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO WARMING, BUT ALSO HAVE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN TN AND SOUTHWEST VA.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ONLY A SLOW UPTICK IN DEWPOINTS TODAY WITH
HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SCENARIO CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS WELL WITH WINDS A BIT MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH LEADS TO A BIT MORE OF AN UPTICK IN DEWPOINTS
THOUGH THIS IS LARGELY OFFSET BY THE WARMING WITH ONLY A SMALL
INCREASE IN MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITY ANTICIPATED ON AVERAGE. IN
BETWEEN, VALLEYS SHOULD DECOUPLE AGAIN TONIGHT AND DROP OFF
INTO WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S IF NOT NEAR THE 40 DEGREES MARK IN THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE RIDGETOP LOCATIONS IN THE
COALFIELDS MAY NOT DROP BELOW THE 50 DEGREE MARK.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A MAINLY
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PERSISTENT RIDGING WILL SETUP
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, WHILE A DEEPER CLOSED LOW ROTATES
ONSHORE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC BY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND DAMPEN WITH TIME THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VARIABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE
AFTER MONDAY, ESPECIALLY REGARDING TIMING. THE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE, WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER. ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL
ALSO MOVE IN ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY,
HELPING TO REINFORCE MEAN TROUGHING WEST OF THE ROCKIES, WHILE
MAINTAINING WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE CONUS.
MAINLY DRY AND PARTICULARLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE MAIN STORY FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY, WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS INITIATING SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. INSTABILITY LOOKS MORE LIMITED AND GIVEN THE
DIMINISHING FORCING, HAVE KEPT OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF A BIT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS A
WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WELL INTO THE 80S, THREATENING
RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO RETURN,
WITH RH VALUES LIKELY DIPPING TO BELOW 30 PERCENT AT MOST
LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WARMER READINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 80S, MODULATED BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AT TIMES, AS
SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY BRUSHES BY TO OUR NORTHWEST. LOWS WILL
MODERATE FROM THE 50S TO THE 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL RAIN
CHANCES (20-30%) WILL ALSO THREATEN AT TIMES FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL REMAINS VERY LOW. SOMEWHAT BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL
ARRIVE BY THURSDAY, AS A COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. THE TREND HAS BEEN TO DELAY THIS FRONT AND IT WILL LIKELY
ARRIVE IN A MORE WEAKENED CONDITION, LIMITING RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS, MAINLY ON FRIDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, SLACKENING TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
FRIDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...GEERTSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page