160
FXUS63 KJKL 101123
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
723 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES AVERAGE 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY, AND 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY TO
WEDNESDAY.
- A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BUT AVERAGE RAINFALL FROM THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MEAGER.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE AREA WILL BE ON THE FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 601 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK, WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED EXCEPT TO UPDATE
THE LATEST HOURLY OBSERVATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
A PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY OUTRUN THE
FRONT AND THUS STALL ITS MOVEMENT SATURDAY BEFORE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHES THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH INCREASING
WESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES, AND DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY RISE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH, THUS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. RIDGE-VALLEY SPLITS WERE
ADDED TONIGHT, BUT VALLEYS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS,
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST LOCATIONS, BUT MOST LOCATIONS
IN THE 50S. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND THE COLD
FRONT SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA, EXPECTED COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S NORTH, BUT UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES NEARER TO THE FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTH. DRIER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE-TILTED UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY WILL
QUICKLY BECOME POSITIVE-TILTED AND EXTEND FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA
NORTHEAST UP THE EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE, A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
EJECT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES FROM TEXAS NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. EASTERN
KENTUCKY WILL RESIDE ON THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ACTIVE
STORM TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
AFTER A WARM AND DRY SUNDAY, A DECAYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY, WITH
ADDITIONAL LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS DISTURBANCES PUSH PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE
AREA. HOWEVER, IN MOST IF NOT ALL CASES THE BEST LIFT AND UPPER
SUPPORT WILL HAVE ALREADY OUTRUN ANY PRECIPITATION, LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THE PRECIPITATION AS
EASTERN KENTUCKY FALLS DEEPER INTO DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S EXPECTED EACH DAY, WITH A FEW 90-DEGREE READINGS
POSSIBLE ON THE WARMEST DAYS BEGINNING TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 723 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH HIGH THIN
CIRRUS GIVING WAY TO THICKENING LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS INCREASES AFTER ~04Z TO 06Z FROM THE NORTHWEST, WITH
THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IMPACTING NORTHERN
TERMINALS.
WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT THIS EVENING, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PICK UP THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING BUT WILL VEER TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION AT
~6 KTS OR LESS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...CMC
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