804
FXUS63 KJKL 092345 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
745 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES AVERAGE 5 TO 15 DEGREES THROUGH SATURDAY, AND 15 TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY.
- A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY, BUT AVERAGE RAINFALL FROM THESE SHOULD
BE MEAGER.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME RAINFALL MAY ARRIVE DURING THE MIDDLE
TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE, THOUGH CENTERED WELL TO THE
EAST, REMAINS IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS IS AGAIN WORKING TO SETTLE THE WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING AND KEEP SKIES NEARLY COMPLETELY CLEAR. CURRENTLY,
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. MEANWHILE, AMID
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S
WEST TO THE MID 30S EAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO
ADD IN THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS. THESE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG
WITH A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
DRY, WARM AND FAIR WEATHER PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 35
TO 45F RANGE, YIELDING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 25 TO 40 PERCENT.
THE QUIET WEATHER IS COURTESY OF AN ELONGATED RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC CANADA PROVINCES SOUTHWEST TO
THE CAROLINAS AND THEN WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
TO THE NORTH, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS PARENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE RIDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE JAMES BAY
AREA WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILS SOUTHWARD TO OVER LOWER
ONTARIO AND THEN SOUTHWEST TO ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER. A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED FROM MANITOBA SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS.
THE LEADING TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED LOW QUICKLY SCOOT ACROSS QUEBEC
AND OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LEAVING
THE COLD FRONT DRAPED NORTHWEST OF THE OHIO RIVER. THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS WHAT WILL ACTUALLY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH GLANCING
FORCING TO NUDGE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE
JKL CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY MAKING A MEAGER RECOVERY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF LITTLE FORCING, LIMITED
MOISTURE, AND LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY WILL KEEP ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITH THE FRONT LIGHT (GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES WHERE IT DOES
RAIN) AS THE BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE JKL CWA FROM THE NORTH AFTER 6Z
SATURDAY.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE SHELTERED EASTERN
VALLEYS TO THE LOWER 50S ON THERMAL BELT RIDGES TONIGHT WITH HIGHS OF
75 TO 80F ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL YIELD TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE (20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE) NEAR/NORTH
OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BE MILDER ON FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN SHELTERED SOUTHERN
VALLEYS TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FURTHER NORTH WHERE THICKER CLOUDS
ARRIVE SOONER.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A MAINLY
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PERSISTENT RIDGING WILL SETUP
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, WHILE A DEEPER CLOSED LOW ROTATES
ONSHORE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC BY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND DAMPEN WITH TIME THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VARIABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE
AFTER MONDAY, ESPECIALLY REGARDING TIMING. THE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE, WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER. ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL
ALSO MOVE IN ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY,
HELPING TO REINFORCE MEAN TROUGHING WEST OF THE ROCKIES, WHILE
MAINTAINING WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE CONUS.
MAINLY DRY AND PARTICULARLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE MAIN STORY FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY, WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS INITIATING SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. INSTABILITY LOOKS MORE LIMITED AND GIVEN THE
DIMINISHING FORCING, HAVE KEPT OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF A BIT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS A
WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WELL INTO THE 80S, THREATENING
RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO RETURN,
WITH RH VALUES LIKELY DIPPING TO BELOW 30 PERCENT AT MOST
LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WARMER READINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 80S, MODULATED BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AT TIMES, AS
SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY BRUSHES BY TO OUR NORTHWEST. LOWS WILL
MODERATE FROM THE 50S TO THE 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL RAIN
CHANCES (20-30%) WILL ALSO THREATEN AT TIMES FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL REMAINS VERY LOW. SOMEWHAT BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL
ARRIVE BY THURSDAY, AS A COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. THE TREND HAS BEEN TO DELAY THIS FRONT AND IT WILL LIKELY
ARRIVE IN A MORE WEAKENED CONDITION, LIMITING RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS, MAINLY ON FRIDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT
WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AT 5 TO 10 MPH BY
AFTERNOON WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF
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